Who will step in Besigye’s shoes?
Feb 25, 2011
THE battle for presidency is over and Dr. Kizza Besigye has lost it the third time. Since the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) constitution does allow Besigye to lead the party for more than two terms, party members are quietly discussing possible replacements.
By Moses Mulondo
THE battle for presidency is over and Dr. Kizza Besigye has lost it the third time. Since the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) constitution does allow Besigye to lead the party for more than two terms, party members are quietly discussing possible replacements.
Technically FDC can still nominate him as flag bearer for an election even if he is not the party president, but some members say after losing three times he should give a chance to another person.
The retired colonel first contested for presidency in 2001 under the Reform Agenda and polled 27% of the vote while Yoweri Museveni won with 69% of the total votes.
Besigye was then put under house arrest over treason charges before he escaped to exile In South Africa.
He came back from South Africa in 2005, and contested for presidency as the flag bearer of the newly created FDC during which he garnered a considerably high portion of 37.3% of the total votes while the incumbent, Museveni, scored 59%. Many thought the FDC strongman had a higher chance of winning the 2011 Presidential elections.
However, recent developments have proved otherwise. The entry of UPC’s Olara Otunnu and DPs Norbert Mao, the return of peace to northern Uganda and reduced FDC interest in Teso, denied Besigye victory in areas where he had previously enjoyed massive support.
Besigye’s poor performance didn’t only shock the leaders of FDC/IPC but also dampened the optimism of the opposition for a possible political change from the NRM. Top FDC leaders who had appealed to Besigye not to contest again after losing in 2006 are now saying ‘we told you’.
Many FDC MPs had backed Gen. Mugisha Muntu to be the party’s presidential flag bearer but the ordinary party officials who are the majority overwhelmingly voted for Besigye.
Well, Besigye’s FDC presidency will soon be history and party members are discussing possible replacements. Among the names being discussed are Mugisha Muntu, Nandala Mafabi, Reagan Okumu, Abdu Katuntu, Salaamu Musumba, Ogenga Latigo and Kassiano Wadri.
Mugisha Muntu
The former army commander, is calm, firm and intelligent. He lost to Besigye twice in the FDC primaries. It is hard to find fault in him. Many say his level of integrity makes him a good candidate for the job. He stood in the primaries and got 16% of the votes against Besigye’s 84%. Even after losing to Besigye, he traversed the country mobilizing support for FDC. Having been in direct contact with key FDC supporters all over the country, he stands a high chance against anyone who might want to stand against him in the 2015 primaries.
Others, however, criticize him for not having the Besigye-style militant approach which they consider necessary for an opposition politician. While some people look at this as a weakness, others see it as a strength. In fact Muntu’s campaign managers in the primaries kept telling party members that his calm and persuasive approach would attract more support for the party. They also argued that the army would find Muntu more acceptable than Besigye if the party won elections.
Asked if he would take up the mantle if party members request him to, Mugisha Muntu said: “At the moment we are pre-occupied by what we need to do immediately concerning the flaws that characterized the just concluded elections. There are still three years for Besigye’s term of leadership to expire. We shall handle that issue at its own time.â€
Latigo/Musumba
Latigo is a respected memeber of FDC and was the leader of the Opposition in Parliament. But he lost in the just concluded Parliamentary elections. Some argue that there is no way Latigo can defeat a man like Museveni if he could not beat Amos Okot, a little-known politician, in the Parliamentary elections.
Like Latigo, Musumba also lost the Parliamentary elections. She was famous for her criticism of the Government in the seventh Parliament. At the time she was one of the strongest opposition legislators. But the fact that she has now lost two consecutive Parliamentary elections could mean that she is no longer popular. Never the less her name has always come up in discussions over who will replace Besigye in FDC.
Joseph Mulwanyamuli
Meanwhile, former Buganda premier Joseph Mulwanyammuli, the leader of Suubi, a pro-Mengo pressure group, is also being considered to lead FDC. Suubi actively campaigned for Besigye in Buganda and some say, without Suubi, besigye would have scored less than the 26% he got. Indeed Besigye performed better in Buganda than in any other region. He scored 31.7% in central, 28% in the north, 26% in the east and 18% in the western region. In addition, all active members of Ssuubi who participated in the Parliamentary race, emerged winners.
Nandala Mafabi
The other person in whom FDC members have a lot of hope in is Budadiri West MP Nandala Mafabi who is also the leader of Bugisu Cooperative Union and the chairperson of the Parliamentary Public Accounts Committee (PAC). As chairperson of PAC, Mafabi has gained popularity and credibility by unreservedly exposing and fighting corrupt government officials. Already, some FDC leaders like Wafula Oguttu want Mafabi to be the next leader of the opposition after Ogenga Latigo lost Agago Constituency seat to NRM’s John Amos Okot.
Abdu Katutntu
The other politician being discussed in the FDC succession race is the Bugweri County MP Abdu Katuntu who has twice defeated internal affairs minister Kirunda Kivejinja. Katuntu, who after trouncing Kivejinja called himself ‘the lion of Bugweri’.
A lawyer by profession, Katuntu is among those who had declared intention to stand for FDC presidency but later stepped down. Instead he stood for party chairmanship but he was defeated by Sam Njuba whom Besigye convinced to go for the position to appeal to voters from the central region.
Whoever becomes the next FDC leader will have an uphill task to make his party strong enough to beat NRM. At the moment FDC is a lot weaker than NRM. Whereas NRM is sending 279 MPs to the 9th Parliament, FDC is sending only 34. Moreover, this is a decline from 38 in the 8th Parliament. On the contrary the number of DP legislators has increased to 12 from nine in the eight Parliament.
