Kalonzo Musyoka seems to have an ace up his sleeve
Oct 18, 2007
<b>An East african perspective</b><br><br>In a titanic election like the forthcoming one in Kenya, no presidential candidate can be taken for granted or underestimated. Not even if that candidate is trailing last in opinion polls as Kalonzo Musyoka is doing.
JERRY OKUNGU
An East african perspective
In a titanic election like the forthcoming one in Kenya, no presidential candidate can be taken for granted or underestimated. Not even if that candidate is trailing last in opinion polls as Kalonzo Musyoka is doing.
The other day I bumped into my long-time friend Dr. Josephine Ojiambo, the daughter of Kalonzo Musyoka’s running mate and a KANU operative. She told me something that has refused to go away from my mind; that this time round, the stakes are too high for both the winner and the loser.
In prodding her, it was obvious that she had bought into the idea that like Raila Odinga had predicted, this coming presidential election will be a two-horse race between him and President Kibaki. The stakes the good doctor was referring to had something to do with the personalities of Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki against the backdrop of their ethnic communities.
For Kibaki, it will be the fight of his life to avoid going down in the history of Kenyan politics as the first president who lost an election while in office. Coming from a Kikuyu community that dominated Kenyan politics for the first 15 years of the nation’s independence, it would be tragic for the community to lose sweet power that they clamoured for, for close to a quarter of a century when Moi ruled the land with an iron fist.
The rivalry between the Luo and Kikuyu communities arising from Jomo Kenyatta’s mistreatment of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga soon after independence is another factor that can only be wished away. As much as Kibaki is under pressure not to let go of power from the House of Mumbi, Raila Odinga is under extreme pressure to blow up the myth that no Luo can be president of Kenya.
Just like Kibaki, Raila Odinga must fight the fight of his life since this is his best chance to win the presidency. If he doesn’t win, he will have no fighting spirit for subsequent battles with the attendant retribution against his followers should Kibaki retain the tenancy at the House on the Hill.
Be that as it may, I have been observing Kalonzo Musyoka’s campaign and body language at public functions and what I have observed is unusual confidence rarely found in potential losers. Two theories can be deduced from this behaviour. Either Kalonzo knows something the opinion polls are not telling us or he has plan B that he will fall back on when the chips are down. It also could mean that Kalonzo Musyoka has not exposed his personal fortunes in this campaign in which case even if he loses, he will have made a political statement of some sorts and still enjoy his life as a respectable loser.
However, watching his body language at Darius Mbela’s funeral in Wundanyi the other day, when he met his former colleagues in the ODM, the embrace and utterances of Kalonzo indicated that he had insured himself against the vagaries of a political defeat. He left no doubt in our minds that he would be ready to join the Raila government as ‘an extended’ Orange Family member if he lost.
He asked Odinga and his Pentagon colleagues to do the same should Kalonzo beat them at the polls. I saw Kalonzo’s crowds at Chepalungu in Rift Valley a few weeks back and in Nairobi the evening before his official launch and concluded that whatever the outcome, he will certainly be a more respectable loser and perform better than Simeon Nyachae did in 2002 when, like Kalonzo, Nyachae bolted out of the Rainbow Alliance on realising that he was not Odinga’s candidate for President.
As the opinion polls stand now, Kalonzo Musyoka cannot win the presidency in 2007 unless a miracle happens. The polls even deny him the kingmaker status because Raila Odinga seems to be running away with the polls. The latest polls, which have been dismissed by both Kibaki and Kalonzo indicate that even if Kalonzo joined Kibaki’s PNU today, they would still trail Odinga by at least 8 percentage points; a gap they must bridge before they think of defeating him. However, there is something more positive that the combined opposition between Kalonzo and Kibaki can do; they can provide a worthy and credible opposition to the Raila government to strengthen multiparty democracy and keep the Odinga regime on its toes.
Looking at the ODM euphoria that is sweeping across the nation, it is possible to imagine that without knowing it, Kenyans may be heading towards another one-party system unless Raila Odinga deliberately puts a good constitution in place to guarantee a vibrant opposition even if he wins with a landslide.
Kalonzo’s only hope for his presidency in Kenya is to become a strong Leader of Official Opposition and do a better job than Uhuru Kenyatta in readiness for battle in either 2012 or 2017 when Odinga finally calls it a day.
The reason why Kalonzo Musyoka is likely to land the job of official opposition if Raila Odinga wins the presidency is because Uhuru Kenyatta has proved an unworthy Leader of Official Opposition in the past.
Secondly, if Mwai Kibaki loses the elections for president, he will most likely retire to Othaya rather than come back to Parliament as an ordinary MP.
