FDC, the writing is on the wall!
THE formation of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) last year caused great excitement in political circles.
By John Kakande
THE formation of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) last year caused great excitement in political circles.
It was a development that caused some panic to the political establishment largely because it was thought it would galvanise the factionalised opposition and make it more organised, focused and dynamic ahead of the 2006 presidential and parliamentary elections.
I stated in July last year that the FDC, which was formed following a merger of Reform Agenda and a section of the Parliamentary Advocacy Forum (Pafo) could significantly alter the balance of forces in the country.
But I argued that the new party’s emergence as a force to reckon with would depend on a number of factors including the internal politics in the Movement and developments within the two old parties — DP and UPC.
Was the formation of the FDC a tactical mistake? Has the FDC galvanised or weakened the opposition at a crucial time?
After a careful analysis, I am persuaded to conclude that the FDC has so far not galvanised the opposition, but has instead weakened it and strengthened the Movement. The FDC may actually have been a blessing in disguise for the Movement.
First, the Movement (NRM) has emerged as a more cohesive group because all Movement dissidents have joined the FDC.
The trend within the NRM would have been fundamentally different if dissidents like Eriya Kategaya and Augustine Ruzindana had opted to remain active within the Movement. Only Bidandi Ssali remains the only anti-kisanja voice inside the NRM. But because he is alone, he can no longer influence the trend of things in the organisation.
At a time when debate on the Constitutional amendments is about to start, the NRM is the only one with an organised and effective caucus in Parliament because the formation of the FDC disrupted the once vibrant Pafo. The premature death of Pafo has deprived the opposition of an organised voice within Parliament at a crucial time. This explains why both the Odonga Otto and Ken Lukyamuzi motions relating to the controversial sh5m kisanja money didn’t take off!
The FDC emerged on the scene at a time when the opposition was in the process of evolving an alliance through the Group of Seven (G7) parties.
The FDC formation disrupted this development. The FDC, after failing to convince the other parties — DP, UPC, Justice Forum, CP and The Free Movement to join the merger, opted to operate in isolation.
For instance, acting against the understanding reached on earlier by the G7, FDC unilaterally applied for registration before the Constitutional Court disposed of the petition that was challenging the Political Parties and Organisations Act. This scuttled the G7 alliance and caused panic among supporters of other parties that the FDC was scheming to snatch their supporters through an early registration.
A faction of DP led by Nasser Sebaggala also started agitating for the registration of the party complicating life for the party leadership. Furthermore the defection of some DP and UPC MPs to the FDC alienated the two parties from the FDC and thus undermined the opposition unity.
The FDC, considering the personalities behind it, has a potential to emerge as the dominant opposition party. But the FDC promoters will have to be more astute, avoid infighting and seek to work with the rest of the opposition.
Although the FDC promoters insist that they have no leadership crisis, any keen observer cannot fail to notice that all is not well inside the party.
The recent statement by David Pulkol that he could run for presidency as an independent candidate if there were dubious maneuvers in the selection of FDC flag bearers was quite revealing.
Certainly Pulkol couldn’t have made such a statement without a good reason. He must have sensed that there could be some people in the FDC who were engaged in some dubious maneuvers.
It is dubious maneuvers by individuals that have torn apart the country’s oldest party — DP, which has split into a rival faction.
The biggest challenge facing the FDC is to establish a well- focused and strong leadership through a transparent and democratic process.
jkakande@newvision.co.ug
THE formation of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) last year caused great excitement in political circles.
It was a development that caused some panic to the political establishment largely because it was thought it would galvanise the factionalised opposition and make it more organised, focused and dynamic ahead of the 2006 presidential and parliamentary elections.
I stated in July last year that the FDC, which was formed following a merger of Reform Agenda and a section of the Parliamentary Advocacy Forum (Pafo) could significantly alter the balance of forces in the country.
But I argued that the new party’s emergence as a force to reckon with would depend on a number of factors including the internal politics in the Movement and developments within the two old parties — DP and UPC.
Was the formation of the FDC a tactical mistake? Has the FDC galvanised or weakened the opposition at a crucial time?
After a careful analysis, I am persuaded to conclude that the FDC has so far not galvanised the opposition, but has instead weakened it and strengthened the Movement. The FDC may actually have been a blessing in disguise for the Movement.
First, the Movement (NRM) has emerged as a more cohesive group because all Movement dissidents have joined the FDC.
The trend within the NRM would have been fundamentally different if dissidents like Eriya Kategaya and Augustine Ruzindana had opted to remain active within the Movement. Only Bidandi Ssali remains the only anti-kisanja voice inside the NRM. But because he is alone, he can no longer influence the trend of things in the organisation.
At a time when debate on the Constitutional amendments is about to start, the NRM is the only one with an organised and effective caucus in Parliament because the formation of the FDC disrupted the once vibrant Pafo. The premature death of Pafo has deprived the opposition of an organised voice within Parliament at a crucial time. This explains why both the Odonga Otto and Ken Lukyamuzi motions relating to the controversial sh5m kisanja money didn’t take off!
The FDC emerged on the scene at a time when the opposition was in the process of evolving an alliance through the Group of Seven (G7) parties.
The FDC formation disrupted this development. The FDC, after failing to convince the other parties — DP, UPC, Justice Forum, CP and The Free Movement to join the merger, opted to operate in isolation.
For instance, acting against the understanding reached on earlier by the G7, FDC unilaterally applied for registration before the Constitutional Court disposed of the petition that was challenging the Political Parties and Organisations Act. This scuttled the G7 alliance and caused panic among supporters of other parties that the FDC was scheming to snatch their supporters through an early registration.
A faction of DP led by Nasser Sebaggala also started agitating for the registration of the party complicating life for the party leadership. Furthermore the defection of some DP and UPC MPs to the FDC alienated the two parties from the FDC and thus undermined the opposition unity.
The FDC, considering the personalities behind it, has a potential to emerge as the dominant opposition party. But the FDC promoters will have to be more astute, avoid infighting and seek to work with the rest of the opposition.
Although the FDC promoters insist that they have no leadership crisis, any keen observer cannot fail to notice that all is not well inside the party.
The recent statement by David Pulkol that he could run for presidency as an independent candidate if there were dubious maneuvers in the selection of FDC flag bearers was quite revealing.
Certainly Pulkol couldn’t have made such a statement without a good reason. He must have sensed that there could be some people in the FDC who were engaged in some dubious maneuvers.
It is dubious maneuvers by individuals that have torn apart the country’s oldest party — DP, which has split into a rival faction.
The biggest challenge facing the FDC is to establish a well- focused and strong leadership through a transparent and democratic process.
jkakande@newvision.co.ug