Can Pafo form a strong party?
THE Parliamentary Advocacy Forum (Pafo), has emerged as an important political player in Uganda. You cannot fail to notice that lately, Movement cadres are focusing on attacking Pafo.
THE Parliamentary Advocacy Forum (Pafo), has emerged as an important political player in Uganda. You cannot fail to notice that lately, Movement cadres are focusing on attacking Pafo. Some local Movement leaders have warned Pafo not to step in their districts. This is saddening. It looks like a replay of the UPC politics in the early 1980s. It means the Movement leadership isn’t taking Pafo lightly.
It is mainly the kisanja (third term) campaign that has propelled Pafo to the political forefront. Excited by its apparent success, some Pafo members are reportedly scheming to turn the caucus into a party. Also people who are opposed to the Movement, but also hold the old political parties in contempt, would no doubt welcome Pafo as an alternative political force.
Is Pafo well positioned to emerge as the main challenger to the NRM?
Pafo faces difficulties to emerge as a strong party. The problems, which have incapacitated Reform Agenda (RA), would also handicap Pafo.
Col. Dr. Kizza Besigye’s presidential bid in 2001 attracted more support from DP and UPC than from the Movement. When RA was launched, the DP and UPC supporters who voted for Besigye, shunned it. Likewise, a significant number of MPs in Pafo belong to other political groups. For example, Augustine Ruzindana, Capt. David Guma, Major John Kazoora and Capt. Charles Byaruhanga belong to the Movement. Patrick Musisi, Kassiano Wadri and Issa Kikungwe are from DP. Abdu Katuntu and Ben Wacha are from UPC while there are some Pafo members who belong to RA.
MPs in Pafo would have to take difficult decisions. MPs from western Uganda, where the Movement has a strong following, are unlikely to join any other political party other than the NRM. It would be political suicide for these MPs to join another party to fight the NRM. Similarly the MPs belonging to UPC and DP would be risking joining another party. I do not imagine Patrick Musisi from Busiro south quitting DP. In areas where UPC commands big support, it would be unlikely for the MPs to switch allegiance to another party. Even Cecilia Ogwal, considered a powerful politician in her own right, has avoided a complete break with Milton Obote and UPC.
There is a handful of MPs who would be comfortable operating under a new party. Katuntu from Busoga would probably be uncomfortable to run on a UPC ticket in Bugweri. Katuntu defeated Kirunda Kivejinja in last parliamentary elections due to the infighting among Busoga Movementists. There are also some dissident Movement MPs who may find it hard to run on the NRM ticket and yet are uncomfortable joining the old parties. They would be better off either finding a new home or running as independents.
But as long as UPC, DP and NRM do not experience mass defections, chances of another strong party emerging in the near future are slim.
Ends
It is mainly the kisanja (third term) campaign that has propelled Pafo to the political forefront. Excited by its apparent success, some Pafo members are reportedly scheming to turn the caucus into a party. Also people who are opposed to the Movement, but also hold the old political parties in contempt, would no doubt welcome Pafo as an alternative political force.
Is Pafo well positioned to emerge as the main challenger to the NRM?
Pafo faces difficulties to emerge as a strong party. The problems, which have incapacitated Reform Agenda (RA), would also handicap Pafo.
Col. Dr. Kizza Besigye’s presidential bid in 2001 attracted more support from DP and UPC than from the Movement. When RA was launched, the DP and UPC supporters who voted for Besigye, shunned it. Likewise, a significant number of MPs in Pafo belong to other political groups. For example, Augustine Ruzindana, Capt. David Guma, Major John Kazoora and Capt. Charles Byaruhanga belong to the Movement. Patrick Musisi, Kassiano Wadri and Issa Kikungwe are from DP. Abdu Katuntu and Ben Wacha are from UPC while there are some Pafo members who belong to RA.
MPs in Pafo would have to take difficult decisions. MPs from western Uganda, where the Movement has a strong following, are unlikely to join any other political party other than the NRM. It would be political suicide for these MPs to join another party to fight the NRM. Similarly the MPs belonging to UPC and DP would be risking joining another party. I do not imagine Patrick Musisi from Busiro south quitting DP. In areas where UPC commands big support, it would be unlikely for the MPs to switch allegiance to another party. Even Cecilia Ogwal, considered a powerful politician in her own right, has avoided a complete break with Milton Obote and UPC.
There is a handful of MPs who would be comfortable operating under a new party. Katuntu from Busoga would probably be uncomfortable to run on a UPC ticket in Bugweri. Katuntu defeated Kirunda Kivejinja in last parliamentary elections due to the infighting among Busoga Movementists. There are also some dissident Movement MPs who may find it hard to run on the NRM ticket and yet are uncomfortable joining the old parties. They would be better off either finding a new home or running as independents.
But as long as UPC, DP and NRM do not experience mass defections, chances of another strong party emerging in the near future are slim.
Ends