Constitutional ruling hits NRM hardest
Feb 05, 2011
THE National Resistance Movement (NRM) will be the biggest winner and loser if independent MPs running as party flag bearers for the next elections are disqualified as the Constitution Court recommended.
By John Semakula
THE National Resistance Movement (NRM) will be the biggest winner and loser if independent MPs running as party flag bearers for the next elections are disqualified as the Constitution Court recommended.
The Court also ruled that party MPs running as independent candidates be thrown out of Parliament and the election race.
The Electoral Commission has commissioned its legal experts to advise on how to proceed.
At the same time the Speaker of Parliament, Edward Sekandi, has asked the Electoral Commission to furnish him with a list of the affected MPs as he awaits the Supreme Court ruling on the matter next Friday.
Out of 70 MPs likely to be thrown out, 49 are independents who have been nominated as NRM flag bearers and 14 are NRM legislators nominated as independents after losing in the primaries.
Seven are Independent MPs who have been nominated as Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) flag bearers while three are FDC legislators running as independents.
The Social Democratic Party, Uganda People’s Congress and Uganda Federal Alliance would each lose one.
The NRM appears to be losing a big number of flag bearers but in reality it may not be affected as much as smaller political parties, because it has fronted a candidate in every constituency.
In some of the constituencies where its flag bearers are affected by the ruling, NRM has independent candidates inclined to it, who may be elected. Independent candidates inclined to NRM may promote its interests as is the case in the current Parliament. But the Opposition parties do not have so many independents inclined to them, so if they lose flag bearers, they have no candidates to represent their interests.
If the ruling is upheld, the NRM would reap big in the Kampala mayoral race. Opposition-leaning independent candidate Erias Lukwago and Michael Mabikke of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) would be disqualified. These two are the biggest challengers to the NRM flag bearer, Peter Sematimba.
Lukwago was a Democratic Party (DP) member but chose to contest as an independent, ignoring advice from his party to stand on its ticket.
On the other hand, Mabikke was in 2006 elected as an independent MP, but he is now standing as an SDP candidate. If Lukwago and Mabikke are disqualified, Ssematimba would have a much easier race.
NRM may lose some upcountry constituencies in the same way the opposition is likely to lose its grip on Kampala, although a win in the city is considered more vital.
In Otuke, UPC candidate Jacinto Ogwal will be unopposed if Omara Atubo, who is an independent MP but contesting as the NRM flag bearer, is disqualified from the race.
If Mawokota North’s Peter Clever Mutuluza is technically kicked out of the race, the NRM party flag bearer Amelia Kyambadde will spend the remaining days of the campaigns wining and dining with her supporters. There are several other contenders for the seat, but the main battle has been between Kyambadde and Mutuluza. There is a possibility of Mutuluza’s supporters’ giving their support to the other five contenders, but Kyambadde, being strongest contender, is likely to benefit most.
In Bugabula, Kamuli district, the removal of Asuman Kiyingi, the state minister for lands, is likely to favour NRM candidate Henry Kibarya.
Kibarya floored Kiyingi in the primaries but the minister refused to concede defeat and decided to stand as an independent. If the ruling is not executed, the disunity in the NRM camp may still give FDC’s Salaamu Musumba victory.
In West Budama North, NRM-leaning independent Fox Odoi, must be rejoicing, because the ruling technically threw his opponent, William Okecho, outof the race. The two fought bitterly in the primaries, which Okecho won. the petition, which has affected 70 MPs, was filed by George Owor against Okecho and the Attorney General.
In Kyenjonjo district, where tensions have been flared between the Bakiga and Batoro over Mwenge South, the ruling would give David Muhumuza, the NRM flag bearer, victory against Tom Butime, an independent. Muhumuza beat Butime, the incumbent, in the primaries but Batoro elders disregarded his victory, because he is a migrant.
