Why we should worry about Uganda’s high population growth
Sep 12, 2006
UGANDA’S population has doubled over the last 20 years, according to the 2006 State of Uganda’s Population Report.
By Carol Natukunda
UGANDA’S population has doubled over the last 20 years, according to the 2006 State of Uganda’s Population Report.
The report, presented by the Population Secretariat and the United Nations Population Fund on Thursday, says the population stood at 14 million in 1986, but rose to 28.2 million in mid-2006.
It says, with the current population growth rate of 3.2% per annum, Uganda is slated to double yet again in 2025 to a population of 55 million people.
Why the high population?
The country’s rapid population growth is attributed to the high total fertility rate of seven children per woman on average, for the last 40 years. Both the State of the World and State of Uganda Population reports highlighted the total fertility rate at 7.11 – the highest in Africa. The low contraceptive rate has also been attributed to the phenomenon, at only 23%.
Worries
Launching the report, Prof. Semakula Kiwanuka, the investment minister, said the 3.2% population growth rate per annum, poses a challenge to infrastructure.
Physical infrastructure like roads and bridges as well as social services like schools, and water are necessary to support production and improve the quality of life. However, the report says, a rapidly-growing population severely hampers the Governments ability to provide sufficient and quality services due to inadequate funding. This was evident with the Universal Primary Education where pupil-classroom ratio was 94:1, pupil-textbook ratio at 3:1 and pupil-teacher ratio at 58:1.
Kiwanuka also worries that a fast growing population makes it difficult to maintain natural resources like forests, water and land. The report also says, “This is evident in the reclamation of marginal lands, for instance, wetlands and destruction of forests.
Unsustainable utilisation of natural resources seriously disturbs the ecological balance and inhibits its capacity to support the population,†it adds.
The report also says there are signs that unemployment is high in urban areas while slums are increasing and expanding in urban areas as a result of the high population.
Over the past two decades, the youth continued forming the broad base of the population. In 1969, over 46.2% of the population belonged to the age group of less than 15 years. In 1991, this age group’s share of the total population increased to over 47.3% and further up to 49.3% in 2002. On the other hand, the share of the productive and reproductive age group, 15 – 64, decreased from 50% in 1969, to 47.7% in 2002, implying that the dependency ratio is on the increase.
“Given this high age-dependency ratio, personal spending on basic goods and services absorbs much of household income, leaving hardly any savings. As a result, the savings–Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio remains very low,†the report, says.
Despite the increase in Uganda’s ratio of saving to GDP from 4.7% in 2000 to 14.5% in 2005, this is still relatively low compared to the countries like Malaysia and Thailand, which have 24% and 32%, respectively.
Low savings mean low investments and modest productivity growth.
“Personal and business incomes grow slowly, pushing down the Government’s tax revenue. As a result, public spending for social overhead capital declines,†the report says.
Apart from varying levels of aggregate productivity, the high population also contributes to lower per capita income for Uganda, now estimated at US$ 285 (World Bank Report, April 2006).
Another worrisome economic trend was the uneven growth rate of labour productivity.
The report says in a rapidly-growing population, a large proportion of the labour force tend to have limited education and training, hence low earnings and high incidence of unemployment and underemployment, particularly among the youth.
The findings show that 55.3% of those who had no formal education were unpaid family workers, compared to only 5.9 of those who had beyond secondary school education.
Poverty also continues to bite hard with a high population. Between 1990 and 2000, the proportion of the poor population fell from 56% to 34%.
However, since 2000, poverty has risen, with the proportion of people below the poverty line rising from 34% to 38% in 2003. The number of the poor population also rose from about eight million in 2000 to 10.4 million in 2006.
“If constraints are not addressed, sustained and broad based, economic growth may be difficult to attain,†the report says.
What can be done?
“We have to stick to planning,†says Dr. Jotham Musinguzi, the director of the Population Secretariat, “Not that we do not have space, but the issues of has family become hard.â€
Dr. Frank Mabirizi of the National Planning Authority, also concurs that population is good if it is quality population.
“We must be able to appreciate these facts and figures, so that we are able to plan and prioritise in the planning process,†Mabirizi says.
Kiwanuka says, “We need to invest. Otherwise, the economy cannot grow. Economic growth creates wealth and wealth creates jobs.â€
He says the challenge is to have a master plan of development in place to promote the population’s health, education, skills and jobs.
The report says, there is need to pay special attention to the fertility dynamics, through family planning. “If we do not achieve this, the current population growth rate and dependency ratio will turn into a demographic “burdenâ€, instead of a demographic “bonusâ€.
