Why Ankole, Kigezi rejected FDC party
Mar 02, 2006
LAST week’s presidential and parliamentary elections saw President Yoweri Museveni and the NRM sweep all the constituencies in Ankole and Kigezi. This was a huge setback to the opposition, especially the FDC.
Raymond Baguma
LAST week’s presidential and parliamentary elections saw President Yoweri Museveni and the NRM sweep all the constituencies in Ankole and Kigezi. This was a huge setback to the opposition, especially the FDC.
One of the reasons that put FDC leader Col. Kizza Besigye above other party leaders is that he hails from the same region as President Museveni. Thus many believe that he stands better chances of getting a substantial number of votes from the western region compared to other opposition leaders, while at the same time he would be assured of votes from other regions that are opposition strongholds.
However, as the results of last week’s polls show, the FDC performed far below expectations as the NRM scooped all the 33 seats of directly elected MPs in the 10 districts that comprise Ankole and Kigezi, while pro-NRM independents such as Tress Bucyanayandi (Bufumbira West) were also elected. On the other hand, FDC heavyweights and incumbent MPs Augustine Ruzindana (Ruhama), Jack Sabiiti (Rukiga) and John Kazoora (Kashari), and party officials Chapaa Karuhanga (Ruhinda) and Ingrid Turinawe (Rukungiri), among others, lost to NRM candidates.
Many factors could explain why the western region rejected FDC. First, some of the FDC candidates stood against strong NRM people. Ruzindana faced First Lady Janet Museveni while Chapaa faced lands minister Kahinda Otafiire. There were other ministers like Mwesigwa Rukutana and Jim Muhwezi. Voters here seem to believe that people who are already in government have more to offer in terms of lobbying for social services and jobs.
Apart from ministers, there is a big number of people from here who are in government employment. These people, many of them senior officers in the UPDF, Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) and other government agencies/departments are also powerful in their home areas and have helped their relatives and friends to get education, jobs and businesses. There are many people from here now living, studying or working in Kampala just because their kin are in government. These would probably suffer if President Museveni was voted out. Therefore no effort is spared in fighting to maintain the status quo.
Therefore, people in Ankole and Kigezi think that voting out Museveni would mean voting their own benefactors out of their positions. In effect it would mean biting the hand that feeds them, since there is no guarantee that an FDC government would keep their people in the positions they currently hold. It appears FDC read the signs earl, leaving many NRM candidates to sail through unopposed. These included Elioda Tumwesigye, Mary Mugyenyi and Nsaba Buturo.
But other NRM top officials like Prof. Tarsis Kabwegyere, Amama Mbabazi, Maj. Gen Kahinda Otafiire, Maj. Gen. Jim Muhwezi, John Nasasira, Mwesigwa Rukutana and Prof. Ephraim Kamuntu faced stiff competition from FDC candidates.
FDC fielded strong personalities in constituencies where they had support. Indeed at the start of the campaigns, NRM supporters acknowledged that the battle to uproot MPs loyal to FDC like Kazoora, Sabiiti and Ruzindana would not be easy. This was because the MPs were strong as individuals and their survival did not entirely depend on the political party affiliation.
In Rukiga, for instance, it was said that it would be easy to defeat FDC but not Sabiiti. Pre-election opinion polls had put Sabiiti at an advantage and he looked set to retain his seat as he faced Sam Byanagwa, who was previously unknown in political circles. Kazoora was also favoured against his rival Urban Tibamanya, while Ruzindana’s battle against Janet Museveni was seen as neck-to-neck.
Similarly, in Kinkizi West it was thought that despite huge support for President Museveni, Amama Mbabazi would find it hard to defeat James Musinguzi Garuga. This is because some NRM supporters favoured FDC candidates (or independents) because of their strong personalities. For example some NRM district councillors openly campaigned for independent candidate Miria Matembe against NRM’s Emma Boona. Thus the loss of Sabiiti, Matembe and Kazoora shocked even many NRM supporters.
The defeat of FDC heavyweights by NRM’s weaker personalities shows that Ankole and Kigezi voted for parties and not individuals.
This was not the case in other parties where the hangover of individual merit was evident, such as in UPC where Jimmy Akena got most votes in Lira Municipality but UPC represented by his mother got few votes in the same area. There is a feeling that some losers like Garuga would have made it under individual merit but in Ankole and Kigezi people voted for candidates loyal to President Museveni because they wanted him to stay on.
