PDP rigged most but no party can boast of clean hands
Jul 18, 2007
I was in Nigeria all of last week. It was my first time to be in the country since the inauguration of President Umaru Musa Yar’ Adua as President following an election universally believed to have been flawed practically in all senses.
Dr. Tajudeen
I was in Nigeria all of last week. It was my first time to be in the country since the inauguration of President Umaru Musa Yar’ Adua as President following an election universally believed to have been flawed practically in all senses.
There were threats by very angry politicians and aggrieved activists that Yar’ Adua would not be sworn in come May 29. The first test of that threat was May 1 when the Nigeria Labour Congress called for mass protests on its traditional May Day activities.
Many aggrieved Nigerians thought it could become a wider protest against the stolen mandate. It came to pass without the kind of mass support that was expected. However, a more popular protest called by the NLC after Yar’ Adua had been sworn in was more successful because it was based on issues (yet another hike in domestic oil price) that most Nigerians can easily relate to.
Anybody with a rational take on the dynamics of power should have realised that flawed as the elections were, it was highly unlikely that the new President would not have been sworn in in spite of the electoral contests in the courts from the candidates of other opposition parties.
To an unwilling audience of friends and compatriots in Abuja I warned against making threats that cannot be enforced. Moses had more luck in his exile on the mountains. Part of the problem with the protests had to do with the anomalous situation of there being no credible leader to rally the population and transform their anger into political force that cannot be ignored.
The truth is that all the parties rigged where they could but the PDP, being the ruling party at the centre, had more powers and better opportunities for robbing people of their mandate essentially through its control of the result declaration from an openly partisan Electoral Commission. In spite of that vast power in areas that are very strong opposition turfs like Lagos or Kano state the incumbent governors used their popularity and advantages of incumbency to successfully challenge PDP machinery and retain their power. Therefore, when it comes to rigging, most of the politicians cannot thump their chest about who is cleaner.
Yes, Nigerians were robbed of their votes but did not have the sense of loss at national level in terms of whether candidate A or B had been their denied choice. The fact that the politicians were not calling for the results to be cancelled in the areas where they won also presented other challenges. How can the election be flawed only where the ruling party had won?
Nigerians may be aggrieved and remain extremely bitter but not many are willing to die for any politician anymore since there are no fundamental differences between them apart from ‘I want to ‘chop’ too’ or ‘I want to be this or that’ without any bother about policies or alternative programmes for the emancipation of the populace from poverty and want amidst plenty.
The situation is further complicated by two important factors. One, there is a resignation to the fact that Yar’ Adua would probably have defeated the closet two of his many rivals. Two, the personality of Yar’ Adua himself as non-confrontational, being unknown and therefore greatly underestimated focused attention on Obasanjo who had orchestrated his nomination and presided over his anointment.
There was and still is great anger at the former president. I was hoping that by now there would be a more sober atmosphere in the country but how wrong can I be! There are still many grieving democrats who are refusing to accept that Yar’ Adua saving an unlikely decision in the tribunal to nullify the election will remain president for the next four years.
Talking to the usual chattering classes of media pundits, NGO activists and opposition sections of the political class, you will make the mistake of believing that General Olushegun Obasanjo is still the tenant in Aso Rock. Every decision or non-decision of Yar’ Adua is analysed through the lenses of Obasanjo still driving from the back seat from his Ota farm.
In part, Yar’ Adua’s style of silence in the face of public pressure makes him vulnerable to these accusations of being a puppet of the former President.
Nigerians are so used to militarised leadership where things are done ‘with immediate effect’ by executive fiat that they think Yar’ Adua is indecisive for taking time before nominating his cabinet and making senior appointments in drips.
It took Obasanjo quite some time to exert control over his government. In fact, until his second term, he did not have full control of his administration. Unfortunately for Yar’ Adua he does not have four years to wait. However, he will not act in the ways critics of Obasanjo would like. They want him to go after Obasanjo openly which will not be wise given the power balance in the ruling PDP.
A president who does not know where the cutlery is cannot start inviting people to dinner! But like it happened between Obasanjo and those vested interests that brought him to power what goes round comes round. Yar’ Adua will sooner than later enforce his footprints on his administration and the party that brought him to power. Obasanjo should know better however the elixir of power is difficult to shake off. It is more deadly in its hangover.
It may not be the anti- Obasanjo elements alone who believe he is the power behind the throne, Obasanjo too may be suffering that grand delusion. For now Yar’ Adua can enjoy the unusual convergence between the two. This will mean that all his bad decisions and failure to make any can be blamed on Obasanjo’s pressures and the good ones can be interpreted as evidence of being his own man!
