2011 fever hits political parties
Aug 22, 2008
2011 is three years away but the debate on the presidential elections is already raging, and political parties seem to be panicking before hand.
By Carol Natukunda
2011 is three years away but the debate on the presidential elections is already raging, and political parties seem to be panicking before hand.
The opposition giants - Forum for Democratic Change, the Uganda People’s Congress, the Conservative Party and Justice Forum - recently signed a pact, with hope that this will make them strong enough to capture power, come 2011.
The essence of the coalition is to have a unified electoral platform for 2011 and, perhaps, explore the possibility of fielding a single opposition candidate during the elections. Weeks later the Democratic Party, which initially snubbed the planned coalition, agreed to join.
And just when everybody was mulling over the feasibility of the coalition, the National Resistance Movement (NRM), was busy winning hearts in the eastern Uganda.
Although President Yoweri Museveni’s tour was intended to preach the Prosperity for All “gospel,†it suddenly took a political turn with the fourth term debate high on the agenda. For instance, only three days into his anti-poverty campaign, residents of Sironko district asked him to extend his tenure for a fourth term.
To show their support, 62 opposition FDC supporters defected to the NRM and immediately donned the party’s yellow t-shirts.
“The Basiita want you to hold the banner for the fourth term,†said Dr. Akisopher Kisoro, a Makerere university lecturer, who led a group of Bagisu-Basiita.
Before Teso, Museveni took his Prosperity for All tour to Bunyoro, West Nile and Bugisu.
Although Museveni has remained conspicuously silent on whether or not he intends to run for the fourth term, it is pretty clear the journey has begun.
Many times he took photos with supporters waving the four finger sign, which has become known as the fourth term symbol. Though the official position is that the ruling NRM party is yet to select a candidate for 2011, Vice President Gilbert Bukenya has already given a nod to his candidature. Whether President Museveni will be fronted can only be determined by the delegates’ conference.
But the question is - why is everyone panicking when there is still a lot of time before 2011?
Even the veteran politician, Bidandi Ssali attacked the opposition coalition, for instance, arguing that it was rather too early - that it would have been probably applicable in 2010. So why the panic?
The former presidential candidate Dr. Abed Bwanika thinks it has to do with the greed for power.
“Politicians are not only panicking they are greedy to rule, it is greed for power,†he observes.
“Everything is superficial. Look at the coalition. It happened among the top people, but at the grassroots, people do not know anything.â€
Some circles, however, argue that the first multiparty elections in 2006 opened the politicians’ eyes to a wider horizon.
Back then, it is said, most of them waited for the last minute to mobilise members, which arguably worked against them.
In fact, some candidates had never even set foot in the remotest of villages, until the campaigns – which led to their loss. And so, this time round, the zealous politicians feel that it is better to come out when it is still way too early, so that by 2011 they will have hopefully made a household name. Moreover, there are now several little known parties, which are all struggling for the common man’s attention.
Yet, some political leaders are genuinely worried that President Museveni could, indeed, run for a fourth term. They fear it will be an uphill task to unseat the President.
Museveni, who came to power in 1986 after a five-year guerilla war, won the presidential elections in 1996 and 2001 on individual merit, winning multi-party elections as the NRM candidate in 2006.
Although his winning score has been diminishing with each election cycle, he still has the highest rating of all possible candidates.
“We should not just pick any candidate. We must choose the most popular candidate who can manage the man (President Museveni),†says the FDC leader, Dr. Kizza Besigye.
Besigye has also been moving from district to district, taking every opportunity to hit at Museveni’s Government. Without saying it, he is definitely campaigning for 2011. Indeed he has said if party members front him, he will be glad to lead them in 2011.
The irony, however, is that the panic over the 2011 elections is not just a preserve of the opposition. Even in the NRM circles, there are rumours that some members are seething with anxiety.
Some legislators silently acknowledge that Museveni has been a great leader over the years; but that he is likely to go on a downward spiral should he get for another term.
The Electoral Commission records show that Museveni got 75% of the votes in 1996, 69% in 2001 and 59% in 2006. And yet, party members do not see a candidate who can be stronger than Museveni; or they never say so.
“He might stand, he is a good man, but he is growing old. That is our fear. But still who will fit in his shoes?†says an official on condition of anonymity.
However, much as it might seem like panic, enthusiasts feel that the 2011 frenzy is necessary.
“Everybody should congratulate us, for beginning the debate. It helps to break the monopoly and shape people’s minds to know about what lies ahead and who will be contesting,†says CP’s Ken Lukyamuzi.
Lukyamuzi also feels that the debate is keeping the ruling NRM party on its toes. “It is now that they are trying to wake up and not take Ugandans for granted. All the parties are in check,†he says.
The outgoing British High Commissioner, Francois Gordon, also approved of the current succession debate in Uganda.
“It is healthy to have such a debate but it would be clearly quite wrong for foreigners to become involved,†he said adding that the question of whether or not President Museveni should go for another term in office is ultimately a matter for Ugandans to decide.
Some people feel there are lessons to learn. The presidential terms limit should be returned, according to Prof. Frederick Ssempebwa who chaired the Uganda Constitutional Review Commission.
The absence of term limits, he argues, is what fuels the succession debate.
In 2005, Parliament amended the 1995 Constitution by deleting the article that limited presidential terms to two.
Although the Constitutional Review Commission recommended the removal of the term limits, Ssempebwa wrote a minority report opposing it.
“Democracy should ensure that there is change if it is needed. The experience in Africa is that leaders overstay, not because of popular choice but because they manipulate the system,†he observes.
