Museveni Maintains Poll Lead

By Carles Wendo YOWERI Museveni is still leading other presidential candidates with a sufficient majority to give him a straight win, a second New Vision opinion poll has indicated. The survey done countrywide between January 26 and February 2, three weeks after nominations, is a follow-up of last month's pre-nomination opinion poll which put Museveni ahead with 54%. Asked who they intended to vote for, again 54% of the respondents said they would vote Museveni in the March 6 presidential elections. Col. Kizza Besigye remained second to Museveni but his support increased from 17% in the previous poll to 37%, presumably due to the alliance with Nasser Sebaggala who has dropped out of the race since the last opinion poll was conducted. Sixteen per cent had preferred Sebaggala in the first opinion poll. Sebaggala has since become Besigye's special campaign manager. Support for third-placed Aggrey Awori has fallen from 11% to 5%. Kibirige Mayanja came fourth with 1.7%, a rise from 0.6%. He is followed by Chapaa Karuhanga whose support has doubled from 0.4% to 0.8%. Francis Bwengye who got no vote in the first opinion poll this time had 0.4% of the respondents saying they would vote him. Charles Senkubuge who had 0.3% in the first opinion poll dropped out of the race shortly before the second poll. The survey was initiated and sponsored by The New Vision, and conducted by the company's research department. A total of 2,970 registered voters were selected from 20 districts, representing a regional balance. This is an increase from 2,000 respondents in last month's survey. The respondents were randomly selected from the central districts of Kampala, Luweero, Mukono, Masaka and Mubende. In the east, the survey covered Jinja, Mbale, Iganga, Soroti and Busia. In western Uganda, the interviewers went to Mbarara, Rukungiri, Bushenyi, Kabarole and Hoima while in the north they covered Gulu, Lira, Moroto, Moyo and Kitgum. Respondents were randomly sampled from their homes, shops, markets, offices, gardens, streets and institutions. The sampling reflected Uganda's demographic structure. A total of 51% of the respondents were female while 49% were male. Just fewer than 20% were urban dwellers while 80.3% were in the rural areas. Respondents were asked whom they would vote for as first and second choice, and which candidate would best manage security, poverty and jobs, corruption, health and education and road maintenance. Museveni was most popular among the women, with 61% of the female respondents and 47% of male respondents saying they would vote him. Compared to the previous survey, Museveni gained support among the women by two percentage points. Besigye on the other hand was preferred by 45% of the men and 31% of the women. Support for Museveni was also highest in the rural areas, where 55% of the respondent said they would vote him, compared to 52% of urban dwellers. Besigye was supported by 39% of urban and 37% of the rural respondents. The New Vision Editor-in Chief, Mr. William Pike, said the survey could have slightly under-estimated Museveni's support. "We think that while the survey is broadly accurate, it may have under-estimated Museveni's support by a few percentage points. It's possible they (interviewers) went more to peri-urban areas than rural areas. Though they made great efforts to get into the rural areas, there were obviously practical limitations on how deep they could go," he said. The respondents considered Museveni the best candidate to manage security, poverty and jobs, corruption, health and education and road maintenance. He scored highest on security where 56% of the respondents said he was best candidate and lowest on corruption (49%). Besigye was runner-up to Museveni in all these aspects, with corruption as his strongest point, where he polled 41%. Between the two surveys Museveni's strongest hold shifted from central to western Uganda. In western Uganda, Museveni's position has strengthened since the last New Vision poll, with 71% saying they would vote him, compared to 26% for Besigye. In Besigye's home district of Rukungiri, Museveni appears to have asserted himself, with 56.5% saying they support him compared to 43.5% for Besigye. In the last poll Besigye had 80% while Museveni had 16% in Rukungiri. In central Uganda support for Museveni appears to remain steady with 61% saying they support him, compared to 32% for Besigye. Mayanja got 5% support in Buganda, the only region where the poll indicated significant support for him. Northern Uganda is the only region where Besigye was ahead of Museveni, polling 53% compared to Museveni's 27%. Besigye was most popular in Lira where he polled 73%, followed by Gulu (62%), Kitgum (44%), Moroto (39%). In Moyo Museveni beat Besigye with 46% against 38%. Overall, Museveni's support in northern Uganda fell from 45% to 27% between the first and second opinion polls. In eastern Uganda the two candidates were running neck and neck. Besigye gained from 8% in the previous survey to 46% but remains just behind Museveni who polled 47%. Museveni was stronger in Soroti and Busia while Besigye was stronger in Mbale, Iganga and Jinja. Museveni had more support among the older than younger respondents, but remained ahead of Besigye in all age groups. Sixty five per cent of respondents aged over 55 and 64% of those aged 45 - 55 years were for Museveni, compared to 55% of those aged 35 - 44, 48% of those aged 25 - 34 and 53% of the age group 15 - 24. Support for Besigye was higher among the younger respondents, with 40% of those aged 18 - 24 and 43% of the age group 25 - 34 saying they would vote him. Comparatively 37% of the age group 35 - 44 and 29% of those aged over 45 years said they would vote Besigye. Ends