In Arua Municipality, FDC MP Akbar Godi is in real trouble. On trial for the murder of his wife, Godi was at the beginning of the week remanded in Luzira Prison waiting for judgment in the case. The Constitutional Court ruling only deepens his woesalthough it would reduce his rival, FDC’s Amina Atako’s troubles, as she only have NRM candidate, Ajedra Aridru, to face.
Cecelia Ogwal is a lady known for surviving political waves including disagreeing with her UPC colleagues. She also lost her seat in the 7th Parliament but fought and came back as an independent in the current Parliament.
In Parliament, she worked with the FDC team and last year she announced that she had crossed over and today, she is one of the MPs pondering what to do after the ruling. If she is pushed out of the race, she leaves behind Ruth Adupa and Salome Ejang (NRM) and UPC candidates for the Dokolo Woman MP seat. The opposition appears strong in the constituency and NRM must double its efforts in the campaigns to grab the seat.
Margaret Muhanga fought bitterly in the NRM primaries to retain the NRM flag for the Kabarole Woman but she was floored by Victoria Busingye Rusoke. Muhanga decided to run as an independent, citing rigging in the primaries, but the ruling may affect her chances.
In Kibuku County, NRM’s Saleh Kamba must be jubilating. He is facing water state minister Jennifer Namuyangu. During the NRM primaries the two fought a bitter war characterised by full scale violence.
Kamba a retired UPDF soldier finally edged out Namuyangu but she chose to contest as an independent.
In Mukono South, God seems not to have abandoned the Rev. Peter Bakaluba Mukasa, the NRM flag bearer. The cleric withdrew from Mukono North after being defeated by Betty Nambooze and he sought refuge in Mukono South.
But in the new Constituency he went to, he was received with anger by the camp of the current area MP Hajjat Janat Mukwaya, who supported the Mukono Woman MP, Mary Nalugo Sekiziyivu. The two went for the NRM primaries and Bakaluba was nominated as the NRM flag bearer and Nalugo was running is an independent candidate inclined to the party.
The ruling leaves Nalugo’s political career hanging in the balance. The NRM’s chances of winning the seat had reduced because they would have had to share the party’s votes.
In Oyam South County in Oyam District, the ruling would kick out the strongest two of the strongest candidates, Ishaa Otto t and Betty Amongi. Otto is a UPC MP contesting as independent, while Amongi is an independent MP vying as the UPC flag bearer. If they are disqualified, NRM stands a higher chance of grabbing the seat.
In Vurra county, the removal of Simon Ejua would give Dr. Sam Okuonzi hope of beating the UPC, DP and FDC candidates. He beat Ejua in the NRM primaries but the latter did not concede defeat. Ejua is the State Minister for Transport.
There are seven candidates eyeing Ibanda North. NRM, FDC and UFA have each got a candidate. However, for NRM to be able to edge out its opponents, it does not need an independent inclined to it contesting. But Guma Gumisiriza, who was floored in the party’s primaries, refused to concede defeat and is running as independent. If the ruling slashes him, NRM will have higher chances of reclaiming the seat.
Suzan Nakawuki’s luck in Masaka Municipality may have also run out. The Busiro East MP disagreed with her former FDC Party leaders and opted to migrate to Masaka Municipality where she is contesting as an independent candidate. But she is one of the 70 MP stranded after the ruling. The constituency is currently represented by John Kawanga of DP, who is fighting to reclaim the seat. Another contender is NRM flagbearer Kizza Mujoobe.
NRM could lose Serere County. John Emily Otekat, the NRM flag bearer for Serere County and an Independent candidate in the 8th Parliament, is one of the MPs pondering the next move after the ruling.
Since he joined Parliament, he has been working closely with NRM MPs and decided to cross over and contest as its flag bearer. He met little resistance to win the NRM flag but may not enjoy the benefits of carrying it. If he is thrown out he leaves the race for Stephen Ochola of FDC and Joseph Opio of UPC plus other candidates.
