The dice is already cast
Nov 19, 2002
THE cold was biting to the bone as winter winds whistled through the leafless trees at Queen’s Park, the chosen venue for the Toronto war protesters
LETTER FROM TORONTO
By Opiyo Oloya
THE cold was biting to the bone as winter winds whistled through the leafless trees at Queen’s Park, the chosen venue for the Toronto war protesters.
Yet, as a Scottish piper complete with kilt and bagpipe played a mournful tune and a nearby group of peace activists banged away on a couple of African jembe drums, protesters streamed in from all directions.
The estimated 5,000 to 8,000 protesters came from as far away as Ottawa and Montreal to show their complete opposition to US aggressive policy toward Iraq. Many carried posters with signs that read: George Bush is the real terrorist. DEFEND IRAQ AGAINST IMPERIALIST ATTACK! and “Feed Iraqi Children With Food, Not Bombsâ€.
In fact, the Toronto protest was one of many anti-war demonstrations taking place all over Canada, the US and Europe last weekend, with many more set to come.
Unfortunately, despite their growing numbers, the anti-war protesters are too late. The dice has been cast and Saddam Hussein is going down sooner than the world anticipates. Here are just a few pointers on how the war against Iraq will unfold over the next eight to ten weeks with first bombs hitting in mid-January or early February.
Foremost, Americans got what they wanted from the world, namely UN Resolution 1441, which on the surface appears to be about the return of the UN inspectors led by Chief UN weapon inspector Hans Blix. Well, Mr. Blix and his team of 30 workers arrived in Baghdad on Monday to a warm welcome by the Iraqis. In the next several weeks, Saddam Hussein will likely comply with UN demands by releasing a list of all weapon systems in his arsenal, thereby fulfilling part of the resolution.
President Bush, however, will decide that Iraq has not been completely truthful, and launch an attack anyway. In this scenario, the Pentagon will claim to have credible intelligence report outlining Iraqi secret weapons program. Though there will be no direct evidence of Iraq’s guilt, the war will have started, and by the time it ends, it will be too late to insist that the US produce evidence.
By far, the most difficult part of the resolution for Iraq to comply with is the one that says, “DECIDES FURTHER that Iraq shall not take or threaten hostile acts directed against any representative or personnel of the United Nations or of any member state taking action to uphold any council resolution.â€
The Americans insisted on this wording in Resolution 1441 because of previous UN resolutions (specifically, UNSCR 686, UNSCR 688 and UNSCR 949), which prohibit Iraqi activities against Kurds and other minorities, and create a no-man’s land between Iraq and Kuwait. To date, even as late as two days ago, British and Americans jets enforced these resolutions in what has become the no-fly zones in northern and southern Iraq, by bombing Iraqi air defence systems. Each time, the Iraqi would feebly attempt to shoot down the planes with limited success.
This cat-and-mouse game has been going on for over ten years now. However, under the new resolution 1441, a single anti-aircraft fire from Iraqi military is enough to start the war. That should not be difficult since American and British planes flying out of Qatar’s Al Udeid Airbase have escalated daily surveillance over Iraq’s northern borders.
In fact, for anyone who cares to read the signs, the question is not whether the US will hit Iraq, but how soon. For example, over the last several, Iraqi exiles in Europe and USA have met with American oil executives to divvy up Iraqi oil. It’s widely expected that Iraqi National Congress (INC) leader Ahmed Chalabi will head an Iraqi provisional government following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.
Why, you would ask, should the exiles be so confident unless they know something the rest of the world does not?
Then there is the shameless courting of potential US allies in the war against Iraq. Britain is already in the bag, so there is nothing the US administration needs to do to convince Tony Blair about the war. But Canadian Prime Minister, Jean Chretien is a whole different story-Like most Canadians, Chretien does not view war with Iraq as inevitable, and like most Canadians, he still believes in the ultimate fairness of the UN as an international body.
Naturally, Americans are working overtime to convince Canada that the US will only attack Iraqi for violations of Resolution 1441. It was for that reason that US Secretary of State Collin Powell came to Ottawa late last week to make the point in person.
So, if war on Iraq is a matter of time, why are the peace activists even bothering at all?
For one thing, the unchallenged US power in the world has become the rallying point of many political groups. The Toronto rally included communists, socialists, anti-poverty activists, anti-globalisation activists, groups for equitable school funding, and even Black Action groups opposed to the manner in which the Toronto police single out blacks for arrest.
