Uganda can learn a lesson from Kenya
On December 27, 2002, Kenyans will vote for a new President and Members of Parliam-ent in elections that are seen by many as the threshold for a break from the past.
By Asuman Bisiika
On December 27, 2002, Kenyans will vote for a new President and Members of Parliam-ent in elections that are seen by many as the threshold for a break from the past.
The elections will be held against a background of a negative economic growth rate, a political dispensation that is more tribalistic than national development and unprecedented unemployment rates.
Statistics corroborate the grim picture of Kenya in the last 20 years.
In the 1960s and ‘70s, Kenya’s annual economic growth peaked at 8%. However, by 2001, the economic growth rate had dropped sharply to -3%.
Basic infrastructure such as roads, telephones, railways and electricity have been in a state of disrepair. Because of unprecedented unemployment rates, there is rising crime in Nairobi and other major towns. Kenyan politics is defined by prominent vertical tendencies based on ethnic constituencies.
And yet one cannot say that given the political and economic situation in Kenya now, Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta or Mwai Kibaki who are the front runners in the presidential elections, will draw the excitement and hope that engulfed Uganda in 1986.
In Kenyatta and Kibaki, one still sees a thread of continuity of the old political thought because the two have no political experience outside the all-pervading KANU political psyche. So, basically this is not Uganda in 1986.
Even in those dire straits, Kenya still differs from Uganda rather conspicuously though. Every Ugandan who visits Nairobi for the first time will always tell you that “Nairobi is not your Kampala.â€
In spite of a negative economic growth from the 1980s to date, Kenya’s economy is still the biggest in East Africa. This is so, regardless of Uganda’s and Tanzania’s positive postings on the economic growth scale.
The moral, political and economic fabric of the Kenyan society has been ruined to alarming proportions.
However, prospects given by the size of the Kenyan economy draws some hope of a quick recovery if it [economy) is managed diligently.
The revitalisation of the economy and the fight against corruption is expected to take first priority in the next government.
On the political level, there will not be great expectations. Both Kibaki and Uhuru lack the revolutionary credentials to initiate radical ideas to straighten the politics.
The constitution will be reviewed though. However, the result of this constitutional review will not derive from the new leadership’s pursuit of democratisation but the need to accommodate heavyweight politicians and their ethnic constituencies as is commonplace in Kenyan politics.
What is there for Uganda?
The main contenders in the Presidential Elections are Uhuru of the ruling KANU and Mwai Kibaki of NARK, a loose coalition of opposition political parties.
President Arap Moi is of course constitutionally barred from standing; this being his second and last term in the top job.
Either way the elections go, (Uhuru or Kibaki), Kenya will still be Uganda’s neighbour in the east. It is therefore pertinent that Ugandans are watching the Kenyan elections with keen interest.
The anxiety is not helped by the fact that Ugandans will, three years from now, also go for Presidential elections in which long serving President Yoweri Museveni will not be a candidate; much the same scenario in Kenya.
So, is there anything for Uganda to look forward to in the post-Moi Kenya?
The general assumption is that Moi would most likely respect the outcome of the elections even when his candidate, Uhuru loses.
So, Uganda’s neighbour in the east will soon have either Uhuru or Kibaki as her president.
The political circumstances in Kenya point in the direction of continuity whether Uhuru Kenyatta or Mwai Kibaki is elected president.
After all the two have no political experience outside the all-pervading KANU political psyche. There will most likely be talk of the strengthening of the East African Community and eventual regional merger from the new leadership in Kenya. But that will not be new.
Unlike Ugandans, Kenyans define their political lives from an economic perspective.
So, whereas we do not expect any vibrancy in the pursuit for democratic reforms from our neighbours in the east, the post-Moi regime will most certainly be preoccupied by the revitalisation of the economy.
With an expected resumption of multilateral donor assistance and a leadership that would benefit from the lessons of past mistakes, there is hope that the Kenyan economy will go on a steady trend of recovery.
Kenya’s influence on the Ugandan society has been economic. Before 1986, Uganda was almost a net importer of consumer commodities from Kenya.
The Ugandan market for Kenyan consumer goods was so big that it was wise for some industries to relocate from Nairobi to Kisumu. In fact the industrial development in the city of Kisumu thrived on the Ugandan market.
All that changed from 1986 though.
However, given that even with a stagnant economy
Kenya’s presence in Uganda was still conspicuous, one would think that with a revived economy Uganda will host an increased investment portfolio from Kenya.
With a new US global foreign policy premised on the fight against terrorism, Kenya is most likely going to regain its strategic position.
With a very long coastline and a history of terrorist attacks, Kenya is expected to fit in the US over-all strategy to fight terrorism.