In many other constituencies, the trend is likely to be the same as the removal of one candidate from the race increases chances for the opponent.
THE National Resistance Movement (NRM) will be the biggest winner and loser if independent MPs running as party flag bearers for the next elections are disqualified as the Constitution Court recommended.
The Court also ruled that party MPs running as independent candidates be thrown out of Parliament and the election race.
The Electoral Commission has commissioned its legal experts to advise on how to proceed.
At the same time the Speaker of Parliament, Edward Sekandi, has asked the Electoral Commission to furnish him with a list of the affected MPs as he awaits the Supreme Court ruling on the matter next Friday.
Out of 70 MPs likely to be thrown out, 49 are independents who have been nominated as NRM flag bearers and 14 are NRM legislators nominated as independents after losing in the primaries.
Seven are Independent MPs who have been nominated as Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) flag bearers while three are FDC legislators running as independents.
The Social Democratic Party, Uganda People’s Congress and Uganda Federal Alliance would each lose one.
The NRM appears to be losing a big number of flag bearers but in reality it may not be affected as much as smaller political parties, because it has fronted a candidate in every constituency.
In some of the constituencies where its flag bearers are affected by the ruling, NRM has independent candidates inclined to it, who may be elected. Independent candidates inclined to NRM may promote its interests as is the case in the current Parliament. But the Opposition parties do not have so many independents inclined to them, so if they lose flag bearers, they have no candidates to represent their interests.
If the ruling is upheld, the NRM would reap big in the Kampala mayoral race. Opposition-leaning independent candidate Erias Lukwago and Michael Mabikke of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) would be disqualified. These two are the biggest challengers to the NRM flag bearer, Peter Sematimba.
Lukwago was a Democratic Party (DP) member but chose to contest as an independent, ignoring advice from his party to stand on its ticket.
On the other hand, Mabikke was in 2006 elected as an independent MP, but he is now standing as an SDP candidate. If Lukwago and Mabikke are disqualified, Ssematimba would have a much easier race.
NRM may lose some upcountry constituencies in the same way the opposition is likely to lose its grip on Kampala, although a win in the city is considered more vital.
In Otuke, UPC candidate Jacinto Ogwal will be unopposed if Omara Atubo, who is an independent MP but contesting as the NRM flag bearer, is disqualified from the race.
If Mawokota North’s Peter Clever Mutuluza is technically kicked out of the race, the NRM party flag bearer Amelia Kyambadde will spend the remaining days of the campaigns wining and dining with her supporters. There are several other contenders for the seat, but the main battle has been between Kyambadde and Mutuluza. There is a possibility of Mutuluza’s supporters’ giving their support to the other five contenders, but Kyambadde, being strongest contender, is likely to benefit most.
In Bugabula, Kamuli district, the removal of Asuman Kiyingi, the state minister for lands, is likely to favour NRM candidate Henry Kibarya.
Kibarya floored Kiyingi in the primaries but the minister refused to concede defeat and decided to stand as an independent. If the ruling is not executed, the disunity in the NRM camp may still give FDC’s Salaamu Musumba victory.
In West Budama North, NRM-leaning independent Fox Odoi, must be rejoicing, because the ruling technically threw his opponent, William Okecho, outof the race. The two fought bitterly in the primaries, which Okecho won. the petition, which has affected 70 MPs, was filed by George Owor against Okecho and the Attorney General.
In Kyenjonjo district, where tensions have been flared between the Bakiga and Batoro over Mwenge South, the ruling would give David Muhumuza, the NRM flag bearer, victory against Tom Butime, an independent. Muhumuza beat Butime, the incumbent, in the primaries but Batoro elders disregarded his victory, because he is a migrant.
