Independents weaken parties
Jan 15, 2006
ONE of the remarkable things about the forthcoming parliamentary and local government elections is the big number of independent candidates. I am not in the least surprised by this.
By John Kakande
ONE of the remarkable things about the forthcoming parliamentary and local government elections is the big number of independent candidates. I am not in the least surprised by this.
A provisional Electoral Commission report covering 41 districts indicated that there were at least 34 independents vying for district chairmanship. On the other hand, the NRM has 40 candidates, FDC 12, UPC six and DP has two. There were more LC 5 candidates running as independents than all the candidates standing on the tickets of the three main opposition parties — FDC, UPC and DP. This is also likely to be the case with parliamentary candidates.
I predicted in October last year that it was very likely the first multiparty elections would be characterised by a big number of independents. Of all the parties, it is the NRM that is most troubled by independents. A significant number of independents are NRM supporters who either lost or opted not to participate in the party primaries.
Although the NRM constitution categorically prohibits members from contesting as independents and against the official party candidates, the party leadership is so far reluctant to take a drastic action to discipline them.
It is obvious that NRM fears to expel the errant members in the midst of the presidential elections.
If the errant members are expelled, their supporters could vote against President Museveni in protest. In view of this, it is very unlikely that any disciplinary action would be taken against them. The party leadership appears to have opted to handle the dissidents softly, only criticising their action. President Museveni has also held a number of meetings with the so-called losers to explain to them the dangers in their action. But still many have gone ahead and stood as independents. This soft approach will actually create more problems for NRM. It may encourage more members to be independents.
It is not only NRM having problems with independents. Both UPC and DP are experiencing similar problems, though not at the same magnitude. In Makindye East, for instance, MP Michael Mabikke who is now considered a DP dissident is running against the party’s treasurer Sarah Kanyike Sebaggala. In Lubaga Division, there are two DP members also vying for the chairmanship. The incumbent, Justin Ssendikadiwa, is running as an independent against Winnie Makumbi who is running on the party ticket.
For UPC, the problem is more complicated. A number of its heavyweights in Lango including MPs Cecilia Ogwal, Omara Atubo and Ben Wacha are running as independents.
UPC has fielded Jimmy Akena, the son of the late party president, Milton Obote, to dislodge Ogwal from Lira Municipality. In effect UPC in Lango will be fighting at two fronts — against the party dissidents and the NRM. The consequences could be disastrous. It is an extremely risky political gamble that could cost UPC dearly in political terms.
It is also notable that of all the political parties, only the NRM has managed to field candidates across the country. The UPC candidates are largely in northern and eastern Uganda. FDC has a handful of candidates in the west. But FDC has a significant number of candidates in eastern and northern and a handful in the central region. DP is largely fielding candidates in the central region and hardly any in other regions. None of the three main opposition parties has so far established a nation-wide political base.
This means it is extremely difficult for UPC, FDC or DP to win power single-handedly. If an opposition presidential candidate wins the forthcoming elections, he will have to work with the other parties to secure a working majority in Parliament.
ONE of the remarkable things about the forthcoming parliamentary and local government elections is the big number of independent candidates. I am not in the least surprised by this.
A provisional Electoral Commission report covering 41 districts indicated that there were at least 34 independents vying for district chairmanship. On the other hand, the NRM has 40 candidates, FDC 12, UPC six and DP has two. There were more LC 5 candidates running as independents than all the candidates standing on the tickets of the three main opposition parties — FDC, UPC and DP. This is also likely to be the case with parliamentary candidates.
I predicted in October last year that it was very likely the first multiparty elections would be characterised by a big number of independents. Of all the parties, it is the NRM that is most troubled by independents. A significant number of independents are NRM supporters who either lost or opted not to participate in the party primaries.
Although the NRM constitution categorically prohibits members from contesting as independents and against the official party candidates, the party leadership is so far reluctant to take a drastic action to discipline them.
It is obvious that NRM fears to expel the errant members in the midst of the presidential elections.
If the errant members are expelled, their supporters could vote against President Museveni in protest. In view of this, it is very unlikely that any disciplinary action would be taken against them. The party leadership appears to have opted to handle the dissidents softly, only criticising their action. President Museveni has also held a number of meetings with the so-called losers to explain to them the dangers in their action. But still many have gone ahead and stood as independents. This soft approach will actually create more problems for NRM. It may encourage more members to be independents.
It is not only NRM having problems with independents. Both UPC and DP are experiencing similar problems, though not at the same magnitude. In Makindye East, for instance, MP Michael Mabikke who is now considered a DP dissident is running against the party’s treasurer Sarah Kanyike Sebaggala. In Lubaga Division, there are two DP members also vying for the chairmanship. The incumbent, Justin Ssendikadiwa, is running as an independent against Winnie Makumbi who is running on the party ticket.
For UPC, the problem is more complicated. A number of its heavyweights in Lango including MPs Cecilia Ogwal, Omara Atubo and Ben Wacha are running as independents.
UPC has fielded Jimmy Akena, the son of the late party president, Milton Obote, to dislodge Ogwal from Lira Municipality. In effect UPC in Lango will be fighting at two fronts — against the party dissidents and the NRM. The consequences could be disastrous. It is an extremely risky political gamble that could cost UPC dearly in political terms.
It is also notable that of all the political parties, only the NRM has managed to field candidates across the country. The UPC candidates are largely in northern and eastern Uganda. FDC has a handful of candidates in the west. But FDC has a significant number of candidates in eastern and northern and a handful in the central region. DP is largely fielding candidates in the central region and hardly any in other regions. None of the three main opposition parties has so far established a nation-wide political base.
This means it is extremely difficult for UPC, FDC or DP to win power single-handedly. If an opposition presidential candidate wins the forthcoming elections, he will have to work with the other parties to secure a working majority in Parliament.