Malaria: A Changed Climate In Africa?
Mar 15, 2004
AFTER decades of decline, malaria has been on the rise in many parts of Africa. An estimation by the World Health Organisation (WHO) is that, in some parts of the continent, malaria mortality in young children almost doubled from the 1980s to the 1990s.
AFTER decades of decline, malaria has been on the rise in many parts of Africa. An estimation by the World Health Organisation (WHO) is that, in some parts of the continent, malaria mortality in young children almost doubled from the 1980s to the 1990s.
The disease causes some 3,000 deaths each day and imposes huge losses in economic productivity.
Is this resurgence a sign of increased transmission caused by climate change? Probably not, according to results presented by Small, Goetz and Hay.
Writing in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, they describe their analyses of trends in climate suitable for the regular transmission of malaria in Africa between 1911 and 1995.
Their conclusion does not imply that future climate changes will not affect transmission, but it does focus attention on other contemporary trends.
Several studies have projected that global climate will increase future malaria transmission in Africa.
However, the link between contemporary changes in malaria and climate is hotly disputed.
Alternative explanations such as an increase in parasite resistance to the front-line drugs since the 1960s, poverty and a decline in many African health services are cited as more likely causes.
Undoubtedly, a mix of such reasons is behind the rise in malaria. But identifying the prime factors will help greatly in planning control measures.
Ends
The disease causes some 3,000 deaths each day and imposes huge losses in economic productivity.
Is this resurgence a sign of increased transmission caused by climate change? Probably not, according to results presented by Small, Goetz and Hay.
Writing in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, they describe their analyses of trends in climate suitable for the regular transmission of malaria in Africa between 1911 and 1995.
Their conclusion does not imply that future climate changes will not affect transmission, but it does focus attention on other contemporary trends.
Several studies have projected that global climate will increase future malaria transmission in Africa.
However, the link between contemporary changes in malaria and climate is hotly disputed.
Alternative explanations such as an increase in parasite resistance to the front-line drugs since the 1960s, poverty and a decline in many African health services are cited as more likely causes.
Undoubtedly, a mix of such reasons is behind the rise in malaria. But identifying the prime factors will help greatly in planning control measures.
Ends