Kenya Is Changing!

Dec 26, 2002

TODAY 10 million Kenyans are going to the polls to elect a new president to succeed President Daniel arap Moi (officially 78) who will be retiring early next year after 24 years in power.

It is polls day today in Kenya. Will it be the same after Moi?

Tajudeen’s Thursday Post card

TODAY 10 million Kenyans are going to the polls to elect a new president to succeed President Daniel arap Moi (officially 78) who will be retiring early next year after 24 years in power. Whatever the outcome, a new president is on the cards and all the bets are that the battle royal is between the young Uhuru Kenyatta, Mr Moi’s chosen successor from KANU or the veteran politician, long-serving cabinet minister and former vice-president Mwai Kibaki, who is the joint candidate of a formidable 15-party opposition alliance.
Even a few months ago, many observers never thought that it would come to this. There were fears that President Moi, the Old Fox who has consistently out-foxed his many opponents over the years had other things up his sleeves and was not ready to relinquish power. There was even wider cynicism about the Kenyan opposition and their capacity to unite against Moi and the KANU political machinery. More radical critics of the Kenyan political elite argued that there was no difference between Moi and his opponents since all of them were KANU people at one point or another until quite recently. Therefore there was not much expectation that anything fundamental will change. After all, Kenyans (like a number of forced democracies across Africa) have, in the last two general elections, suffered the paradox of ‘voting without choosing’. The more they voted, the more the situation remained the same. I could remember in 1978, when Kenya’s founding president, Mzee Jomo Kenyatta, died and his not-so-well-known (outside the sub-region) vice-president, Daniel arap Moi was announced as the successor. The prediction of many of our lecturers, political pundits and journalists was that he was a temporary figure.
Many even speculated about the number of months he would last. And here we are, 24 years later. If nothing else we have to give the man credit for staying in power. I think he has earned that title of ‘professor of politics’ that he gave to himself.
He has been a beneficiary of that most costly of political errors: under-estimating your enemy. It is an error that is constantly made, especially by intellectuals and other educated members of our elite on this continent with tragic consequences all over the place. Who gave either Idi Amin or Samuel Doe any chances? In more recent times before Abacha’s coup in 1993, many Nigerians used to say openly how daft and stupid he was, and how he could not hold Nigeria for one week. Even IBB, the self–styled evil genius of Nigerian politics, did not believe that Abacha had any ambitions and if he did
he had what it took to realise it.
The lesson is that to succeed in politics you do not
need big degrees or be patented member of the educated elite clubs. Also we should be careful with those who have spent a long time in the corridors of power. They may not be that sharp but they know how the system works, where all the carrots are hidden but above all the levers for the big sticks to orchestrate compliance or drive opposition underground. When early in his administration, President Moi somehow diffidently proclaimed ‘nyayo’ (i.e. following in the foot-steps
of the late Kenyatta), it was ridiculed as further evidence of his not being up to it. Where are all those better politicians today?
However, today is not about Moi any more. It is about the future of Kenya. Would Kenyans trust Moi’s choice or put their fate in the opposition? The two main candidates also reveal the surreal nature of the contest. Ordinarily an electorate wanting change should be enamoured by a younger generation which should make Uhuru Kenyatta the candidate to beat.

However, he is not seen as so much the voice of the future as a prison warder from the past. The future is promised by the not-so-sprightly steps of the 71-year-old (officially too) Mzee Kibaki! If experiences in other parts of Africa are anything to go by, the election will not be decided by fundamental policy differences, of which there is none
between KANU and most of the other parties. Unfortunately the real ideological parties and candidates are marginal to the elections today. There are real concerns about the political opportunism in the opposition alliance, NARC, and the farcical process of their choosing candidates for civic and parliamentary elections. How those will matter later tomorrow is about continuing KANU rule or saying Kwaheri to it. My guess is that Kenyans are so KANU-fatigued that they want change even just for the hell of it. Thus in the famous words of the title of a book by Raila’s late father, the indomitable Oginga Odinga, it is ‘Not Yet Uhuru’. Therefore candidate Uhuru as a project may turn out to a bounced cheque, if the election is ‘reasonably’ free and fair.
I wish all Kenyans very peaceful voting and to all readers a wonderful
New Year.

Tajudeen28@yahoo.com

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