Secondly, while the peace activists will not save Saddam’s neck from the guillotine, they are laying the groundwork for effective future political participation, namely, elections.
By Opiyo Oloya
THE cold was biting to the bone as winter winds whistled through the leafless trees at Queen’s Park, the chosen venue for the Toronto war protesters.
Yet, as a Scottish piper complete with kilt and bagpipe played a mournful tune and a nearby group of peace activists banged away on a couple of African jembe drums, protesters streamed in from all directions.
The estimated 5,000 to 8,000 protesters came from as far away as Ottawa and Montreal to show their complete opposition to US aggressive policy toward Iraq. Many carried posters with signs that read: George Bush is the real terrorist. DEFEND IRAQ AGAINST IMPERIALIST ATTACK! and “Feed Iraqi Children With Food, Not Bombsâ€.
In fact, the Toronto protest was one of many anti-war demonstrations taking place all over Canada, the US and Europe last weekend, with many more set to come.
Unfortunately, despite their growing numbers, the anti-war protesters are too late. The dice has been cast and Saddam Hussein is going down sooner than the world anticipates. Here are just a few pointers on how the war against Iraq will unfold over the next eight to ten weeks with first bombs hitting in mid-January or early February.
Foremost, Americans got what they wanted from the world, namely UN Resolution 1441, which on the surface appears to be about the return of the UN inspectors led by Chief UN weapon inspector Hans Blix. Well, Mr. Blix and his team of 30 workers arrived in Baghdad on Monday to a warm welcome by the Iraqis. In the next several weeks, Saddam Hussein will likely comply with UN demands by releasing a list of all weapon systems in his arsenal, thereby fulfilling part of the resolution.
President Bush, however, will decide that Iraq has not been completely truthful, and launch an attack anyway. In this scenario, the Pentagon will claim to have credible intelligence report outlining Iraqi secret weapons program. Though there will be no direct evidence of Iraq’s guilt, the war will have started, and by the time it ends, it will be too late to insist that the US produce evidence.
By far, the most difficult part of the resolution for Iraq to comply with is the one that says, “DECIDES FURTHER that Iraq shall not take or threaten hostile acts directed against any representative or personnel of the United Nations or of any member state taking action to uphold any council resolution.â€
The Americans insisted on this wording in Resolution 1441 because of previous UN resolutions (specifically, UNSCR 686, UNSCR 688 and UNSCR 949), which prohibit Iraqi activities against Kurds and other minorities, and create a no-man’s land between Iraq and Kuwait. To date, even as late as two days ago, British and Americans jets enforced these resolutions in what has become the no-fly zones in northern and southern Iraq, by bombing Iraqi air defence systems. Each time, the Iraqi would feebly attempt to shoot down the planes with limited success.
This cat-and-mouse game has been going on for over ten years now. However, under the new resolution 1441, a single anti-aircraft fire from Iraqi military is enough to start the war. That should not be difficult since American and British planes flying out of Qatar’s Al Udeid Airbase have escalated daily surveillance over Iraq’s northern borders.
In fact, for anyone who cares to read the signs, the question is not whether the US will hit Iraq, but how soon. For example, over the last several, Iraqi exiles in Europe and USA have met with American oil executives to divvy up Iraqi oil. It’s widely expected that Iraqi National Congress (INC) leader Ahmed Chalabi will head an Iraqi provisional government following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.
Why, you would ask, should the exiles be so confident unless they know something the rest of the world does not?
Then there is the shameless courting of potential US allies in the war against Iraq. Britain is already in the bag, so there is nothing the US administration needs to do to convince Tony Blair about the war. But Canadian Prime Minister, Jean Chretien is a whole different story-Like most Canadians, Chretien does not view war with Iraq as inevitable, and like most Canadians, he still believes in the ultimate fairness of the UN as an international body.
Naturally, Americans are working overtime to convince Canada that the US will only attack Iraqi for violations of Resolution 1441. It was for that reason that US Secretary of State Collin Powell came to Ottawa late last week to make the point in person.
So, if war on Iraq is a matter of time, why are the peace activists even bothering at all?
For one thing, the unchallenged US power in the world has become the rallying point of many political groups. The Toronto rally included communists, socialists, anti-poverty activists, anti-globalisation activists, groups for equitable school funding, and even Black Action groups opposed to the manner in which the Toronto police single out blacks for arrest.
Secondly, while the peace activists will not save Saddam’s neck from the guillotine, they are laying the groundwork for effective future political participation, namely, elections.