“The saviour mentality is the instrument the praise singers use to campaign for perpetual rule of an individual,†Ssempebwa says.
2011 is three years away but the debate on the presidential elections is already raging, and political parties seem to be panicking before hand.
The opposition giants - Forum for Democratic Change, the Uganda People’s Congress, the Conservative Party and Justice Forum - recently signed a pact, with hope that this will make them strong enough to capture power, come 2011.
The essence of the coalition is to have a unified electoral platform for 2011 and, perhaps, explore the possibility of fielding a single opposition candidate during the elections. Weeks later the Democratic Party, which initially snubbed the planned coalition, agreed to join.
And just when everybody was mulling over the feasibility of the coalition, the National Resistance Movement (NRM), was busy winning hearts in the eastern Uganda.
Although President Yoweri Museveni’s tour was intended to preach the Prosperity for All “gospel,†it suddenly took a political turn with the fourth term debate high on the agenda. For instance, only three days into his anti-poverty campaign, residents of Sironko district asked him to extend his tenure for a fourth term.
To show their support, 62 opposition FDC supporters defected to the NRM and immediately donned the party’s yellow t-shirts.
“The Basiita want you to hold the banner for the fourth term,†said Dr. Akisopher Kisoro, a Makerere university lecturer, who led a group of Bagisu-Basiita.
Before Teso, Museveni took his Prosperity for All tour to Bunyoro, West Nile and Bugisu.
Although Museveni has remained conspicuously silent on whether or not he intends to run for the fourth term, it is pretty clear the journey has begun.
Many times he took photos with supporters waving the four finger sign, which has become known as the fourth term symbol. Though the official position is that the ruling NRM party is yet to select a candidate for 2011, Vice President Gilbert Bukenya has already given a nod to his candidature. Whether President Museveni will be fronted can only be determined by the delegates’ conference.
But the question is - why is everyone panicking when there is still a lot of time before 2011?
Even the veteran politician, Bidandi Ssali attacked the opposition coalition, for instance, arguing that it was rather too early - that it would have been probably applicable in 2010. So why the panic?
The former presidential candidate Dr. Abed Bwanika thinks it has to do with the greed for power.
“Politicians are not only panicking they are greedy to rule, it is greed for power,†he observes.
“Everything is superficial. Look at the coalition. It happened among the top people, but at the grassroots, people do not know anything.â€
Some circles, however, argue that the first multiparty elections in 2006 opened the politicians’ eyes to a wider horizon.
Back then, it is said, most of them waited for the last minute to mobilise members, which arguably worked against them.
In fact, some candidates had never even set foot in the remotest of villages, until the campaigns – which led to their loss. And so, this time round, the zealous politicians feel that it is better to come out when it is still way too early, so that by 2011 they will have hopefully made a household name. Moreover, there are now several little known parties, which are all struggling for the common man’s attention.
Yet, some political leaders are genuinely worried that President Museveni could, indeed, run for a fourth term. They fear it will be an uphill task to unseat the President.
Museveni, who came to power in 1986 after a five-year guerilla war, won the presidential elections in 1996 and 2001 on individual merit, winning multi-party elections as the NRM candidate in 2006.
Although his winning score has been diminishing with each election cycle, he still has the highest rating of all possible candidates.
“We should not just pick any candidate. We must choose the most popular candidate who can manage the man (President Museveni),†says the FDC leader, Dr. Kizza Besigye.
Besigye has also been moving from district to district, taking every opportunity to hit at Museveni’s Government. Without saying it, he is definitely campaigning for 2011. Indeed he has said if party members front him, he will be glad to lead them in 2011.
The irony, however, is that the panic over the 2011 elections is not just a preserve of the opposition. Even in the NRM circles, there are rumours that some members are seething with anxiety.
Some legislators silently acknowledge that Museveni has been a great leader over the years; but that he is likely to go on a downward spiral should he get for another term.
The Electoral Commission records show that Museveni got 75% of the votes in 1996, 69% in 2001 and 59% in 2006. And yet, party members do not see a candidate who can be stronger than Museveni; or they never say so.
“He might stand, he is a good man, but he is growing old. That is our fear. But still who will fit in his shoes?†says an official on condition of anonymity.
However, much as it might seem like panic, enthusiasts feel that the 2011 frenzy is necessary.
“Everybody should congratulate us, for beginning the debate. It helps to break the monopoly and shape people’s minds to know about what lies ahead and who will be contesting,†says CP’s Ken Lukyamuzi.
Lukyamuzi also feels that the debate is keeping the ruling NRM party on its toes. “It is now that they are trying to wake up and not take Ugandans for granted. All the parties are in check,†he says.
The outgoing British High Commissioner, Francois Gordon, also approved of the current succession debate in Uganda.
“It is healthy to have such a debate but it would be clearly quite wrong for foreigners to become involved,†he said adding that the question of whether or not President Museveni should go for another term in office is ultimately a matter for Ugandans to decide.
Some people feel there are lessons to learn. The presidential terms limit should be returned, according to Prof. Frederick Ssempebwa who chaired the Uganda Constitutional Review Commission.
The absence of term limits, he argues, is what fuels the succession debate.
In 2005, Parliament amended the 1995 Constitution by deleting the article that limited presidential terms to two.
Although the Constitutional Review Commission recommended the removal of the term limits, Ssempebwa wrote a minority report opposing it.
“Democracy should ensure that there is change if it is needed. The experience in Africa is that leaders overstay, not because of popular choice but because they manipulate the system,†he observes.
“The saviour mentality is the instrument the praise singers use to campaign for perpetual rule of an individual,†Ssempebwa says.