When shall we finish Kony off?

By Gawaya TegulleJust when you thought Joseph Kony and his Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) were on the verge of extinction as the UPDF pursued them in Sudan, the rebel leader has shown up with some rather ugly and brutal manifestations of his presence in and around the districts of Gulu, Kitgum, Apac and Pader. So far 10 people have been killed in six strikes in the last 10 days. More recently last Friday, Marshal Odur, Northern Region Police Commander, had his vehicle hit by a rocket propelled grenade (RPG), killing one person and injuring several others.On Monday the LRA burnt a vehicle and abducted 14 kids from Lalogi Central Primary School. Another chapter opens in this epic of misery, another phase in the blood-bath in Northern Uganda.No longer wanted in Sudan and certainly not welcome in Uganda (except with arms up in surrender), the shaggy-haired rebel is proving more dangerous than a wounded lion.In the last two weeks, bullets and RPGs have shattered the calm in Acholi-land and once again, blood is flowing along quite a few village paths as the rebels attack and decimate anything that moves on two legs.Military sources reveal that although Kony is still in Sudan, one of his main men, Vincent Otti, was sent back to Uganda two weeks ago for two main strategic reasons. First, he was instructed to wreak havoc and kill any person he meets in order to attract the UPDF back from Sudan. That would mean that Kony, who remained in Sudan with the bulk of the army, would have some breathing space and would be able to re-organise. Secondly, Otti’s move was a classic, even if brutal, public relations strategy: Wreak enough havoc to keep a platoon of journalists busy all day every day. That would be a nice way to counter the bad press the LRA has suffered as their losses mount, along with suggestions the merciless killer army is on the verge of extinction. With several bloody and brutal strikes, the LRA would clearly tell the world “We are very much alive and strong.” Otti linked up with his colleague Kwoyelo, who for a long time had been operating in Kilak and split his about 400 fighters into smaller 20-strong groups, with instructions to roam around, sowing mayhem along the roads.Manifesting a firm belief in his strategy, imagining that Otti had distracted the army, Kony and his killer brigade last week came down from the Imatong mountains, where he had suffered from artillery fire, and into Kit valley. There, the UPDF killed 10 of his forces and captured an assortment of weapons.The people who had started returning home following the long lull in attacks are fleeing back to the internally displaced peoples camps. Investors who had given Gulu a chance seem intent on pulling out. NGO work has slowed down as security becomes suspect. NGO workers have been advised not to move to certain places, unless escorted by security— the LRA has no mercy for aid workers. Precaution is the watchword everywhere. “The mood is one of caution,” says Denye Kalebbo, spokesman of World Vision, the biggest NGO operating in Gulu. “We are talking of a place where this is not new— the lulls in the war and then surprise returns by Kony. “People are anxious, asking whether it is possible that most of the soldiers are in Sudan and are stretched too thin, therefore accounting for the renewed strikes,” explains Kalebbo, adding that these are his personal impressions based on his recent visit to Gulu, not a World Vision position.As the situation tenses up, people with relatives around Gulu town are taking up residence in town, avoiding the villages where Kony’s strikes are a likelihood.“The people have developed survival skills. They know how to sense trouble— a peculiar sixth sense at work,” says Kalebbo. “Before Kony strikes, the people will have sensed it long before and taken steps to prevent disaster.”How did the LRA manage to return to Uganda?“You cannot seal off a border hundreds of miles long,” says UPDF spokesman Shaban Bantariza in effort to explain how Otti infiltrated Uganda. “You can only do that when you have a human military wall with each soldier three meters from the other. To do that we'd have to be nowhere else and that would not solve any problem. Kony may have less means to fight, but he can find a way to sneak through into Uganda.”Part of the problem in the war effort is the geographical environment in which the war is being waged. Southern Sudan is a huge and extensive mountainous jungle with plenty of rivers and valleys to cross and mountains to climb. There are gorges and forests and no roads.It would be a quite-easily-done affair for the UPDF to finish off Kony in conventional warfare, on a face to face, identifiable battle-front. But this is not the case, as Kony fighters break up into small groups and are mobile. They agree to meet at a certain place and after striking; each goes their own way and they team up later. They cannot be monitored by helicopter and have to be dealt with by a bigger group of forces tracking their footsteps.This means that for all practical purposes, the UPDF is not really fighting. They are merely hunting for the LRA in a huge jungle, the way hunters go for their quarry in the forest. They never know when and where exactly he will show up or be found. Will Kony be captured soon?“You can’t just capture a commander who has thousands of forces,” explains Bantariza. “Kony is not just somebody you easily pick from Kampala Road. You can only capture him when he has just 20 or 30 guards left.For now it is a question of keeping on knocking off the forces he has. The most important thing about this war is not merely capturing Kony, but curtailing his ability to fight. After all, we finished Alice Lakwena’s Holy Spirit Movement without capturing her.”So far there is no evidence of continued Sudanese support for Kony, Bantariza says, adding that the UPDF has faithfully handed over camps to the Sudanese when captured. But the war cause suffered setbacks when somehow Otti sneaked back to the camps, which were supposed to be manned by Sudan government forces.Apparently, he retrieved some of the caches he had hidden and came to Uganda with them to back his terror campaign.Army Commander Maj. Gen. James Kazini, who is now stationed up north to oversee the operation, has established Joint Command Centres (JCCs) and deployed them along the roads. Their purpose is to prevent the LRA from moving about freely and also react quickly in case of any attacks. They receive quick information and spread it to the mobile forces. Mobile UPDF forces are tracking rebels in the hills of Kilak and more have been deployed to protect Kabalega National Park so that the rebels don’t get there. The way forward is simple: more fire. “The government of Sudan is not complaining about our continued presence in southern Sudan,” says Bantariza. “So what people should expect from now on is intensified operations and clashes with the LRA.”