Race hot with Atubo's entry

He never ventures into something unless he is assured of success or considerable gain By Gawaya Tegulle Just when everyone thought the Presidential race was closed, at least to the more serious and consequential contenders, a thunderbolt burst out of a clear sky. Daniel Omara Atubo, Otuke County Member of Parliament, who had been watching with what seemed no more than passive interest, added vigour to an already gruelling race by declaring his intention to contest the presidency just a fortnight to nomination. Atubo may have taken his seat at the dinner table when the others were already belching with satisfaction, but nobody is taking him as a good joke. For one, he has no record of playing political clown. Latecomer though he be, Atubo is spoken of as calm and deliberate. He knows, quite well, which side of his bread is buttered and never ventures into something unless he is assured of success or considerable gain. There are two major reasons for Atubo's emergence at the last minute. First is a direct consequence of the failure of the multi-partyists to agree on a single and compromise presidential candidate, despite persistent efforts by the Inter-Party Forum (IPF) over the last three months. "It was largely because most of these candidates represent a particular grouping and are therefore not easy to win over," explains Atubo. "The 1996 cooperation was because of the common ground that Ssemogerere was a clear unifying factor, being president of a big historical national party. He was also well-known having contested before. And we had a unity forged in the Multi-party caucus of the Constituent Assembly (CA). So it was easy for us all to rally behind him. "Now that Ssemogerere is not in the race, Obote is, of course, out of question, the ground is level for newcomers and these cannot easily agree." Now with the Political Organisations Bill (POB) about to be passed, other interests have come in. Partyists are now looking at building their parties and future leadership. They would like to groom future leaders and build their capacity to shoulder responsibility when parties are registered. Moreover, campaign resources have been generated by individual candidates, none of whom is willing to hand them over on a silver plate to a common candidate. The partyists feel that even though the priority now is to get rid of Museveni, after that – if they ever do – they will be tussling it out amongst themselves. So if they do too much for each other now, they may actually be building their own future opponents. Second reason, says Atubo, is that he identified a niche for himself, "an MP with a unique record of my type". He served as State Attorney in the ministry of Justice until 1976 when he joined Kampala City Council as City Advocate from 1976 to 1977 when he fled to exile in Tanzania. He lectured law at the Cooperative College, Moshi, from 1977 to 1979. When he returned to Uganda after the fall of Idi Amin, he became a member of the National Consultative Council (NCC) in the interim government. He went into private legal practice till 1985 when he was appointed Secretary to Bank of Uganda, a post he held for two years. In 1987, he became Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and in 1988, served a one-year stint as State Minister for Defence. In 1990, he was charged with treason and detained for one year in Luzira. On his release, he resumed his seat as NRC member for Otuke and in 1994 was elected CA delegate for the county. He went on to represent Otuke in Parliament from 1996 to date. It would be an overstatement to describe Atubo as a serious contender for State House for two reasons. One, he is late. You do not join a presidential race two weeks to nomination and win just like that. Atubo is confident that his team will be able to gather the 100 signatures from at least 34 districts. Maybe they can. But he would need to raise at least sh500 million to mount a presidential campaign. No small money. But more important is that it is not enough to simply open campaign offices at the district headquarters. Atubo would have to create structures among Uganda's 20 million people, which go down to the voters. You cannot spend so much money so quickly just to build temporary structures, which you will tear down after the campaign. It is parties that can afford that kind of thing. Moreover, Atubo does not have enough time to establish rapport with voters in Uganda outside the north and garner support worth shouting about. But this aside, Atubo's entry could compound an already complicated race that gets more interesting by the day and is billed to be the most exciting ever in Uganda. There are several implications of Atubo's move. Pundits agree that Atubo's aspirancy suggests the northern vote (Gulu, Kitgum, Lira, Apac) becomes more contentious. He is seen as part of a new breed of leaders coming from the most troubled part of the country which, since the exit of Obote and Tito Okello in 1985 and 1986 respectively, had never so boldly expressed presidential ambition. "Museveni has demonised the north using Milton Obote and Tito Okello. People are excited that we now have a new kind of leadership coming up," says an MP from the north who insisted on anonymity. "A northern sweep for Atubo means the Multi-partyists' vote could be split further, allowing the Movement a clear win." However, by the same token, that also means Atubo could emerge as a spoiler par excellence by dividing up what already seems to be a chopped up country-wide vote and contribute to a second round of voting for lack of a clear winner (with over 50% according to the Constitution). Thirdly, Atubo apparently first studied the status quo keenly. When he was fully persuaded a vacuum existed in the north, there being no contender from the north, a place where President Museveni lost decisively to Ssemogerere in 1996, he moved in for the kill. Atubo knew only too well that his popularity in the north would be translated into votes like no other aspirant. Atubo himself admits as much. "The northern vote is what buoyed Ssemogerere in 1996 at the expense of President Museveni," says a Movement Secretariat source who requested anonymity. "This time round it could almost certainly go to Atubo. I do not think that in 1996 Museveni lost because the north loved Ssemogerere that much. Rather that it was a protest vote against some weaknesses of the Movement. We don't know whether much has changed." Atubo, by virtue of the fact that he almost certainly has a ready constituency in the form of northern Uganda, emerges as the kind of candidate that all the frontrunners could soon be running to talk to. This is because while everyone knows he cannot win, he seems assured of northern support, something none of the other candidates can talk of with certainty. His role, therefore, is not one of presidential aspirant but of a coalition partner up for grabs by whosoever is willing. Will anyone have to talk to Atubo? Ends