Northern Uganda has fastest population growth
Oct 08, 2002
<br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br>The recently concluded population and housing census reveals lots of surprises. In the last census, northern Uganda had 19% of the population. This time round, it had 22%
KEY:
More Men
More Women
The recently concluded population and housing census reveals lots of surprises. Charles Wendo and Joshua Kato analysed the provisional results
Nobody really expected that census enumerators would find exactly 23.6 million Ugandans as experts had projected, but many have been surprised by the variation of one million. Statistics officials last week announced that we are 24.6 million Ugandans and not 23.6 million as they had projected.
James Mubiru, the deputy executive Director of the Uganda National Bureau of Statistics(UNBS), says the figure is a total surprise. “We are not sure why, but we have some possibilities we are thinking about. We are still investigating,†he says.
The census technical officer, Andrew Mukulu, says the projections were made 11 years ago. Statistics 11 years ago also showed that one out of every five babies born in Uganda did not live to the age of five. But now, childhood mortality is much less.
But more significant is the high fertility rate, he says. The average number of children born per Ugandan woman is 6.9. This is a slight reduction from 7.1 thirty years ago. International reports show that of all countries in eastern and central Africa, Uganda has the highest number of children per woman.
“We have very many young women and if they produce an average of 6.9 children, we get many children every year,†he says.
The census figures reveal that Uganda’s population is increasing faster than ever before. Between 1999 and 2002, despite the high numbers of people who died of AIDS and other diseases, Uganda’s population has been growing by an average of 695,000 per year. This nearly doubles the annual growth rate of 367,000 during the preceding 10 years. Thus Uganda’s population growth rate, which was already one of the highest in the world when it was 2.5%, has now increased to 3.3%.
“People still believe in having many children. Since the 1970s, attitudes have not changed,†says Mubiru.
Dr. Jotham Musinguzi, director of the Population Secretariat, is also worried about the high population growth rates. “Population growth in Uganda is higher than before. This is very challenging,†he says.
Another surprise of the 2002 census is that the population in northern Uganda appears to be growing faster than other regions, despite all the killings and abductions in 16 years of rebel insurgency. Moreover, enumerators did not reach a few places due to insecurity.
In the last census 19% of the population was in northern Uganda. This time round, the north accounted for 22% of the total population.
Mukulu says they are still investigating this growth in the northern population. However, he says, one of the causes is that women in northern Uganda produce more than their colleagues in other regions.
Norbert Mao, Member of Parliament for Gulu Municipality, disagrees. He says the increase is mythical.
“Since the last census was an under-estimate, it gives the impression that there has been astronomical growth in the north over the last 10 years. The growth rate was measured from an inaccurate data base,†he says.
But Mubiru maintains that the increase is real. In fact, he says during the last census, it was the Teso region and not that northern region that was inadequately covered. By then rebels of the Uganda People’s Army were fighting in Soroti and Kumi districts.
The population increase in northern Uganda should not have caught planners by surprise.
Last year’s demographic survey revealed that women in northern Uganda were most fertile, delivering an average of 7.9 children per woman. This was higher than the national average of 6.9.
According to the census results, Kotido District has the highest population growth rate. The population in Kotido has been growing by 9.7% per year over the last 10 years. Moyo and Yumbe are at par, each of them growing by 8.0% per year.
Other districts with very high population growth rates are Kalangala (6.4%), Moroto (6.0%), Nakapiripirit (5.9%), Kibaale (5.4%), Katakwi (5.3%), Soroti (5.1%), Bundibugyo (5.1%), Masindi (5.0%).
Though all districts have contributed to Uganda’s rapid population growth, these districts have outdone all the others.
If high population growth rates caused development, they would be the greatest.
Al-hajji Abdul Nadduli, the Luweero District chairman, is happy that the population is growing fast, but angry that Buganda is lagging behind.
“Other tribes will overtake Buganda if the population growth stays like this. My heart is crying for Buganda,†Nadduli says.
However, Ben Mwesigye, a lecturer of social sciences at Makerere University, says such a high population growth rate breeds poverty.
Paul Zake, also a lecturer at Makerere University says that a rapid, uncontrolled population growth hinders government’s development plans.
“This is very dangerous. No country with a population growth of 3.3% can develop fast,†he says.
It is a nightmare for Keith Muhakanizi, director of economic affairs in the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development. He fears that the phenomenal growth will put more pressure on the national economy.
“This is bad news for national planning,†Muhakanizi says.
