Shortcomings of the Juba peace talks

Oct 10, 2006

HOPE of a comprehensive peace agreement between Uganda government and the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) seems to be fading.<b>Emmy Allio</b> reports that there is little progress in Juba, which leaves government officials, diplomats, civil society, aid workers and the northern Uganda population dis

HOPE of a comprehensive peace agreement between Uganda government and the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) seems to be fading.Emmy Allio reports that there is little progress in Juba, which leaves government officials, diplomats, civil society, aid workers and the northern Uganda population disappointed.

The UPDF says that it has resumed its operations in northern Uganda aimed at protecting the civilian population and creating an enabling environment for them to resettle in their villages.

The army argues that, following the end of the period of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CHA), the rebels have left northern Uganda for the resettlement centre in Owiny-Kibul in southern Sudan. On the other hand, LRA chief Joseph Kony ordered his people to evacuate the assembling areas on the grounds that there is massive UPDF deployment around Owiny-Kibul. This alleged UPDF deployment is yet to be independently confirmed by other interest groups including the northern politicians and civil leaders.

To save the situation, SPLA has deployed around the assembling points. This has not pleased LRA which again raised fears that the SPLA soldiers could be UPDF soldiers dressed in SPLA uniforms!

These developments put the mediator (the Government of Southern Sudan) into disrepute. It suffices to note that not long ago, LRA attempted to shift the talks from Juba to South Africa. They had also rejected both the Chief Mediator, Dr. Riek Machar, and head of Uganda government delegation, Dr. Ruhakana Rugunda. Lira businessman Sam Engola was ejected as an observer in Juba by the LRA delegation on the grounds that he is an NRM supporter. The Engola saga should not be down played. It signifies that the spirit of trust, respect for each other and commitment to the talks are dying out. It also means that new forces had arrived in Juba and hijacked the proceedings under the pretext of observers and advisers.

This week, the LRA released its draft proposal on “Comprehensive and Sustainable Peace Agreement on the Resolution of the Armed Conflict in Uganda.” The document brought to the fore the intricate role of destructive politics that has often bedevilled Uganda’s political space. The document suggested that during the ceasefire period, the UPDF will take control of areas in Central, Western and Southern Uganda while the LRA will control northern and northeastern Uganda.

The LRA document goes further to seek recognition of the People’s Redemption Army (PRA) and the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). It was clear that the LRA draft document was the work of politicians who have no agenda for Uganda to exist as a state. Without doubt, the authors had imagined that they were in Naivasha in Kenya where Sudan’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was negotiated and signed.

It means that the LRA wants to be treated as SPLA and wants a peace package which gives it the status of SPLA and GoSS. In nutshell, it means that the LRA and its advisers from the opposition want Uganda to split. Nobert Mao’s innuendo on the creation of the Nile State should not be taken lightly. And for those who have been saying that LRA had no supporters and no political agenda, think again.

In essence, the Juba ceremony has helped to whitewash the LRA, who notorious for killing, hacking and bludgeoning their way through the north’s terrified civilian population and abducting countless children to use as fighters and sex slaves. The war killed tens of thousands of people and left nearly two million displaced and dependent on food aid.

The role of politicians

In his book, “The War of the Flea: Guerrilla warfare, Theory and Practise,” Robert Taber says that a guerrilla war is an extension of politics. “Guerrilla war is a revolutionary war, engaging a civilian population, or a significant part of such a population, against the military forces of established or unsupportive government policy.”

But Taber’s definition of a guerrilla definitely excludes the LRA. He said, “a good and efficient guerrilla warfare fights with the support of the non-combatant civilian populace. Without the consent and active aid of the people, the insurgent would be merely a bandit and could not long survive.” This is typical of the LRA which comprises abducted children and kills people because it has no support.

The author says that guerrilla war or an insurgency war thrills most in multiparty democracies and constitutional democracies. This is because the government is exposed to subversion that is the basic weapon of revolutionary war. “Political and social dissent is exploited by the opposition to embarrass the government and thus give credit to the guerrilla (or insurgents),” he stated.

Taber said that guerrilla fighters or insurgents often fail if/where a government has come into power through some form of popular vote. This is because such government gives possibilities of peaceful struggle. The book warns the government against popularising the opposition by imposing curfews, suspending liberties or banning popular assemblies.

Developments in Congo

At the height of UPDF’s Iron Fist operation last year, the LRA fled to Garamba National Park in northeastern Congo. When Khartoum government granted UPDF the permission to hunt LRA anywhere in southern Sudan, and GoSS came into existence, that marked the beginning of the end of LRA. The rebels had nowhere to hide. They also lost the military and intelligence support from the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF).

UPDF’s victory was buttressed by the arrest warrants from the International Criminal Court (ICC). These events placed LRA in the dock and they were awaiting to be sentenced and hanged through a joint military operation, as contained in a United Nations Security Council resolution whose passing has been delayed pending the outcome of the Juba peace talks.

But the LRA leadership and their supporters and sponsors have not been sleeping. Instead LRA and its supporters appear to be using the Juba ceremony to buy time and as a strategy to forge new alliances and open up another war front. Reports from the Democratic Republic of Congo say that, in the recent weeks, LRA leaders in Garamba have agreed with representatives of the ADF and PRA to form a new umbrella body.

