Why West Nile did not vote Museveni

Mar 05, 2006

As in the past elections, this year’s voting pattern in West Nile has not been in favour of President Yoweri Museveni. In the parliamentary elections, NRM supporters, both incumbent MPs and new entrants, were also rejected by the voters.

As in the past elections, this year’s voting pattern in West Nile has not been in favour of President Yoweri Museveni. In the parliamentary elections, NRM supporters, both incumbent MPs and new entrants, were also rejected by the voters. In all, three ministers and a number of incumbents inclined to NRM lost their parliamentary seats.
The First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Disaster Preparedness, Moses Ali, the Minister of Gender, Labour and Social Development, Zoe Bakoko Bakoru and the Minister of State for Public Service, Okumu Ringa all lost out to new faces. Other losers are Nusura Tiperu, Ahmed Awongo, Betty Udongo Pacutho, Anim Angupale, Said Okuti and Othman Alonga.
Since 1993 opinion leaders had made the tarmacking of the Karuma-Pakwach road a precondition for votes. Rebels had taken advantage of the bad state of the road at the time and turned the stretch into a nightmare for travellers. This worked against Museveni in the 1996 elections when the deadly LRA ambushes were at the peak. But as we went to the polls again on February 23, 2006, the road had been fixed and many expected the votes to flow naturally in favour of Museveni and NRM. Indeed the Arua-Nebbi and Nebbi-Pakwach roads are still shining with new tarmac. Over 80% of the work on the Karuma-Pakwach section has been done and ambushes by the LRA rebels are a thing of the past.
Government also spent billions of shillings to install a heavy thermo generator in Arua town that increased the electricity supply to Arua and Nebbi towns from four to 18 hours daily. This has replaced the uneconomical small generators that used to be the main source of power. In fact Nebbi and Arua currently have more reliable electricity than any other part of the country.
To consolidate the above, on February 3, President Museveni commissioned the construction of Nyagak hydro power dam in Nebbi district, which in 18 months is expected to start supplying power to the entire region through a gradual expansion programme. Realising the development gap between the north and other regions, government came up with the Northern Uganda Social Action Fund (NUSAF) that gives communities access to funds for implementing projects.
Therefore with the roads fixed, electricity flowing more regularly and longer than before, and NUSAF giving out the money to organised groups, one expected the votes to flow naturally in favour of Museveni. For example, the fixing of roads and provision of more reliable electricity were the major reasons given by former Ayivu MP and UPC stalwart Dick Nyai for joining the NRM last year. Interestingly, Forum for Democratic Change (FDC)President Col. Kizza Besigye still beat Museveni in West Nile. So why did West Nile reject Museveni?
There are several factors that explain the voting habits of West Nilers. First, there are six districts in the region, including the newly-created Koboko that was curved out of Arua. However, much of the new infrastructure like roads and power are limited to Arua and Nebbi districts. Thus Koboko, Yumbe, Moyo and Adjumani still feel neglected. Koboko and Yumbe have never seen electricity provided by government, while Moyo and Adjumani still get power for only four hours (7pm-11pm) from small generators. This explains why for the last 20 years there has been general outcry for Nyagak hydro station to start because Nyangak would supply power to the entire West Nile region.

People here find it difficult to understand why Nyagak project has for decades failed to take off, given the estimated small cost to construct it and lack of controversy (unlike Bujagali or Karuma). Many people think government just lacks the commitment to have the turbines running sooner than later. This feeling boosted the opposition.
Another nightmare to West Nilers is the Arua-Koboko-Oraba road. Because the road connects them to the border with Sudan and Congo, two of Africa’s largest countries and potentially big markets, the people here would be more than willing to reward whoever fixes it. People in West Nile are predominantly traders and cross border business is something they would do very well if they had the roads. The road from Koboko to Gulu via Yumbe, Moyo and Adjumani, if not upgraded, will also keep blocking votes from reaching President Museveni and the NRM in that area.
Analysts here think that the problem of nostalgia for power should not be down played. Although Langi and Acholi would not mind having their kin in power, they have other problems to think about, especially the phenomenon of IDP camps. West Nilers on the other hand don’t have this problem and are preoccupied with the days of Idd Amin. For example, the massive recruitment of fighters into the West Nile Bank Front (WNBF) of Col. Juma Oris was using the name of Amin. There was always hope that Amin and Oris would return to power and their tribesmen were always willing to fight to realise that dream. While Amin and Oris are dead, the ex-fighters are still a big problem. There are about 50,000 from WNBF I of Moses Ali, WNBF II of Ali Bamuze and former Uganda Army (Amin soldiers). These are scattered all over the region and are politically influencial, given that many of them have positions on local councils. Most of the ex-servicemen are still demanding for their terminal benefits, which there is no love lost between them and Museveni who is accused of refusing to retire them formally. Today, the ex-servicemen live in Arua, Moyo and Nebbi towns where opposition against NRM is highest.
The Catholic church is also a factor. The Catholic church boasts of about 60% of the population in West Nile. The church is a major provider of development projects and competes with government in provision of social services such as bore holes and education and health centres. This done mainly through church-based NGOs. For example in 1990s the Arua Catholic diocese and the government clashed over the construction of Nyagak hydro power station. The church stopped the church from building the dam on grounds that there was no law allowing private firms to build hydro power plants. Yet over 10 years later the government has not started on the project despite commissioning it more than once. The Catholic priests have never hidden their frustration on the project because their donors reportedly took the money to Togo for a similar plant. It is said that the priests have on several occasions criticised the government on this, and the faithfuls take the priests’ words seriously. Moreover, FDC’s Besigye promised to build the dam in his first six months in government.
Besigye knew quite well that West Nilers had many grievances against President Museveni. He visited the region twice, immediately after his return from South Africa and during the campaigns, and his message to the mammoth crowds was that the talk by then had shifted from whether Museveni should go or not to how fast FDC government would implement its programmes. He asked the voters to send him people he would work with to achieve this, hence the massive vote for FDC candidates in Arua and other districts in the region.
Internal divisions among NRM supporters also let them down. Many who lost the primaries contested as independents and divided the NRM vote. For example in Maracha, Pius Alitema, an ISO director, reportedly decampaigned the NRM candidate, Capt. Baker Dudu, just because he had defeated him in the primaries. Yet combined effort was what NRM needed to uproot FDC heavyweight Alex Onzima.
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