Ebola finally on the way out

World Health Organisation says there is no need to restrict the movement of people in and out of Uganda By Charles Wendo THOUGH the ebola virus raised fresh fears when it killed Dr. Matthew Lukwiya, records from the National Ebola Task Force indicate that it is diminishing. For the first three weeks of October, the number of people admitted with the ebola haemorrhagic fever daily increased rapidly. It reached a peak on October 21 when 17 people became ill in one day. Since then it has been declining. Mbarara has been declared ebola-free, after six weeks elapsed without any new case. Over the last three weeks, the total number of patients admitted in Gulu and Masindi has not exceeded five daily. In Masindi, it has been limited to one family and some health workers. Experts say this trend is a sign that the ebola epidemic will be eradicated, though no one can say exactly when. Dr. Alex Opio, assistant commissioner for national disease control, says, "If things go on like this, in a few weeks we may be able to record zero cases on a permanent basis." The WHO Kampala representative, Dr. Oladapo Walker, says WHO is confident that there is no need for anybody to cancel a trip to Uganda or restrict the movement of people and goods into and out of Uganda. Prof. Francis Omaswa, the Director General of Health Services, says despite this "positive result", the ebola team will remain vigilant until 42 days after the last case. Only then will Uganda be declared ebola-free. "Somewhere along the way we went for two to three days without new cases. This is the normal behaviour of epidemics. You reach a peak, come down then get later peaks that are lower than the previous ones. We may get another peak, but lower than this," he says. In a typical ebola outbreak, the virus spreads rapidly before anyone knows what it is. Once laboratory tests confirm ebola, it causes terror. People improve hygiene and avoid direct contact with patients, dead bodies and contaminated materials. Even after the disease is diagnosed and people become cautious, the number of patients continues to rise for a while. Some people become ill as late as three weeks after they contract the virus. The number of patients reaches a peak then gradually declines and reaches zero. Since the epidemic struck Uganda, it has killed 162 people. 143 were in Gulu, 15 in Masindi and four in Mbarara. We have not seen the last death. This is the biggest ebola epidemic ever. A total of 421 people have suffered the high fever, aches and bleeding tendencies of ebola. Three hundred eight nine people were in Gulu, 25 in Masindi and five in Mbarara. Previously the biggest outbreak was the first ever ebola epidemic in Yambuku in the current Democratic Republic of Congo in 1976. It affected 318 people. Yambuku lies near the Ebola river where the virus gets its name. At least 250 people in Gulu and 150 in Masindi who made contact with ebola victims are closely being monitored. Health officials say that judging from the behaviour of ebola, a few will become ill. Out of over 4,000 contacts monitored since October, 421 have become ill. The majority was declared free after they did not fall ill for over three weeks. In another record, only 38% of the ebola patients in Uganda have died. In all six previous outbreaks in four other countries, ebola killed 50% to 88% of its patients. Though there is no specific cure, 240 of the people who suffered from ebola are now able to walk again. This is more than the total of all the people who recovered from all previous ebola outbreaks elsewhere in the world. Currently the world's best ebola experts are in Uganda. This is probably the biggest number of ebola experts that has ever gathered in one place in the world. However, the fear and stigma caused by the outbreak remains a big challenge. Omaswa says fear and rumours help disease investigators to identify all cases, but cause socio-economic disturbance if done in excess. After going through the gruesome course of ebola, some survivors have faced unnecessary isolation and rejection from society. Ugandans have been unfairly denied visas or deported from some countries due to the ebola scare. Busy commercial areas have been momentarily deserted after people scampered for fear that someone might have ebola. Ebola rumours have come from all over the country, but laboratory tests have ruled out all except in Gulu, Masindi and Mbarara. In medical terms, a rumour is any disease information from the public that has not been confirmed medically. At least on two occasions, crime suspects have escaped after duping the Police that they had ebola. Ends