THE battle for presidency is over and Dr. Kizza Besigye has lost it the third time. Since the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) constitution does allow Besigye to lead the party for more than two terms, party members are quietly discussing possible replacements.
Technically FDC can still nominate him as flag bearer for an election even if he is not the party president, but some members say after losing three times he should give a chance to another person.
The retired colonel first contested for presidency in 2001 under the Reform Agenda and polled 27% of the vote while Yoweri Museveni won with 69% of the total votes.
Besigye was then put under house arrest over treason charges before he escaped to exile In South Africa.
He came back from South Africa in 2005, and contested for presidency as the flag bearer of the newly created FDC during which he garnered a considerably high portion of 37.3% of the total votes while the incumbent, Museveni, scored 59%. Many thought the FDC strongman had a higher chance of winning the 2011 Presidential elections.
However, recent developments have proved otherwise. The entry of UPC’s Olara Otunnu and DPs Norbert Mao, the return of peace to northern Uganda and reduced FDC interest in Teso, denied Besigye victory in areas where he had previously enjoyed massive support.
Besigye’s poor performance didn’t only shock the leaders of FDC/IPC but also dampened the optimism of the opposition for a possible political change from the NRM. Top FDC leaders who had appealed to Besigye not to contest again after losing in 2006 are now saying ‘we told you’.
Many FDC MPs had backed Gen. Mugisha Muntu to be the party’s presidential flag bearer but the ordinary party officials who are the majority overwhelmingly voted for Besigye.
Well, Besigye’s FDC presidency will soon be history and party members are discussing possible replacements. Among the names being discussed are Mugisha Muntu, Nandala Mafabi, Reagan Okumu, Abdu Katuntu, Salaamu Musumba, Ogenga Latigo and Kassiano Wadri.
Mugisha Muntu
The former army commander, is calm, firm and intelligent. He lost to Besigye twice in the FDC primaries. It is hard to find fault in him. Many say his level of integrity makes him a good candidate for the job. He stood in the primaries and got 16% of the votes against Besigye’s 84%. Even after losing to Besigye, he traversed the country mobilizing support for FDC. Having been in direct contact with key FDC supporters all over the country, he stands a high chance against anyone who might want to stand against him in the 2015 primaries.
Others, however, criticize him for not having the Besigye-style militant approach which they consider necessary for an opposition politician. While some people look at this as a weakness, others see it as a strength. In fact Muntu’s campaign managers in the primaries kept telling party members that his calm and persuasive approach would attract more support for the party. They also argued that the army would find Muntu more acceptable than Besigye if the party won elections.
Asked if he would take up the mantle if party members request him to, Mugisha Muntu said: “At the moment we are pre-occupied by what we need to do immediately concerning the flaws that characterized the just concluded elections. There are still three years for Besigye’s term of leadership to expire. We shall handle that issue at its own time.â€
Latigo/Musumba
Latigo is a respected memeber of FDC and was the leader of the Opposition in Parliament. But he lost in the just concluded Parliamentary elections. Some argue that there is no way Latigo can defeat a man like Museveni if he could not beat Amos Okot, a little-known politician, in the Parliamentary elections.
Like Latigo, Musumba also lost the Parliamentary elections. She was famous for her criticism of the Government in the seventh Parliament. At the time she was one of the strongest opposition legislators. But the fact that she has now lost two consecutive Parliamentary elections could mean that she is no longer popular. Never the less her name has always come up in discussions over who will replace Besigye in FDC.
Joseph Mulwanyamuli
Meanwhile, former Buganda premier Joseph Mulwanyammuli, the leader of Suubi, a pro-Mengo pressure group, is also being considered to lead FDC. Suubi actively campaigned for Besigye in Buganda and some say, without Suubi, besigye would have scored less than the 26% he got. Indeed Besigye performed better in Buganda than in any other region. He scored 31.7% in central, 28% in the north, 26% in the east and 18% in the western region. In addition, all active members of Ssuubi who participated in the Parliamentary race, emerged winners.
Nandala Mafabi
The other person in whom FDC members have a lot of hope in is Budadiri West MP Nandala Mafabi who is also the leader of Bugisu Cooperative Union and the chairperson of the Parliamentary Public Accounts Committee (PAC). As chairperson of PAC, Mafabi has gained popularity and credibility by unreservedly exposing and fighting corrupt government officials. Already, some FDC leaders like Wafula Oguttu want Mafabi to be the next leader of the opposition after Ogenga Latigo lost Agago Constituency seat to NRM’s John Amos Okot.
Abdu Katutntu
The other politician being discussed in the FDC succession race is the Bugweri County MP Abdu Katuntu who has twice defeated internal affairs minister Kirunda Kivejinja. Katuntu, who after trouncing Kivejinja called himself ‘the lion of Bugweri’.
A lawyer by profession, Katuntu is among those who had declared intention to stand for FDC presidency but later stepped down. Instead he stood for party chairmanship but he was defeated by Sam Njuba whom Besigye convinced to go for the position to appeal to voters from the central region.
Whoever becomes the next FDC leader will have an uphill task to make his party strong enough to beat NRM. At the moment FDC is a lot weaker than NRM. Whereas NRM is sending 279 MPs to the 9th Parliament, FDC is sending only 34. Moreover, this is a decline from 38 in the 8th Parliament. On the contrary the number of DP legislators has increased to 12 from nine in the eight Parliament.