If Raila Odinga decides to emulate Nelson Mandela by serving one term, Kalonzo should be ready to battle it out with William Ruto, Musalia Mudavadi or Joseph Nyagah in 2012, assuming that the ODM Pentagon will still be intact and that no other stronger candidates will have emerged either within the ODM ranks or among the current crop of PNU collaborators.
jerryokungu@hotmail.com
An East african perspective
In a titanic election like the forthcoming one in Kenya, no presidential candidate can be taken for granted or underestimated. Not even if that candidate is trailing last in opinion polls as Kalonzo Musyoka is doing.
The other day I bumped into my long-time friend Dr. Josephine Ojiambo, the daughter of Kalonzo Musyoka’s running mate and a KANU operative. She told me something that has refused to go away from my mind; that this time round, the stakes are too high for both the winner and the loser.
In prodding her, it was obvious that she had bought into the idea that like Raila Odinga had predicted, this coming presidential election will be a two-horse race between him and President Kibaki. The stakes the good doctor was referring to had something to do with the personalities of Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki against the backdrop of their ethnic communities.
For Kibaki, it will be the fight of his life to avoid going down in the history of Kenyan politics as the first president who lost an election while in office. Coming from a Kikuyu community that dominated Kenyan politics for the first 15 years of the nation’s independence, it would be tragic for the community to lose sweet power that they clamoured for, for close to a quarter of a century when Moi ruled the land with an iron fist.
The rivalry between the Luo and Kikuyu communities arising from Jomo Kenyatta’s mistreatment of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga soon after independence is another factor that can only be wished away. As much as Kibaki is under pressure not to let go of power from the House of Mumbi, Raila Odinga is under extreme pressure to blow up the myth that no Luo can be president of Kenya.
Just like Kibaki, Raila Odinga must fight the fight of his life since this is his best chance to win the presidency. If he doesn’t win, he will have no fighting spirit for subsequent battles with the attendant retribution against his followers should Kibaki retain the tenancy at the House on the Hill.
Be that as it may, I have been observing Kalonzo Musyoka’s campaign and body language at public functions and what I have observed is unusual confidence rarely found in potential losers. Two theories can be deduced from this behaviour. Either Kalonzo knows something the opinion polls are not telling us or he has plan B that he will fall back on when the chips are down. It also could mean that Kalonzo Musyoka has not exposed his personal fortunes in this campaign in which case even if he loses, he will have made a political statement of some sorts and still enjoy his life as a respectable loser.
However, watching his body language at Darius Mbela’s funeral in Wundanyi the other day, when he met his former colleagues in the ODM, the embrace and utterances of Kalonzo indicated that he had insured himself against the vagaries of a political defeat. He left no doubt in our minds that he would be ready to join the Raila government as ‘an extended’ Orange Family member if he lost.
He asked Odinga and his Pentagon colleagues to do the same should Kalonzo beat them at the polls. I saw Kalonzo’s crowds at Chepalungu in Rift Valley a few weeks back and in Nairobi the evening before his official launch and concluded that whatever the outcome, he will certainly be a more respectable loser and perform better than Simeon Nyachae did in 2002 when, like Kalonzo, Nyachae bolted out of the Rainbow Alliance on realising that he was not Odinga’s candidate for President.
As the opinion polls stand now, Kalonzo Musyoka cannot win the presidency in 2007 unless a miracle happens. The polls even deny him the kingmaker status because Raila Odinga seems to be running away with the polls. The latest polls, which have been dismissed by both Kibaki and Kalonzo indicate that even if Kalonzo joined Kibaki’s PNU today, they would still trail Odinga by at least 8 percentage points; a gap they must bridge before they think of defeating him. However, there is something more positive that the combined opposition between Kalonzo and Kibaki can do; they can provide a worthy and credible opposition to the Raila government to strengthen multiparty democracy and keep the Odinga regime on its toes.
Looking at the ODM euphoria that is sweeping across the nation, it is possible to imagine that without knowing it, Kenyans may be heading towards another one-party system unless Raila Odinga deliberately puts a good constitution in place to guarantee a vibrant opposition even if he wins with a landslide.
Kalonzo’s only hope for his presidency in Kenya is to become a strong Leader of Official Opposition and do a better job than Uhuru Kenyatta in readiness for battle in either 2012 or 2017 when Odinga finally calls it a day.
The reason why Kalonzo Musyoka is likely to land the job of official opposition if Raila Odinga wins the presidency is because Uhuru Kenyatta has proved an unworthy Leader of Official Opposition in the past.
Secondly, if Mwai Kibaki loses the elections for president, he will most likely retire to Othaya rather than come back to Parliament as an ordinary MP.
If Raila Odinga decides to emulate Nelson Mandela by serving one term, Kalonzo should be ready to battle it out with William Ruto, Musalia Mudavadi or Joseph Nyagah in 2012, assuming that the ODM Pentagon will still be intact and that no other stronger candidates will have emerged either within the ODM ranks or among the current crop of PNU collaborators.
jerryokungu@hotmail.com