Donor survey puts Museveni at 65%
Feb 09, 2011
AS the presidential campaigns come to an end, a new opinion poll shows President Yoweri Museveni is still leading with 65% against the other seven presidential candidates in the race.
By Joyce Namutebi
AS the presidential campaigns come to an end, a new opinion poll shows President Yoweri Museveni is still leading with 65% against the other seven presidential candidates in the race.
The other candidates are Dr. Kizza Besigye (FDC), Norbert Mao (DP), Olara Otunnu (UPC), Bidandi Ssali (PPP), Beti Kamya (UFA), Dr. Abed Bwanika (PDP) and Sam Lubega (independent).
The donor-funded Afrobarometer survey, whose findings were released in Kampala yesterday, put Museveni ahead of his bitter rival, Besigye who scored 15%.
The respondents were asked which candidate they would vote for if the presidential elections were held tomorrow.
The firm interviewed 2,000 adults in 250 villages. Most of them were aged 25-35.
Although Museveni’s support was put at 66% in the previous survey conducted in December, the firm yesterday said at that time, the correct figure for Museveni was 64% and had only increased by 1% to 65%.
The survey, which was carried out in January, also showed that Besigye’s support increased by 3% from 12% in December to 15%. Mao’s support went down to 3% from 4%, while that of Otunnu remained at 3%.
Two percent voted Kamya, the only female candidate in the race, compared to 1% who voted her in December. Bidandi, Bwanika and Lubega got 0%.
The Constitution requires just above 50% for a winner. Ten percent of the respondents refused to give responses, 1% would not vote and another 1% did not know who to vote.
The findings of the survey funded by Democracy Deepening Programme were released by the managing director of Wilsken Agencies, Robert Sentamu, at the Imperial Royal Hotel Kampala.
Museveni got 78% majority support from the West followed by the North with 68%, East 63%, and Central 56%.
He scored lowest in Kampala (45%), but was still higher than other candidates.
Besigye’s support in Kampala polled at 19%, East 17%, Central and West with 15% and the North 11%. Mao polled at 8% in Kampala, West with 6%, North and East with 2%. Kamya got 15% from Kampala.
On vote buying, Sentamu said the respondents, who said they had received offers for their vote, increased to 17% from 14%. The majority of offers, he said, were of money.
Respondents indicated that majority of the offers were from NRM (80%) followed by FDC (9%), UPC (1%), while other parties polled less than 1%.
Sentamu disclosed that majority of the respondents said they would take the money, but vote for a candidate of their choice.
The objectives of the survey were to assess public perceptions towards democracy and other issues of national importance and public interest. It also aims at finding out how the issues are faring in the present electoral environment.
In January, 31% believed that the elections would be free and fair with minor problems compared to 30% on December.
The number of people who expect poll violence dropped from 57% in December to 52% in January.
Seventy-two percent believed that security forces are capable of preventing large-scale violence compared to 70% in December, while those who think losers will reject the results had reduced.
The results of the survey compare favorably with four other opinion polls recently conducted by different researchers and published by New Vision.
All the surveys put Museveni in the lead with over 65%, except one conducted before the campaigns started that gave Museveni 52%. Participants were asked to name one presidential candidate of their choice.
A New Vision poll conducted between November 22 and December 23, 2010 involving 10,228 voters, showed that if the elections were held then, Museveni would win by 64.5%, followed by Besigye with 15.6%.
AS the presidential campaigns come to an end, a new opinion poll shows President Yoweri Museveni is still leading with 65% against the other seven presidential candidates in the race.
The other candidates are Dr. Kizza Besigye (FDC), Norbert Mao (DP), Olara Otunnu (UPC), Bidandi Ssali (PPP), Beti Kamya (UFA), Dr. Abed Bwanika (PDP) and Sam Lubega (independent).
The donor-funded Afrobarometer survey, whose findings were released in Kampala yesterday, put Museveni ahead of his bitter rival, Besigye who scored 15%.
The respondents were asked which candidate they would vote for if the presidential elections were held tomorrow.
The firm interviewed 2,000 adults in 250 villages. Most of them were aged 25-35.
Although Museveni’s support was put at 66% in the previous survey conducted in December, the firm yesterday said at that time, the correct figure for Museveni was 64% and had only increased by 1% to 65%.
The survey, which was carried out in January, also showed that Besigye’s support increased by 3% from 12% in December to 15%. Mao’s support went down to 3% from 4%, while that of Otunnu remained at 3%.
Two percent voted Kamya, the only female candidate in the race, compared to 1% who voted her in December. Bidandi, Bwanika and Lubega got 0%.
The Constitution requires just above 50% for a winner. Ten percent of the respondents refused to give responses, 1% would not vote and another 1% did not know who to vote.
The findings of the survey funded by Democracy Deepening Programme were released by the managing director of Wilsken Agencies, Robert Sentamu, at the Imperial Royal Hotel Kampala.
Museveni got 78% majority support from the West followed by the North with 68%, East 63%, and Central 56%.
He scored lowest in Kampala (45%), but was still higher than other candidates.
Besigye’s support in Kampala polled at 19%, East 17%, Central and West with 15% and the North 11%. Mao polled at 8% in Kampala, West with 6%, North and East with 2%. Kamya got 15% from Kampala.
On vote buying, Sentamu said the respondents, who said they had received offers for their vote, increased to 17% from 14%. The majority of offers, he said, were of money.
Respondents indicated that majority of the offers were from NRM (80%) followed by FDC (9%), UPC (1%), while other parties polled less than 1%.
Sentamu disclosed that majority of the respondents said they would take the money, but vote for a candidate of their choice.
The objectives of the survey were to assess public perceptions towards democracy and other issues of national importance and public interest. It also aims at finding out how the issues are faring in the present electoral environment.
In January, 31% believed that the elections would be free and fair with minor problems compared to 30% on December.
The number of people who expect poll violence dropped from 57% in December to 52% in January.
Seventy-two percent believed that security forces are capable of preventing large-scale violence compared to 70% in December, while those who think losers will reject the results had reduced.
The results of the survey compare favorably with four other opinion polls recently conducted by different researchers and published by New Vision.
All the surveys put Museveni in the lead with over 65%, except one conducted before the campaigns started that gave Museveni 52%. Participants were asked to name one presidential candidate of their choice.
A New Vision poll conducted between November 22 and December 23, 2010 involving 10,228 voters, showed that if the elections were held then, Museveni would win by 64.5%, followed by Besigye with 15.6%.