Uganda to become major maize supplier in East Africa

Feb 11, 2008

UGANDA is set to become the main supplier of maize in East Africa in the third quarter of 2008 should farm operations continue normally and the rains come on time, an industry bulletin has predicted.

By Ibrahim Kasita

UGANDA is set to become the main supplier of maize in East Africa in the third quarter of 2008 should farm operations continue normally and the rains come on time, an industry bulletin has predicted.

This is due to the likelihood of a reduced harvest in Kenya, destroyed surplus and reduced supply in Tanzania.

The political unrest in Kenya has led to destruction of harvests in the fields and disruption of storage operations.

In Tanzania due to the failure of the “mvuli” (sufficient) rains in the bi-modal areas, there could be a food deficit until the next harvesting period begins in the uni-modal areas of the southern highlands, which is expected late in the second quarter.

Uganda’s maize harvesting has ended in most areas. “Overall crop production for the second season was normal, ranging between 200,000 and 250,000 metric tonnes except in the flood-hit eastern districts where the crops were destroyed,” the East Africa Food and Trade Bulletin of The Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network read.

“About half of the production will be available for the market. Most of the farmers will sell the surplus as they wait for the long rains next season.”

In Kenya, the violence and the likely failure of the short rains will affect production from the eastern province and parts of the coastal lowlands. “The rains were inadequate in most of these areas and this could result into reduced production and lower national supply.”

“The short rains production provides about 20% of the national maize production, which is 270,000 metric tonnes. The grain basket of Kenya, which produces about two thirds of the national maize production and three quarters of the national wheat production, was worst hit.”

During 2007/08, maize production estimate for the Rift Valley was 1.8 million metric tonnes of which 20% was still in the farms by the time of the December 2007 election.

“Most farmers had planned to complete harvesting after the elections. About 30% (90,720 metric tonnes) that had not been harvested was destroyed during the violence.”

“For farmers who harvested earlier, fears are high for post-harvest losses of not less than 10% (30,000 metric tonnes) because of improper on-farm storage, chemical stores are also not in full operation, which will most likely lead to the loss of some of the maize. Some of the farmers have been displaced from their farms.”

Market operations have also been affected as some of the buying centres remain closed.

The National Cereals and Produce Board that had started buying maize late last year at an average price of $218 per metric tonne suspended buying after the unrest erupted.

It has resumed buying although there are minimal deliveries as farmers are reluctant to transfer their maize because of the remaining insecurity on the roads and the knowledge that payments from the previous season have been delayed.

The board had about 477,000 metric tonnes in its stores in December 2007 of which 350,000 were for Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR) and famine relief, while 115,000 were for commercial purposes. It is selling off part of the SGR at an average price of $218 per metric tonne.

Tanzania’s maize production prospects point towards the likelihood of a food deficit.

The “mvuli” rains failed in the northern region when they started late and disappeared shortly, resulting into crop failure or total crop loss in certain areas.

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