This alliance has high hopes of surviving in Congo, quarter of which is covered by forests that begin from Ituri and Garamba and descend towards Kisangani. The wildlife, vegetables and fruits within these forests will effectively ensure the survival of these rebels as they did for ADF and PRA.

There is absence of government control in eastern Congo. In a collapsed state like Congo, it is absolutely hard to uproot evil groups like the LRA, ADF and the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) or the Interahamwe. FDLR are said to number as many as 10,000 and control military and political events in South and North Kivu provinces. The estimated 17,000 MONUC and UEFOR forces in Congo backed by nearly 200,000 ragtag Congolese soldiers (FARDC) have failed to end FDLR’s reign of terror in Congo.

On its part, LRA is deploying in areas outside Garamba as it pays lip service to Juba peace talks. By moving its forces to Ituri, it has sent a clear signal that LRA is no longer in the dock. Instead, it is the Uganda government that is now in the dock. Why? The government has given its total commitment to the Juba talks and must seen doing so. But what Kampala authorities failed to know is that it is not only the LRA leaders who are threatened, but also certain opposition political parties and politicians whose existence pegs on the exploiting the miseries of the northern Uganda population. Now government’s patience is being tested as new alliances are formulated.

The LRA may exploit is the unfolding political climate in Congo. The October 29 re-run between President Joseph Kabila and Vice President Jean Pierre Bemba is expected to usher in democracy and hope for Congo. But in northeastern Congo, warlords in Ituri and north Kivu have different ideas. In these areas, MONUC and FARDC are engaged in fighting large rebel groups who control most of the countryside. This lack of governmental control benefits LRA, ADF and PRA. It makes it hard for a joint international force to fight them.

The only solution lies in giving support to the Kinshasa government which must accept to conduct joint operations with the UPDF. MONUC could lead in the coordination of such a joint force.

Sudan politics

Khartoum’s acceptance to negotiate and sign the CPA was partly a result of the pressure by the George Bush administration which had listed Sudan government as a sponsor of terrorism. In order to be removed from the list, Khartoum accepted to negotiate. The fall of Saddam Hussein also weakened Sudan. Saddam was head of Arab resistance towards American dominance. But most important was the fact that SPLA, with Uganda and USA support, had raised a strong military force and was threatening the oil wells.

Despite the signing of the CPA, allowing the south to secede has never been on the agenda of the Arab dominated northern government. Senior security sources in south Sudan say that the Arab dominated north still wants LRA, but not now. “LRA is needed to play a role towards the 2011 referendum and elections in Uganda. A stable Uganda is a threat to Sudan. It is in the interest of the north that the referendum flops and President Museveni is defeated,” the sources say.

Currently, there is a lot of difficulty in implementing CPA. It is possible that the Juba talks are being used by Khartoum to divert GoSS from pursuing the right path of ensuring the implementation of the CPA.
The current stubborn behaviour of Omar Bashir’s government must be carefully noted by Museveni and Salva Kiir. It is a general stubbornness against USA and Britain. It began in Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan. Sudan, which hosted Osama bin Laden from 19993 to 1996, is the heart of Arab nationalism. This can be exemplified by Khartoum’s attitude in Darfur. For Bashir, the fear of USA is no more. The government has just refused to allow deployment of UN forces to save the black population that is now at the mercy of SAF forces and nomad Arab militias. This stubbornness against UN and USA follows developments in Afghanistan, Iran and Iraq.The lack of respect for USA and Britain coincides with Khartoum’s refusal to cooperate with GoSS over oil affairs. Slowly but surely, Sudan is moving towards another conflict over oil locations and revenues.

The CPA is will be harder to implement than it was to negotiate. Protocols of the CPA earmarked 48% of petrol revenues as a share for GoSS in addition to establishing self rule in the three regions of Abyei, southern Blue Nile and the Nuba Mountains. These issues centre on the oil well and may remain the most contentious issues.

The demarcation of Abyei, a contested area on the north-south border that contains one of Sudan’s two main oil fields, was rejected by Bashir’s government, although the boundary commission’s decision was supposed to be final and binding under the CPA. Abyei has been given autonomous status and will choose in a referendum in 2011 whether to remain part of the north or join a potentially independent southern Sudan.

LRA commits suicide

Vincent Otti has admitted responsibility for the killing of eight Guatemalan UN peacekeepers in Garamba on January 23, 2006. This is an international crime equal to the wanton killings in northern Uganda, and the perpetrators must be indicted. The Security Council and the ICC now have reason to open up a second case against LRA.

In an interview with Daily Monitor, Otti accused the Bush administration of being behind President Museveni’s alleged move to return to war. He calls it Plan B. He said that if the US colluded with Kampala to hunt them down in the event that the Juba peace talks failed, the Americans would go down like the Guatamalan peacekeepers. Boasting of killing UN peacekeepers puts the LRA leaders on the guillotine and the Mato Oput traditional justice system in doubt. What traditional justice system does a bunch of criminals who boast of killing UN personnel deserve?

Despite all this, the only hope is still in Juba. International pressure needs to be put on both sides to ensure that peace is achieved through negotiations. But unwanted cooks should also be kicked out of that Juba kitchen.

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