It is believed that people in the countryside were told to vote for NRM if they did not want war. Indeed many feared that violence would breakout if Besigye won.
This part of the country has not witnessed full-scale war unlike Luweero which bore much of the brunt in the 1980-85 rebellion or central and northern regions (1979 war and LRA insurgency). The only war people here know is the abortive 1972 invasion by Ugandan exiles from Tanzania and the sound of heavy weapons across the borders in Rwanda and Zaire (DRC) in 1990-1998. Thus any possibility of war scares people into voting in a particular way.
Apart from enjoying peace for many years, people in Ankole and Kigezi have made much progress in terms of material wealth (good houses, big businesses etc) and have a lot to lose in case war broke out. Yet Kigezi lies on the border with Rwanda and DRC, where many people think war is most likely to originate. Ankole is also on the border with Rwanda. Bakiga, Banyankole and Bafumbira, the most dominant tribes here, think that chances of war breaking out are higher when President Museveni is pushed out of power than when he stays.
The creation of new districts also contributed to NRM’s good performance in the elections. In the new districts such as Isingiro, Ibanda and Kiruhura, President Museveni and his NRM candidates received overwhelming support. FDC got lower percentages in the new districts compared to other districts in the region. Voters know that a new district comes with new jobs, new businesses, tenders and new services.
The credit went to Museveni but NRM parliamentary candidates also benefited from this. For instance in Isingiro district, FDC and DP candidates were beaten by NRM’s Maj. Bright Rwamirama, Nathan Byanyima and Alex Byarugaba.
In the post-election period, the runners up, particularly FDC and the anti-NRM independents are crying foul that NRM deployed state machinery in the constituencies towards polling day to rig them out.
Matembe said, “It was the whole state system against Kazoora and me. I am disappointed that NRM resorted to giving voters money in exchange for support. They came with massive amounts of money and poured it in the whole of Kashari and Rwampara.â€
Sabiiti said army personnel were deployed and a committee was set up by NRM to engineer his downfall. “I had never seen such rigging in all my life.
They used the RDC’ office, arrested my agents and confiscated appointment letters I had given them,†he said.
Ruzindana said, “Elections in Ruhama were thoroughly rigged. It was a military operation in Ruhama.â€
Chapaa said, “Otafiire told people that even if I were voted, I would not be sworn in because they (NRM) have the guns. My Escudo car was stoned and the rear windscreen was shattered.â€
The writer is a journalist
LAST week’s presidential and parliamentary elections saw President Yoweri Museveni and the NRM sweep all the constituencies in Ankole and Kigezi. This was a huge setback to the opposition, especially the FDC.
One of the reasons that put FDC leader Col. Kizza Besigye above other party leaders is that he hails from the same region as President Museveni. Thus many believe that he stands better chances of getting a substantial number of votes from the western region compared to other opposition leaders, while at the same time he would be assured of votes from other regions that are opposition strongholds.
However, as the results of last week’s polls show, the FDC performed far below expectations as the NRM scooped all the 33 seats of directly elected MPs in the 10 districts that comprise Ankole and Kigezi, while pro-NRM independents such as Tress Bucyanayandi (Bufumbira West) were also elected. On the other hand, FDC heavyweights and incumbent MPs Augustine Ruzindana (Ruhama), Jack Sabiiti (Rukiga) and John Kazoora (Kashari), and party officials Chapaa Karuhanga (Ruhinda) and Ingrid Turinawe (Rukungiri), among others, lost to NRM candidates.
Many factors could explain why the western region rejected FDC. First, some of the FDC candidates stood against strong NRM people. Ruzindana faced First Lady Janet Museveni while Chapaa faced lands minister Kahinda Otafiire. There were other ministers like Mwesigwa Rukutana and Jim Muhwezi. Voters here seem to believe that people who are already in government have more to offer in terms of lobbying for social services and jobs.
Apart from ministers, there is a big number of people from here who are in government employment. These people, many of them senior officers in the UPDF, Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) and other government agencies/departments are also powerful in their home areas and have helped their relatives and friends to get education, jobs and businesses. There are many people from here now living, studying or working in Kampala just because their kin are in government. These would probably suffer if President Museveni was voted out. Therefore no effort is spared in fighting to maintain the status quo.
Therefore, people in Ankole and Kigezi think that voting out Museveni would mean voting their own benefactors out of their positions. In effect it would mean biting the hand that feeds them, since there is no guarantee that an FDC government would keep their people in the positions they currently hold. It appears FDC read the signs earl, leaving many NRM candidates to sail through unopposed. These included Elioda Tumwesigye, Mary Mugyenyi and Nsaba Buturo.