The rapid population increase, he says, is one of the reasons why most people remain poor though the economy is growing by a high 7% per year.
More Men
More Women
The recently concluded population and housing census reveals lots of surprises. Charles Wendo and Joshua Kato analysed the provisional results
Nobody really expected that census enumerators would find exactly 23.6 million Ugandans as experts had projected, but many have been surprised by the variation of one million. Statistics officials last week announced that we are 24.6 million Ugandans and not 23.6 million as they had projected.
James Mubiru, the deputy executive Director of the Uganda National Bureau of Statistics(UNBS), says the figure is a total surprise. “We are not sure why, but we have some possibilities we are thinking about. We are still investigating,†he says.
The census technical officer, Andrew Mukulu, says the projections were made 11 years ago. Statistics 11 years ago also showed that one out of every five babies born in Uganda did not live to the age of five. But now, childhood mortality is much less.
But more significant is the high fertility rate, he says. The average number of children born per Ugandan woman is 6.9. This is a slight reduction from 7.1 thirty years ago. International reports show that of all countries in eastern and central Africa, Uganda has the highest number of children per woman.
“We have very many young women and if they produce an average of 6.9 children, we get many children every year,†he says.
The census figures reveal that Uganda’s population is increasing faster than ever before. Between 1999 and 2002, despite the high numbers of people who died of AIDS and other diseases, Uganda’s population has been growing by an average of 695,000 per year. This nearly doubles the annual growth rate of 367,000 during the preceding 10 years. Thus Uganda’s population growth rate, which was already one of the highest in the world when it was 2.5%, has now increased to 3.3%.
“People still believe in having many children. Since the 1970s, attitudes have not changed,†says Mubiru.
Dr. Jotham Musinguzi, director of the Population Secretariat, is also worried about the high population growth rates. “Population growth in Uganda is higher than before. This is very challenging,†he says.
Another surprise of the 2002 census is that the population in northern Uganda appears to be growing faster than other regions, despite all the killings and abductions in 16 years of rebel insurgency. Moreover, enumerators did not reach a few places due to insecurity.
In the last census 19% of the population was in northern Uganda. This time round, the north accounted for 22% of the total population.
Mukulu says they are still investigating this growth in the northern population. However, he says, one of the causes is that women in northern Uganda produce more than their colleagues in other regions.
Norbert Mao, Member of Parliament for Gulu Municipality, disagrees. He says the increase is mythical.
“Since the last census was an under-estimate, it gives the impression that there has been astronomical growth in the north over the last 10 years. The growth rate was measured from an inaccurate data base,†he says.
But Mubiru maintains that the increase is real. In fact, he says during the last census, it was the Teso region and not that northern region that was inadequately covered. By then rebels of the Uganda People’s Army were fighting in Soroti and Kumi districts.
The population increase in northern Uganda should not have caught planners by surprise.
Last year’s demographic survey revealed that women in northern Uganda were most fertile, delivering an average of 7.9 children per woman. This was higher than the national average of 6.9.
According to the census results, Kotido District has the highest population growth rate. The population in Kotido has been growing by 9.7% per year over the last 10 years. Moyo and Yumbe are at par, each of them growing by 8.0% per year.
Other districts with very high population growth rates are Kalangala (6.4%), Moroto (6.0%), Nakapiripirit (5.9%), Kibaale (5.4%), Katakwi (5.3%), Soroti (5.1%), Bundibugyo (5.1%), Masindi (5.0%).
Though all districts have contributed to Uganda’s rapid population growth, these districts have outdone all the others.
If high population growth rates caused development, they would be the greatest.
Al-hajji Abdul Nadduli, the Luweero District chairman, is happy that the population is growing fast, but angry that Buganda is lagging behind.
“Other tribes will overtake Buganda if the population growth stays like this. My heart is crying for Buganda,†Nadduli says.
However, Ben Mwesigye, a lecturer of social sciences at Makerere University, says such a high population growth rate breeds poverty.
Paul Zake, also a lecturer at Makerere University says that a rapid, uncontrolled population growth hinders government’s development plans.
“This is very dangerous. No country with a population growth of 3.3% can develop fast,†he says.
It is a nightmare for Keith Muhakanizi, director of economic affairs in the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development. He fears that the phenomenal growth will put more pressure on the national economy.
“This is bad news for national planning,†Muhakanizi says.
The rapid population increase, he says, is one of the reasons why most people remain poor though the economy is growing by a high 7% per year.