Who will be Nigeria's next President?

Apr 09, 2007

AS political violence intensifies in Nigeria, two front-runners have emerged in the country’s elections that will take place this month. The election on April 21 is being hailed as a landmark because it will be the first democratic transition between presidencies in the nation’s history.

By Alexis Okeowo

AS political violence intensifies in Nigeria, two front-runners have emerged in the country’s elections that will take place this month. The election on April 21 is being hailed as a landmark because it will be the first democratic transition between presidencies in the nation’s history.

Power has traditionally been shifted through military coups in the 47 years since Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation and top oil producer, gained independence from Britain.

Nigeria returned to civilian rule in 1999 after 30 years of almost continuous military rule. The ruling People Democratic Party’s candidate Umaru Yar’dua and former military leader Muhammadu Buhari appear to be leading the race, according to Nigerian analysts.

Though two most recent court rulings last week failed to resolve if Vice-President Abubakar Atiku will be able to run, it is uncertain whether he would even have a viable chance in the polls. Atiku has been disqualified for a fraud indictment and is fighting a court battle to get his name back on the ballot before the election deadline.

Many analysts believe that because Atiku was against current President Olusegun Obasanjo’s bid to run for a third term, Obasanjo is using the fraud charges as a means of retribution to stop him from ascending to the presidency.

Human Rights Watch has said that poorly kept voter registration records and the government’s use of its anti-graft agency to bar opposition candidates, including Atiku, have raised doubts about the fairness and credibility of the polls.

Atiku is representing the opposition Action Congress Party. As a result of the vice- president’s troubles, Buhari could become a strong voice for the opposition in the county. Voting will start on April 14, when Nigerians choose state governors and state house of assembly members.

Elections for president and the National Assembly are scheduled to follow a week later. The presidential poll could go into a run-off if no clear winner emerges in the first round. Obasanjo is constitutionally required to hand over on May 29, which would mark the first time one elected leader hands power to another.

More than 70 people have already been killed in political violence in the last five months, according to Nigerian press.

Umaru Yar’dua is a little-known and relatively reclusive Muslim governor from a northern state, Katsina. A former chemistry teacher, Yar’dua has a political pedigree that dates back to the 1960s when his father was appointed as a minister in the post-independence administration. His late elder brother who was an army general served as President Olusegun Obasanjo’s deputy when the president was Nigeria’s military ruler during the 1970s. Yar’Adua’s emergence as the ruling People’s Democratic Party’s candidate in the presidential election in April 2007 owes to the support of President Obasanjo.

Nigerian presidency sources have told media that Obasanjo used a mixture of inducements and threats of investigation by the anti-graft agency to persuade 10 influential state governors to withdraw from the race and back Yar’Adua.

Analysts say that by backing Yar’Adua to succeed him, Obasanjo is hoping to continue to have presidential influence even after he steps down. Although he is reputed to be prudent in managing funds in Katsina State where he has been governor for the past seven years, critics say contracts have gone to companies with links to his family’s vast businesses.

However, he is one of the few serving governors not being investigated for corruption. Yar’dua has extensively campaigned for extending Obasanjo’s free-market reforms. Come election time, the candidate will be relying on the party’s control of over 28 of the 36 states to deliver votes.

As an undergraduate student in Nigeria’s Ahmadu Bello University, Yar’Adua was a self-confessed Marxist. He has been described as independent-minded, despite Obasanjo’s influence, and a man of few airs. Yar’dua’s critics, however, say that he can be aloof and intolerant to opposition.

Muhammadu Buhari is a former military ruler whose current bid for president is not his first. Buhari lost to Obasanjo in the 2003 elections and spent the next two years contesting the result in court until the Supreme Court ruled in Obasanjo’s favour in 2005.

This time, he secured the nomination of the main opposition party, the All Nigeria Peoples Party. Buhari has already ruled Nigeria — from January 1984 until August 1985, in a period remembered for human rights abuses and an executive campaign against corruption.

As a Muslim from Katsina State, he has had to deny allegations that he has a radical Islamist agenda given his support for Sharia law in the north. This proved a problem for him in the 2003 election, where he failed to secure enough support among Christians in the south.
Though with a poor human rights record, he is seen among Nigerian politicians as being relatively honest.

By most accounts, the candidate had a heavy-handed and repressive rule, waging war against businessmen and political leaders he viewed as being corrupt. He also introduced a decree to limit press freedom. Himself deposed in a coup, Buhari still defends his own military coup of 1983 that ousted Nigeria’s last civilian government led by Alhaji Shehu Shagari.

Consequently, Buhari’s commitment to democracy is in question. Vice-President Atiku has gone so far as to say that Buhari is “not a democrat.”

For the upcoming election, the retired general has said that he has set up a system to monitor the results, and it is possible that he will call for mass protests if he views the election as being unfair.

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