In Arua Municipality, FDC MP Akbar Godi is in real trouble. On trial for the murder of his wife, Godi was at the beginning of the week remanded in Luzira Prison waiting for judgment in the case. The Constitutional Court ruling only deepens his woesalthough it would reduce his rival, FDC’s Amina Atako’s troubles, as she only have NRM candidate, Ajedra Aridru, to face.
Cecelia Ogwal is a lady known for surviving political waves including disagreeing with her UPC colleagues. She also lost her seat in the 7th Parliament but fought and came back as an independent in the current Parliament.
In Parliament, she worked with the FDC team and last year she announced that she had crossed over and today, she is one of the MPs pondering what to do after the ruling. If she is pushed out of the race, she leaves behind Ruth Adupa and Salome Ejang (NRM) and UPC candidates for the Dokolo Woman MP seat. The opposition appears strong in the constituency and NRM must double its efforts in the campaigns to grab the seat.
Margaret Muhanga fought bitterly in the NRM primaries to retain the NRM flag for the Kabarole Woman but she was floored by Victoria Busingye Rusoke. Muhanga decided to run as an independent, citing rigging in the primaries, but the ruling may affect her chances.
In Kibuku County, NRM’s Saleh Kamba must be jubilating. He is facing water state minister Jennifer Namuyangu. During the NRM primaries the two fought a bitter war characterised by full scale violence.
Kamba a retired UPDF soldier finally edged out Namuyangu but she chose to contest as an independent.
In Mukono South, God seems not to have abandoned the Rev. Peter Bakaluba Mukasa, the NRM flag bearer. The cleric withdrew from Mukono North after being defeated by Betty Nambooze and he sought refuge in Mukono South.
But in the new Constituency he went to, he was received with anger by the camp of the current area MP Hajjat Janat Mukwaya, who supported the Mukono Woman MP, Mary Nalugo Sekiziyivu. The two went for the NRM primaries and Bakaluba was nominated as the NRM flag bearer and Nalugo was running is an independent candidate inclined to the party.
The ruling leaves Nalugo’s political career hanging in the balance. The NRM’s chances of winning the seat had reduced because they would have had to share the party’s votes.
In Oyam South County in Oyam District, the ruling would kick out the strongest two of the strongest candidates, Ishaa Otto t and Betty Amongi. Otto is a UPC MP contesting as independent, while Amongi is an independent MP vying as the UPC flag bearer. If they are disqualified, NRM stands a higher chance of grabbing the seat.
In Vurra county, the removal of Simon Ejua would give Dr. Sam Okuonzi hope of beating the UPC, DP and FDC candidates. He beat Ejua in the NRM primaries but the latter did not concede defeat. Ejua is the State Minister for Transport.
There are seven candidates eyeing Ibanda North. NRM, FDC and UFA have each got a candidate. However, for NRM to be able to edge out its opponents, it does not need an independent inclined to it contesting. But Guma Gumisiriza, who was floored in the party’s primaries, refused to concede defeat and is running as independent. If the ruling slashes him, NRM will have higher chances of reclaiming the seat.
Suzan Nakawuki’s luck in Masaka Municipality may have also run out. The Busiro East MP disagreed with her former FDC Party leaders and opted to migrate to Masaka Municipality where she is contesting as an independent candidate. But she is one of the 70 MP stranded after the ruling. The constituency is currently represented by John Kawanga of DP, who is fighting to reclaim the seat. Another contender is NRM flagbearer Kizza Mujoobe.
NRM could lose Serere County. John Emily Otekat, the NRM flag bearer for Serere County and an Independent candidate in the 8th Parliament, is one of the MPs pondering the next move after the ruling.
Since he joined Parliament, he has been working closely with NRM MPs and decided to cross over and contest as its flag bearer. He met little resistance to win the NRM flag but may not enjoy the benefits of carrying it. If he is thrown out he leaves the race for Stephen Ochola of FDC and Joseph Opio of UPC plus other candidates.
In many other constituencies, the trend is likely to be the same as the removal of one candidate from the race increases chances for the opponent.