Kibaki still trailing Odinga in Kenyan polls
Dec 20, 2007
NAIROBI - Kenya’s opposition hopeful held his lead over President Mwai Kibaki in two final opinion polls released yesterday. The election, which some fear could provoke trouble, takes place on December 27.
NAIROBI - Kenya’s opposition hopeful held his lead over President Mwai Kibaki in two final opinion polls released yesterday. The election, which some fear could provoke trouble, takes place on December 27.
Infotrak gave Raila Odinga, a former minister for Kibaki now hoping to stop him winning a second term, 45.3% support versus the president’s 36.7.
Strategic Research gave the opposition front-runner a smaller lead of 43% against Kibaki’s 39.
Every public poll since September — except one — has given Odinga, 62, a successful businessman who nevertheless projects himself as a champion of the poor, a lead on Kibaki, 72.
Analysts believe the polls are accurate. But they say a week is a long time in Kenyan politics, and a win for Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is by no means guaranteed.
The opposition candidate commands support from his western Luo tribe, and has built up backing elsewhere among communities who feel Kibaki’s ethnic Kikuyu group, the largest in Kenya, has had it too good in recent years. But Kenyans are also grateful to Kibaki for turning the economy around, and achieving an average 5% annual growth after a slump under his predecessor Daniel arap Moi.
The two differ markedly in style. Kibaki projects a measured, statesmanlike image although he visibly relaxes when addressing the masses in the local Swahili language. Odinga is known as something of a firebrand, quick to court controversy and stoke up crowds.
But the pair differ little on major policies, both pledging to keep Kenya on its free-market economic track.
After a rough-and-tumble campaign, with several deaths and riots around political rallies, some fear the December 27 vote might be marred by violence or vote-rigging (related article under COLUMNIST on the left menu).
“The nightmare scenario is a narrow government win, which is perceived to have been achieved fraudulently. Then the opposition will take to the streets,†one diplomat said.
Hoping to counter that, foreign election observers are pouring into Kenya, while a local group has between 17,000 and 20,000 people to monitor each constituency.
“It is important that these elections are peaceful and credible,†said Ahmad Tejan Kabbah, the former president of Sierra Leone, who is chairing an observer mission for the 53-nation Commonwealth group.
“We hope that our presence to observe this important election will make a positive contribution to strengthening democracy in the country,†he said.
Some 14 million of Kenya’s 36 million people will be eligible to vote.
Infotrak gave Raila Odinga, a former minister for Kibaki now hoping to stop him winning a second term, 45.3% support versus the president’s 36.7.
Strategic Research gave the opposition front-runner a smaller lead of 43% against Kibaki’s 39.
Every public poll since September — except one — has given Odinga, 62, a successful businessman who nevertheless projects himself as a champion of the poor, a lead on Kibaki, 72.
Analysts believe the polls are accurate. But they say a week is a long time in Kenyan politics, and a win for Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is by no means guaranteed.
The opposition candidate commands support from his western Luo tribe, and has built up backing elsewhere among communities who feel Kibaki’s ethnic Kikuyu group, the largest in Kenya, has had it too good in recent years. But Kenyans are also grateful to Kibaki for turning the economy around, and achieving an average 5% annual growth after a slump under his predecessor Daniel arap Moi.
The two differ markedly in style. Kibaki projects a measured, statesmanlike image although he visibly relaxes when addressing the masses in the local Swahili language. Odinga is known as something of a firebrand, quick to court controversy and stoke up crowds.
But the pair differ little on major policies, both pledging to keep Kenya on its free-market economic track.
After a rough-and-tumble campaign, with several deaths and riots around political rallies, some fear the December 27 vote might be marred by violence or vote-rigging (related article under COLUMNIST on the left menu).
“The nightmare scenario is a narrow government win, which is perceived to have been achieved fraudulently. Then the opposition will take to the streets,†one diplomat said.
Hoping to counter that, foreign election observers are pouring into Kenya, while a local group has between 17,000 and 20,000 people to monitor each constituency.
“It is important that these elections are peaceful and credible,†said Ahmad Tejan Kabbah, the former president of Sierra Leone, who is chairing an observer mission for the 53-nation Commonwealth group.
“We hope that our presence to observe this important election will make a positive contribution to strengthening democracy in the country,†he said.
Some 14 million of Kenya’s 36 million people will be eligible to vote.