He may actually make it his mantra that it is good for him to be permanently underestimated by his opponents which may give him room to do what he really wants to do.
I was in Nigeria all of last week. It was my first time to be in the country since the inauguration of President Umaru Musa Yar’ Adua as President following an election universally believed to have been flawed practically in all senses.
There were threats by very angry politicians and aggrieved activists that Yar’ Adua would not be sworn in come May 29. The first test of that threat was May 1 when the Nigeria Labour Congress called for mass protests on its traditional May Day activities.
Many aggrieved Nigerians thought it could become a wider protest against the stolen mandate. It came to pass without the kind of mass support that was expected. However, a more popular protest called by the NLC after Yar’ Adua had been sworn in was more successful because it was based on issues (yet another hike in domestic oil price) that most Nigerians can easily relate to.
Anybody with a rational take on the dynamics of power should have realised that flawed as the elections were, it was highly unlikely that the new President would not have been sworn in in spite of the electoral contests in the courts from the candidates of other opposition parties.
To an unwilling audience of friends and compatriots in Abuja I warned against making threats that cannot be enforced. Moses had more luck in his exile on the mountains. Part of the problem with the protests had to do with the anomalous situation of there being no credible leader to rally the population and transform their anger into political force that cannot be ignored.
The truth is that all the parties rigged where they could but the PDP, being the ruling party at the centre, had more powers and better opportunities for robbing people of their mandate essentially through its control of the result declaration from an openly partisan Electoral Commission. In spite of that vast power in areas that are very strong opposition turfs like Lagos or Kano state the incumbent governors used their popularity and advantages of incumbency to successfully challenge PDP machinery and retain their power. Therefore, when it comes to rigging, most of the politicians cannot thump their chest about who is cleaner.
Yes, Nigerians were robbed of their votes but did not have the sense of loss at national level in terms of whether candidate A or B had been their denied choice. The fact that the politicians were not calling for the results to be cancelled in the areas where they won also presented other challenges. How can the election be flawed only where the ruling party had won?
Nigerians may be aggrieved and remain extremely bitter but not many are willing to die for any politician anymore since there are no fundamental differences between them apart from ‘I want to ‘chop’ too’ or ‘I want to be this or that’ without any bother about policies or alternative programmes for the emancipation of the populace from poverty and want amidst plenty.
The situation is further complicated by two important factors. One, there is a resignation to the fact that Yar’ Adua would probably have defeated the closet two of his many rivals. Two, the personality of Yar’ Adua himself as non-confrontational, being unknown and therefore greatly underestimated focused attention on Obasanjo who had orchestrated his nomination and presided over his anointment.
There was and still is great anger at the former president. I was hoping that by now there would be a more sober atmosphere in the country but how wrong can I be! There are still many grieving democrats who are refusing to accept that Yar’ Adua saving an unlikely decision in the tribunal to nullify the election will remain president for the next four years.
Talking to the usual chattering classes of media pundits, NGO activists and opposition sections of the political class, you will make the mistake of believing that General Olushegun Obasanjo is still the tenant in Aso Rock. Every decision or non-decision of Yar’ Adua is analysed through the lenses of Obasanjo still driving from the back seat from his Ota farm.
In part, Yar’ Adua’s style of silence in the face of public pressure makes him vulnerable to these accusations of being a puppet of the former President.
Nigerians are so used to militarised leadership where things are done ‘with immediate effect’ by executive fiat that they think Yar’ Adua is indecisive for taking time before nominating his cabinet and making senior appointments in drips.
It took Obasanjo quite some time to exert control over his government. In fact, until his second term, he did not have full control of his administration. Unfortunately for Yar’ Adua he does not have four years to wait. However, he will not act in the ways critics of Obasanjo would like. They want him to go after Obasanjo openly which will not be wise given the power balance in the ruling PDP.
A president who does not know where the cutlery is cannot start inviting people to dinner! But like it happened between Obasanjo and those vested interests that brought him to power what goes round comes round. Yar’ Adua will sooner than later enforce his footprints on his administration and the party that brought him to power. Obasanjo should know better however the elixir of power is difficult to shake off. It is more deadly in its hangover.
It may not be the anti- Obasanjo elements alone who believe he is the power behind the throne, Obasanjo too may be suffering that grand delusion. For now Yar’ Adua can enjoy the unusual convergence between the two. This will mean that all his bad decisions and failure to make any can be blamed on Obasanjo’s pressures and the good ones can be interpreted as evidence of being his own man!
He may actually make it his mantra that it is good for him to be permanently underestimated by his opponents which may give him room to do what he really wants to do.