Time For A Muganda President?

John KakandeLUWEERO District Council Chairperson Hajji Abdu Nadduli is spearheading a campaign for a Muganda president to succeed President Yoweri Museveni in 2006. Nadduli, an eloquent and controversial politician, has appeared several times on local FM radio talk shows to speak on the issue.During the run-up to the presidential elections, John Zimula Mugwanya, claimed that Museveni had agreed that he would, after his second term, step down for a Catholic from Buganda to take over the presidency. Although the claims were promptly refuted by State House, rumours persisted that the three prominent Catholics from Buganda –– the Speaker of Parliament Edward Ssekandi; the Minister in charge of the presidency, Prof. Gilbert Bukenya and Ambassador Prof. Ssemakula Kiwanuka were potential successors. These rumours were fuelled by the way Ssemakula campaigned aggressively for Museveni and later fought hard to get a parliamentary seat.At the same time, the Third Deputy Premier James Wapakhabulo, also argued that the next president would come from either Buganda or the East. He argued that it would not be prudent for the next president again to come from the west since Museveni is from the same region. He also argued that it was unlikely that the next president could come from the north, which has not strongly supported the Movement all through its 16 years of rule. It is against this background that Nadduli’s campaign can be rightly contextualised. Nadduli has now received support from an unexpected quarter –– the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC). Dr James Rwanyarare, the de facto UPC leader, argued at a recent press conference that: “th-is country would be better off if it was led by the Baganda because they have a bigger stake in it.”The point, though, is for Nadduli and those who subscribe to his view to analyse historical factors which have in the past made it difficult for a Muganda to ‘hold’ the presidency. Why is it that every Muganda who has managed to come to power has hardly stayed long enough to warm the seat? Prof. Yusuf Lule was in office for 68 days, Godfrey Binaisa did slightly better, occupying the seat for about a year. Mutesa was in office, in a non-executive capacity, for hardly three years!One factor is no Muganda has ascended to the presidency through his personal heroic struggle, with a solid political or military base. All the Baganda have ascended to the presidency riding on the backs of political forces over which they have no control. Neither Lule nor Binaisa had any control over the dominant forces in the Uganda National Liberation Front. Mutesa became president on the whims of UPC under the UPC/KY alliance. Unfortunately none of the current Baganda leaders in the Movement can lay claim to a solid internal political or military power base. Even worse, with the exception of Major Kakooza Mutale, they cannot lay claim to any historical role in the five-year bush war. This renders them weak contenders to the presidency. I do not see any one of them doing better than his predecessors –– Mutesa, Lule and Binaisa.An analysis of the internal dynamics of the Movement suggests leaders from Buganda view themselves as rivals or at the extreme, enemies. They do not constitute a solid power block in the Movement. They are thus unlikely to forge a common position on anything, let alone the issue of presidential succession. This is what denied Ignatius Musaazi of Uganda National Congress and DP’s Ben Kiwa-nuka, chance to rise to power in the ‘60s. This was the basis for the formation of UPC/KY alliance, to me, an issue Nadduli and his supporters have not tackled.Ends