Joe Nam

Oct 13, 2004

The split between the NRM Historicals was bound to happen. The dynamics of group relations dictates that disintegration is bound to be triggered after the original fears that bind the group together is overcome and common goals achieved.

The split between the NRM Historicals was bound to happen. The dynamics of group relations dictates that disintegration is bound to be triggered after the original fears that bind the group together is overcome and common goals achieved.
All groupings are subject to this law. that is the reason no one should listen to calls of unity from politicians. Unity connotes weakness and not strength. Unity is only necessary when there is a common threat that cannot be faced and defeated individually.
The NRM, having overcome the initial threat of annihilation by the Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC) and won state power, is now subject to disintegration. The Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) is the latest manifestation of this process which began with the NRM’s fall-out with Rwanda’s RPF. Disintegration does not automatically lead to demise. A disintegrating organisation can re-invent itself and emerge even stronger.
But the FDC, in the pursuit of its objectives to capture state power, now faces a task that cannot be envied. First, it is united by the fear of President Museveni’s influence in western Uganda and Uganda in general. The FDC leadership fear that Museveni could hand over the mantle of leadership to another generation who owe loyalty to him the way North Korea’s Kim il Sung passed on the leadership to Kim Jong il.
The FDC is also concerned with an anti-western Uganda backlash, in the event that the NRM goes out of power. It should be remembered that western Uganda is very prosperous. Unfortunately this is attributed more to Museveni’s ‘favouritism’ than the natural and geo-political advantages.
The FDC ranks, most of whom are from western Uganda are concerned more about preserving the region from future retribution than for democracy. What the FDC mean when they say the movement has lost its original aims is that Museveni’s continued stay in power is a precursor for future retribution to western Uganda.
It will be hard for the FDC to persuade NRM traditional voters that Museveni is ripe for dumping. Any suggestion not to vote for him if he decides to stand will not only sound sacrilegious but will need a lot of explanation. Dissenters might in the end be politely asked to reconcile with their ‘boss’.
African culture denounces all forms of disrespect to a leader of the people. That is the reason the late Idi Amin is still a hero in West Nile and Obote is still revered in Lango and other erstwhile UPC strongholds.
Ends

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