UGANDA’S population has doubled over the last 20 years, according to the 2006 State of Uganda’s Population Report.
The report, presented by the Population Secretariat and the United Nations Population Fund on Thursday, says the population stood at 14 million in 1986, but rose to 28.2 million in mid-2006.
It says, with the current population growth rate of 3.2% per annum, Uganda is slated to double yet again in 2025 to a population of 55 million people.
Why the high population?
The country’s rapid population growth is attributed to the high total fertility rate of seven children per woman on average, for the last 40 years. Both the State of the World and State of Uganda Population reports highlighted the total fertility rate at 7.11 – the highest in Africa. The low contraceptive rate has also been attributed to the phenomenon, at only 23%.
Worries
Launching the report, Prof. Semakula Kiwanuka, the investment minister, said the 3.2% population growth rate per annum, poses a challenge to infrastructure.
Physical infrastructure like roads and bridges as well as social services like schools, and water are necessary to support production and improve the quality of life. However, the report says, a rapidly-growing population severely hampers the Governments ability to provide sufficient and quality services due to inadequate funding. This was evident with the Universal Primary Education where pupil-classroom ratio was 94:1, pupil-textbook ratio at 3:1 and pupil-teacher ratio at 58:1.
Kiwanuka also worries that a fast growing population makes it difficult to maintain natural resources like forests, water and land. The report also says, “This is evident in the reclamation of marginal lands, for instance, wetlands and destruction of forests.
Unsustainable utilisation of natural resources seriously disturbs the ecological balance and inhibits its capacity to support the population,†it adds.
The report also says there are signs that unemployment is high in urban areas while slums are increasing and expanding in urban areas as a result of the high population.
Over the past two decades, the youth continued forming the broad base of the population. In 1969, over 46.2% of the population belonged to the age group of less than 15 years. In 1991, this age group’s share of the total population increased to over 47.3% and further up to 49.3% in 2002. On the other hand, the share of the productive and reproductive age group, 15 – 64, decreased from 50% in 1969, to 47.7% in 2002, implying that the dependency ratio is on the increase.
“Given this high age-dependency ratio, personal spending on basic goods and services absorbs much of household income, leaving hardly any savings. As a result, the savings–Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio remains very low,†the report, says.
Despite the increase in Uganda’s ratio of saving to GDP from 4.7% in 2000 to 14.5% in 2005, this is still relatively low compared to the countries like Malaysia and Thailand, which have 24% and 32%, respectively.
Low savings mean low investments and modest productivity growth.
“Personal and business incomes grow slowly, pushing down the Government’s tax revenue. As a result, public spending for social overhead capital declines,†the report says.
Apart from varying levels of aggregate productivity, the high population also contributes to lower per capita income for Uganda, now estimated at US$ 285 (World Bank Report, April 2006).
Another worrisome economic trend was the uneven growth rate of labour productivity.
The report says in a rapidly-growing population, a large proportion of the labour force tend to have limited education and training, hence low earnings and high incidence of unemployment and underemployment, particularly among the youth.
The findings show that 55.3% of those who had no formal education were unpaid family workers, compared to only 5.9 of those who had beyond secondary school education.
Poverty also continues to bite hard with a high population. Between 1990 and 2000, the proportion of the poor population fell from 56% to 34%.
However, since 2000, poverty has risen, with the proportion of people below the poverty line rising from 34% to 38% in 2003. The number of the poor population also rose from about eight million in 2000 to 10.4 million in 2006.
“If constraints are not addressed, sustained and broad based, economic growth may be difficult to attain,†the report says.
What can be done?
“We have to stick to planning,†says Dr. Jotham Musinguzi, the director of the Population Secretariat, “Not that we do not have space, but the issues of has family become hard.â€
Dr. Frank Mabirizi of the National Planning Authority, also concurs that population is good if it is quality population.
“We must be able to appreciate these facts and figures, so that we are able to plan and prioritise in the planning process,†Mabirizi says.
Kiwanuka says, “We need to invest. Otherwise, the economy cannot grow. Economic growth creates wealth and wealth creates jobs.â€
He says the challenge is to have a master plan of development in place to promote the population’s health, education, skills and jobs.
The report says, there is need to pay special attention to the fertility dynamics, through family planning. “If we do not achieve this, the current population growth rate and dependency ratio will turn into a demographic “burdenâ€, instead of a demographic “bonusâ€.