Uganda hitherto enjoyed a warm US relationship because of its willingness to fight what was seen as a downward thrust of Islamic fundamentalism stemming from the Sudan.
Now with the rebellion in southern Sudan on the verge of being solved peacefully, Kenya is most likely going to enjoy a good relationship with the US at the expense of Uganda.
President Moi survived a coup attempt led by junior Air Force officers in 1982, his regime was characterised b7y tribal unrest and economic mismanagement.
Whatever happens after his departure from office, the next government will be weaker than his because of the country’s poor economic performance.
This means that the next government will not seek to influence the trend of politics in the neighbourhood. Much as all the focus will be on the politicians, the role of the civil society in the post-Moi political dispensation should not be underestimated; given their activism in the run-up to the political changes that has made possible today’s political realities in Kenya.
Most important will be the media.
The Kenyan media is the most diverse in East Africa, with a reasonably big middle class providing a base for substantial advertising revenue and readership.
Recent liberalisation of the electronic media has had a profound effect in Nairobi.
However, outside the main urban centres, state-run Kenya Broadcasting Corporation provides the only domestic radio and television for many listeners and viewers.
Journalism in the private media is lively and informed. It can be confidently said that the era of self-censorship has largely passed.
The climate under which the media operate has improved although incidents in which journalists are arrested and harassed continue to be reported.
Moves by the government in 2000 to ban radio broadcasts in languages other than Swahili and English were not successful; vernacular broadcasting still thrives.
A media bill passed in May 2002 was heavily criticised by rights groups who said it would muzzle the press, especially in the run-up to presidential elections.
The bill significantly raised publishing fees and gave the government more control over the distribution of newspapers and magazines.
Fact file
Background: Ethnic divisions account for many of Kenya's problems.
Location: Eastern Africa, bordering the Indian Ocean, between Somalia and Tanzania
Geographic coordinates: 1 00 N, 38 00 E
Land boundaries:
total: 3,446 km
border countries: Ethiopia 830 km, Somalia 682 km, Sudan 232 km, Tanzania 769 km, Uganda 933 km
Maritime claims:
continental shelf: 200-m depth or to the depth of exploitation exclusive economic zone: 200 nm territorial sea: 12 nm.
Natural resources: gold, limestone, soda ash, salt barites, rubies, fluorspar, garnets, wildlife, hydropower
Land use:
arable land: 7%
permanent crops: 1%
permanent pastures: 37% forests and woodland: 30% other: 25% (1993 est.)
Population: 30,339,770
Age structure:
0-14 years: 43% (male 6,566,424; female 6,419,034)
15-64 years: 54% (male 8,284,719; female 8,238,121)
65 years and over: 3% (male 366,200; female 465,272) (2000 est.)
On December 27, 2002, Kenyans will vote for a new President and Members of Parliam-ent in elections that are seen by many as the threshold for a break from the past.
The elections will be held against a background of a negative economic growth rate, a political dispensation that is more tribalistic than national development and unprecedented unemployment rates.
Statistics corroborate the grim picture of Kenya in the last 20 years.
In the 1960s and ‘70s, Kenya’s annual economic growth peaked at 8%. However, by 2001, the economic growth rate had dropped sharply to -3%.
Basic infrastructure such as roads, telephones, railways and electricity have been in a state of disrepair. Because of unprecedented unemployment rates, there is rising crime in Nairobi and other major towns. Kenyan politics is defined by prominent vertical tendencies based on ethnic constituencies.
And yet one cannot say that given the political and economic situation in Kenya now, Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta or Mwai Kibaki who are the front runners in the presidential elections, will draw the excitement and hope that engulfed Uganda in 1986.
In Kenyatta and Kibaki, one still sees a thread of continuity of the old political thought because the two have no political experience outside the all-pervading KANU political psyche. So, basically this is not Uganda in 1986.
Even in those dire straits, Kenya still differs from Uganda rather conspicuously though. Every Ugandan who visits Nairobi for the first time will always tell you that “Nairobi is not your Kampala.â€
In spite of a negative economic growth from the 1980s to date, Kenya’s economy is still the biggest in East Africa. This is so, regardless of Uganda’s and Tanzania’s positive postings on the economic growth scale.
The moral, political and economic fabric of the Kenyan society has been ruined to alarming proportions.
However, prospects given by the size of the Kenyan economy draws some hope of a quick recovery if it [economy) is managed diligently.
The revitalisation of the economy and the fight against corruption is expected to take first priority in the next government.
On the political level, there will not be great expectations. Both Kibaki and Uhuru lack the revolutionary credentials to initiate radical ideas to straighten the politics.
The constitution will be reviewed though. However, the result of this constitutional review will not derive from the new leadership’s pursuit of democratisation but the need to accommodate heavyweight politicians and their ethnic constituencies as is commonplace in Kenyan politics.
