What is Besigye planning to do?

By Patrick Luganda COLONEL Kizza Besigye has escaped to the United States of America. The Monitor quoted Shaka Ssali, a Ugandan-born journalist, as saying: “He says that he is going to use constitutional means to bring democracy to Uganda but that if that doe not work, he will use non-traditional means.” Ssali was interviewing Besigye on Voice of America’s Africa World Tonight programme. The mention of non-traditional means and the manner of Besigye’s escape from Uganda has touched off fears that a guerrilla war could break out again in Uganda. The timing of the exit brings back memories of Museveni’s going to the bush soon after the 1980 December general election. Mary Jeffers, the Public Affairs Officer at the United States Embassy says that the good relationship between Uganda and the USA will not be affected by Besigye’s presence in the US. “The United States and Uganda have a very strong relationship. We expect that relationship to continue,” says Jeffers. However there are speculations that given the strict conditions surrounding the issuance of travel documents to the US there is no way that Besigye could have got a visa without a nod from officials at the US embassy. What reason did Besigye give to gain entry to the US? Is he in the States as a student, a tourist, a guest of the US government or for medical treatment? “We do not give out information about individual visa applications. That is a policy that runs across the board for all applicants. All I can say is that we issue visas to people who qualify according to our laws,” says Jeffers. Caroline Lamwaka, an MA graduate of International Politics and Security Studies, comments: “Besigye could encourage others to flee who may not be necessarily associated with him. His actions could also cause increased insecurity because the rebels will fell energised by his action,” says Lamwaka. Norbert Mao, the Member of Parliament for Gulu Municipality, says that if war breaks out, Museveni will be to blame because of the way he has suppressed the opposition. “Whatever happens now Museveni is to blame. Whether it is war or something worse, Museveni has pushed us to far including Besigye. We are running out of choices. Whatever you try the state machinery muzzles you. If you fight through legitimate organs they amend the Constitution to nullify the constitutional victory. Those who make peaceful change impossible make violent change inevitable,” says Mao. However, Lt Col Phinehas Katirima, the army spokesman and public relations officer, warns that if Besigye tried the military option, he would be crushed like those before him. “When he starts fighting a system that is still liked by many people he will follow the other groups before him like Lakwena, FOBA, 9th October, Itongwa and others. They mistimed trying to fight the system and failed. If he chooses to fight he will follow the others,” says Katirima. So many wars have been fought in recent history in our country that often people think that it is a legitimate right for them to resort to military might to change the government of the day. Speaking at a talk show over the Voice of America on Monday, Besigye said that he felt energised to continue fighting the evils in Uganda. “I am happy to be here. I feel free. I feel energised to continue fighting the evils I left in Uganda,” he said from Washington DC. Besigye said he was not yet decided whether to carry out his activities within or outside Uganda but was still studying the situation. Students of international conflict resolution say that the support of exiled opposition figures has lost momentum with more focus on dealing with internally based opposition in the affected countries. “The day when politics of exile mattered are over. It can only work when there is international consensus that the particular country does not tolerate internal dissent. The success of any reform agenda will depend on the presence of the leader here,” says Robert Kabushenga, a political and social commentator. By going away from the local political scene, Kabushenga argues, Besigye leaves a vacuum in the leadership of the opposition. “This realistically opens way for someone else to take over. Someone who is ready to take on Government as a voice for the disgruntled. Look at exiled opposition leaders like Obote, Binaisa, Otai. They all lost control of local struggles. Even the Lord’s Resistance Army leaders could not control it. The local struggle continues on its own dynamics,” says Kabushenga.