Half of the world population will live in urban areas by the year 2008

Jun 27, 2007

KAMPALA’s population is exploding. The capital had about 450,000 inhabitants in 1980. A quarter of a century later, it has three times as many. The city’s population was estimated at 1,358,800 in 2006, according to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, an increase of almost 50,000 compared to the pre

By Arthur Baguma

KAMPALA’s population is exploding. The capital had about 450,000 inhabitants in 1980. A quarter of a century later, it has three times as many. The city’s population was estimated at 1,358,800 in 2006, according to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, an increase of almost 50,000 compared to the previous year.

The city has transformed from a dusty colonial administrative post to a thriving political and economical metropolis in the last century. However, it is also choking under the weight of rapid urbanisation, with increasing traffic jams, air pollution, garbage, lack of proper housing, sanitation and unemployment.

Kampala illustrates the challenges faced by rapidly growing cities in developing countries, the theme of the 2007 State of World Population Report of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), released yesterday.

This situation is not unique for Kampala. Cities are growing at a staggering pace all over the world. More people live in cities today than ever before, according to UNFPA. In the 20th Century alone, the world’s urban population grew more than 10-fold: from 220 million to 2.8 billion. The world’s towns and cities are growing at a rate of more than 1.2 million per week.

By 2008, more people will be living in cities than in rural areas. “For the first time in history, more than half the world’s human population or 3.3 billion people, will be living in urban areas,” states the report titled ‘Unleashing the Potential of Urban Growth’. “By 2030, this is expected to swell to almost 5 billion.”

Poverty
The Population Fund warns that many of the urban dwellers will be poor, as urban growth is particularly high in the developing world. Africa’s urban population is expected to more than double between 2000 and 2030, from 294 million to 742 million. “By 2030, the towns and cities of the developing world will make up 81% of all urban humanity.”

Poverty is increasing faster in urban than in rural areas, the report says. “One billion people already live in urban slums, some 90% of them live in developing countries,” says the report.

The situation is particularly bad in Africa. “In sub-Saharan Africa, urbanisation has become virtually synonymous with slum growth: 72% of the region’s urban population lives under slum conditions.”

The report cites lack of decent housing conditions as one of the main challenges of urbanisation. “Dealing effectively with shelter is a key priority in poverty reduction efforts,” UNFPA advises.

Another major issue is land. “Providing minimally serviced land for the poor will help meet present and future needs. With secure tenure, street access, water, sanitation, waste disposal and power, poor people will do their own building,” the report states.

Environmental disasters
The UN also warns about the negative environmental impact of urbanisation. “Cities are highly vulnerable to natural disasters. The impacts of such disasters are particularly significant for the poorest urban populations.”

Climate change, the report predicts, will have its greatest effect on cities. “Low elevation coastal zones subject to flooding include 13% of the world’s urban population. Almost two-thirds of all cities having more than 5 billion inhabitants are in such zones.”

Smaller towns
Contrary to the general belief, the report says, smaller towns and cities of less than 500,000 people still harbour a majority, or 52%, of the world’s urban population. “By comparison, the 20 mega-cities, with more than 10 million people, have about 9% of the total urban population.”

Small cities are less often in the news and rarely a priority for planners and policy-makers, the report notes. Smaller cities have more unaddressed problems and fewer human, financial and technical resources at their disposal. Towns with less than 100,000 inhabitants are generally underserved in housing, transportation, piped water, water disposal and other services. Yet, UNFPA argues, urbanisation in small cities presents an easier task than in big cities.

Concerns and benefits
This rapid urban population growth poses both concerns and benefits, UNFPA argues. “No country in the industrial age has ever achieved significant economic growth without urbanisation,” says the report.

“Cities concentrate poverty, but they also represent people’s best hope of escaping it…If cities create environmental problems, they also contain the solutions.”

The challenge, the UN Population Fund argues, is learning how to maximise the benefits of urbanisation and minimise the harmful consequences. It calls for pre-emptive action by cities to prepare for future growth. “The changes are too large and will happen too fast to allow planners and policy-makers simply to react.”

Rather than utopian master plans, the organisation stresses the need for realistic planning, which accepts urban growth as inevitable.

Is Uganda prepared?
Although Uganda still has a relatively small urban population, with only 13% of all people living in towns, the country’s urban centres are growing at a rate of 4.8% per year, which is the third highest in East Africa. Burundi is the highest, with a 6,8% urban growth, followed by Rwanda (6.5%).

Silvano Katsigaire, the commissioner for physical planning at the Ministry of Lands, Housing and Urban Development, announced last month that the Government was redesigning 76 urban centres. Most of the towns were last designed in 1962. During the planning exercise, experts noted that urban planning in the past had been done “in piece-meal and at a pace which did not match with the rate at which society was growing”.

Dr Augustus Nuwagaba, a senior don at Makerere and a poverty expert, says the solution for many of the problems that come with urbanisation is education and skills training.

“The poverty levels in slums would not be alarming if the quality of the population was improved through skills development,” he says.

Urban Tibamanya, the state minister for Urban Planning, acknowledges that there is a big challenge in tackling problems related to rapid urbanisation. Addressing poverty in urban areas remains one of the key priorities of the Government, he argues.

As Kampala expands, he predicts, more satellite cities will emerge. “The Government’s urbanisation plans are looking far beyond Kampala,” he notes.

Highlights
-By 2008, more than half of the world’s population or 3.3 billion will live in cities. lThe number of urban people living in towns is expected to rise to almost 5 billion by 2030

-The world’s towns and cities are growing at a rate of more than 1.2 million people a week.

-Developing countries will account for 93% of all urban growth between 2000 and 2030

-Between 2000 and 2030, Africa’s urban population will increase from 294 million to 742 million.

-Smaller towns and cities (fewer than 500,000 people) still harbour a majority (52%) of the world’s urban population.

-In most countries, natural population increase, rather than rural-urban migration is the main factor in urban growth.

-One billion people live in urban slums , 90% of them in developing countries.

-In sub-Saharan Africa, 72% of the urban population lives in slums.

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