But other NRM top officials like Prof. Tarsis Kabwegyere, Amama Mbabazi, Maj. Gen Kahinda Otafiire, Maj. Gen. Jim Muhwezi, John Nasasira, Mwesigwa Rukutana and Prof. Ephraim Kamuntu faced stiff competition from FDC candidates.
FDC fielded strong personalities in constituencies where they had support. Indeed at the start of the campaigns, NRM supporters acknowledged that the battle to uproot MPs loyal to FDC like Kazoora, Sabiiti and Ruzindana would not be easy. This was because the MPs were strong as individuals and their survival did not entirely depend on the political party affiliation.
In Rukiga, for instance, it was said that it would be easy to defeat FDC but not Sabiiti. Pre-election opinion polls had put Sabiiti at an advantage and he looked set to retain his seat as he faced Sam Byanagwa, who was previously unknown in political circles. Kazoora was also favoured against his rival Urban Tibamanya, while Ruzindana’s battle against Janet Museveni was seen as neck-to-neck.
Similarly, in Kinkizi West it was thought that despite huge support for President Museveni, Amama Mbabazi would find it hard to defeat James Musinguzi Garuga. This is because some NRM supporters favoured FDC candidates (or independents) because of their strong personalities. For example some NRM district councillors openly campaigned for independent candidate Miria Matembe against NRM’s Emma Boona. Thus the loss of Sabiiti, Matembe and Kazoora shocked even many NRM supporters.
The defeat of FDC heavyweights by NRM’s weaker personalities shows that Ankole and Kigezi voted for parties and not individuals.
This was not the case in other parties where the hangover of individual merit was evident, such as in UPC where Jimmy Akena got most votes in Lira Municipality but UPC represented by his mother got few votes in the same area. There is a feeling that some losers like Garuga would have made it under individual merit but in Ankole and Kigezi people voted for candidates loyal to President Museveni because they wanted him to stay on.
It is believed that people in the countryside were told to vote for NRM if they did not want war. Indeed many feared that violence would breakout if Besigye won.
This part of the country has not witnessed full-scale war unlike Luweero which bore much of the brunt in the 1980-85 rebellion or central and northern regions (1979 war and LRA insurgency). The only war people here know is the abortive 1972 invasion by Ugandan exiles from Tanzania and the sound of heavy weapons across the borders in Rwanda and Zaire (DRC) in 1990-1998. Thus any possibility of war scares people into voting in a particular way.
Apart from enjoying peace for many years, people in Ankole and Kigezi have made much progress in terms of material wealth (good houses, big businesses etc) and have a lot to lose in case war broke out. Yet Kigezi lies on the border with Rwanda and DRC, where many people think war is most likely to originate. Ankole is also on the border with Rwanda. Bakiga, Banyankole and Bafumbira, the most dominant tribes here, think that chances of war breaking out are higher when President Museveni is pushed out of power than when he stays.
The creation of new districts also contributed to NRM’s good performance in the elections. In the new districts such as Isingiro, Ibanda and Kiruhura, President Museveni and his NRM candidates received overwhelming support. FDC got lower percentages in the new districts compared to other districts in the region. Voters know that a new district comes with new jobs, new businesses, tenders and new services.
The credit went to Museveni but NRM parliamentary candidates also benefited from this. For instance in Isingiro district, FDC and DP candidates were beaten by NRM’s Maj. Bright Rwamirama, Nathan Byanyima and Alex Byarugaba.
In the post-election period, the runners up, particularly FDC and the anti-NRM independents are crying foul that NRM deployed state machinery in the constituencies towards polling day to rig them out.
Matembe said, “It was the whole state system against Kazoora and me. I am disappointed that NRM resorted to giving voters money in exchange for support. They came with massive amounts of money and poured it in the whole of Kashari and Rwampara.â€
Sabiiti said army personnel were deployed and a committee was set up by NRM to engineer his downfall. “I had never seen such rigging in all my life.
They used the RDC’ office, arrested my agents and confiscated appointment letters I had given them,†he said.
Ruzindana said, “Elections in Ruhama were thoroughly rigged. It was a military operation in Ruhama.â€
Chapaa said, “Otafiire told people that even if I were voted, I would not be sworn in because they (NRM) have the guns. My Escudo car was stoned and the rear windscreen was shattered.â€
The writer is a journalist