Motive for demos is not high prices

Apr 18, 2011

LAST week the city was disturbed by the so called Walk-to-Work campaign by the opposition ostensibly in protest against hiking prices. In reality Besigye having lost in the presidential elections still thinks that he can capture power this time by a mass uprising.

Moses Byaruhanga

LAST week the city was disturbed by the so called Walk-to-Work campaign by the opposition ostensibly in protest against hiking prices. In reality Besigye having lost in the presidential elections still thinks that he can capture power this time by a mass uprising.

Besigye polled about 2 million votes in the last elections against President Museveni’s 5 million. Besigye thinks that he can mobilise his supporters to come to town and result into what happened in both Egypt and Tunisia. Supposing the Movement supporters also came to the streets to counter the Besigye move?

If Besigye has 2 million supporters what about President Museveni who has 5 million? Some people are cursing the Police for stopping Besigye’s to walk to Kampala. If it were only a normal walking, that would not be a problem.

But as pointed out above, Besigye strategy is walk to Kampala from different directions, first that would cause commotion on all the roads leading to the city hence disrupt other road users.

Secondly, the strategy is that when all of them reach town, they converge at Constitutional Square and then don’t go back and they are joined by more people to cause commotion in the city. Such gatherings have in the past resulted into looting, loss of lives like the Mabira demonstration.

The Police cannot simply let people walk to town with sinister motives of causing chaos in the city in the name of demonstration.

In other countries, if people are dissatisfied with a policy of government or any other issue, they hold placards at some point and express their concerns. But for one group to come from Kasangati, another from Rubaga, another from Jinja road, another from Bugolobi and all other roads, that calls for concern from the Police.

Some information indicates that the Besigye group wants some of their people killed so that they can arouse sympathy. At some stage in their planning last week after the Thursday incidents, it was gathered that some voices wanted use of more violent means, but others cautioned that they will lose sympathy.

But as you know they have been throwing stones at the Police and barricading roads which is violent and disrupting other road users.

So the motive is not about high prices. Ugandans should rally behind the Government and denounce the Besigye group which is sabotaging the economy. Last week the traders and vendors at Kalerwe market never worked. Many people feared to come to town for fear of demonstrators looting their property. If Besigye’s is a popular cause, why would anyone fear to come to town when Besigye is demonstrating? One local businessman told me last week that on the day of demonstrations he feared to bring his goods to town for fear of looting as he had lost a lot of merchandise in similar demonstrations before.

Traders who supply food and other items to the various markets too, feared to come to town. As a consequence, the prices of the little food that was already in the markets went up. Is Besigye really demonstrating as a result of hiking prices while his actions are leading to a further hike in prices?

On the other hand if Besigye is concerned about the unemployed youth, his actions are exacerbating the situation. We all know (I assume) that jobs come from investments. If Besigye is on the streets every week, that is not good for investors.

Even the local investors do not want disruption of their businesses. The Government, therefore, will have no choice other than to protect the economic interest of the country by creating stability that Besigye is attempting to disorganise. He will not be allowed to cause more chaos in the city to disrupt peace and businesses.

In future, Ugandans should agree on how to deal with those whose actions sabotage the economy. All roads will be secured to ensure flow of goods and services into and out of the city and other towns as well.

On the question of prices, let me start with fuel prices. In the last one year from April 2010, the price of a barrel of oil has jumped from $81.96 to the current $120, an increase of 46%.

In Uganda the price of petrol in the same period has risen from sh2,900 to sh3,500 an increase of 20%. Looking at other countries in the region, the price of petrol in Kenya is around the same as in Uganda. In Rwanda petrol is at an equivalent of sh4,000. A friend of mine in the US told me last week that the price of a litre of petrol is around sh3,400 (a gallon is at $5).

In Uganda, daily consumption of major petroleum products is as follows; diesel, 2 million litres, petrol 1 million litres, kerosene, 30,000 litres, Jet fuel, 40,000 litres and heavy oil for thermal power, 5,000 litres. Our annual import bill of petroleum products is now in the range of $500m or sh1.1 trillion.

Those who have been arguing that if we had fuel reserves the high prices would be arrested simply do not know what they are talking about. They are saying that subsidise fuel. So out of the sh1.1 trillion, by how much should government subsidise? (The 1.1 trillion is before taxes). Fuel reserves can be of help if there is a supply constraint leading to a hike in prices due to scarcity.

Nonetheless, under the law, oil companies are supposed to keep a reserve that can last for 10 days. For now there is no scarcity. There is steady supply only that the price is high. So the question of reserves does not arise.

Critics are saying that the Government should keep reserves. If the price of oil on the international market has been going up for the last one year, how much could any reserve have helped the situation? How come other governments are not using reserves to bring down pump prices? Can any country sustain subsidising oil products?

On food prices, the other day the World Bank president announced that world food prices have risen by 36% in the last one year. This is good for the farmers.

In her article, in New Vision, last Saturday, Janet Museveni reminded Besigye that in his campaigns he promised farmers high prices for their products. Now Besigye who “loves” farmers is demonstrating against high food prices. Oh what a contradiction.

As a matter of fact high food prices are good for farmers although they may hurt urban consumers. Besigye should be mobilising farmers to take advantage of the rains to benefit from rising world food prices.

Last week colleagues and I met one of the exporters of vegetables to Europe. He told us that out of a demand he has for 50 tons per week he can only export 9 tons.

We are now going to help his outgrowers plant more and take advantage of that market and at the same time work through NAADS to increase production country wide. We need to start fertiliser application and look at irrigation to benefit from a hungry world.

The author is Senior presidential advisor on Political Affairs

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