What is there for Uganda?
The main contenders in the Presidential Elections are Uhuru of the ruling KANU and Mwai Kibaki of NARK, a loose coalition of opposition political parties.
President Arap Moi is of course constitutionally barred from standing; this being his second and last term in the top job.
Either way the elections go, (Uhuru or Kibaki), Kenya will still be Uganda’s neighbour in the east. It is therefore pertinent that Ugandans are watching the Kenyan elections with keen interest.
The anxiety is not helped by the fact that Ugandans will, three years from now, also go for Presidential elections in which long serving President Yoweri Museveni will not be a candidate; much the same scenario in Kenya.
So, is there anything for Uganda to look forward to in the post-Moi Kenya?
The general assumption is that Moi would most likely respect the outcome of the elections even when his candidate, Uhuru loses.
So, Uganda’s neighbour in the east will soon have either Uhuru or Kibaki as her president.
The political circumstances in Kenya point in the direction of continuity whether Uhuru Kenyatta or Mwai Kibaki is elected president.
After all the two have no political experience outside the all-pervading KANU political psyche. There will most likely be talk of the strengthening of the East African Community and eventual regional merger from the new leadership in Kenya. But that will not be new.
Unlike Ugandans, Kenyans define their political lives from an economic perspective.
So, whereas we do not expect any vibrancy in the pursuit for democratic reforms from our neighbours in the east, the post-Moi regime will most certainly be preoccupied by the revitalisation of the economy.
With an expected resumption of multilateral donor assistance and a leadership that would benefit from the lessons of past mistakes, there is hope that the Kenyan economy will go on a steady trend of recovery.
Kenya’s influence on the Ugandan society has been economic. Before 1986, Uganda was almost a net importer of consumer commodities from Kenya.
The Ugandan market for Kenyan consumer goods was so big that it was wise for some industries to relocate from Nairobi to Kisumu. In fact the industrial development in the city of Kisumu thrived on the Ugandan market.
All that changed from 1986 though.
However, given that even with a stagnant economy
Kenya’s presence in Uganda was still conspicuous, one would think that with a revived economy Uganda will host an increased investment portfolio from Kenya.
With a new US global foreign policy premised on the fight against terrorism, Kenya is most likely going to regain its strategic position.
With a very long coastline and a history of terrorist attacks, Kenya is expected to fit in the US over-all strategy to fight terrorism.
Uganda hitherto enjoyed a warm US relationship because of its willingness to fight what was seen as a downward thrust of Islamic fundamentalism stemming from the Sudan.
Now with the rebellion in southern Sudan on the verge of being solved peacefully, Kenya is most likely going to enjoy a good relationship with the US at the expense of Uganda.
President Moi survived a coup attempt led by junior Air Force officers in 1982, his regime was characterised b7y tribal unrest and economic mismanagement.
Whatever happens after his departure from office, the next government will be weaker than his because of the country’s poor economic performance.
This means that the next government will not seek to influence the trend of politics in the neighbourhood. Much as all the focus will be on the politicians, the role of the civil society in the post-Moi political dispensation should not be underestimated; given their activism in the run-up to the political changes that has made possible today’s political realities in Kenya.
Most important will be the media.
The Kenyan media is the most diverse in East Africa, with a reasonably big middle class providing a base for substantial advertising revenue and readership.
Recent liberalisation of the electronic media has had a profound effect in Nairobi.
However, outside the main urban centres, state-run Kenya Broadcasting Corporation provides the only domestic radio and television for many listeners and viewers.
Journalism in the private media is lively and informed. It can be confidently said that the era of self-censorship has largely passed.
The climate under which the media operate has improved although incidents in which journalists are arrested and harassed continue to be reported.
Moves by the government in 2000 to ban radio broadcasts in languages other than Swahili and English were not successful; vernacular broadcasting still thrives.
A media bill passed in May 2002 was heavily criticised by rights groups who said it would muzzle the press, especially in the run-up to presidential elections.
The bill significantly raised publishing fees and gave the government more control over the distribution of newspapers and magazines.
Fact file
total: 3,446 km
border countries: Ethiopia 830 km, Somalia 682 km, Sudan 232 km, Tanzania 769 km, Uganda 933 km
continental shelf: 200-m depth or to the depth of exploitation exclusive economic zone: 200 nm territorial sea: 12 nm.
arable land: 7%
permanent crops: 1%
permanent pastures: 37% forests and woodland: 30% other: 25% (1993 est.)
0-14 years: 43% (male 6,566,424; female 6,419,034)
15-64 years: 54% (male 8,284,719; female 8,238,121)
65 years and over: 3% (male 366,200; female 465,272) (2000 est.)