Besigye politically shirtless

  By Ofwono Opondo

POLITICALLY as an opposition leader, one would say “Born in September 1999, Died in December 2011,” and is yet to be buried sometime in the future.

Col. (rtd) Dr Warren Smith Kizza Besigye Kifefe has announced he will retire “soon,” from the presidency of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC).

And almost immediately his propaganda sidekick Pilipo Wafula Oguttu, MP Bukholi Central quickly weighed in to assure supporters that Besigye’s stepping down ‘does not preclude him from being the FDC presidential candidate in 20016,’ and that causes hilarious laughter. It was an attempt to tell supporters to stay put and not migrate to other parties.

And it also seems that opposition politics is getting nastier considering the firings in the UPC by Olara Otuunu of such fliers as David Pulkol, Edward Rurangaranga, and Robert Kanusu making it very un-attractive for any reasonable person to join the Congress Everywhere-Nyamurunga.

Apparently Oguttu’s futile effort was to re-assure FDC supporters skeptical of the future of their party without its very abrasive founder president Besigye. In fact pundits believe that Wafula’s own future in the FDC as it spokesperson could be short-lived without Besigye at the helm.

Besigye is right to ‘retire’ from FDC and opposition leadership because he has been roundly and soundly defeated many times ever since he stepped in those shoes. During the 2001 election, Besigye and his Reform Agenda managed a paltry 27%, and much lower at parliamentary and local council elections to make serious impact on the national scene.

But in 2006, courtesy of the Government and NRM’s own mistakes, especially his arrest, brought huge public mistrust on Yoweri Museveni then seen as witch-hunting, harassing and not willing to play fair, since he used the state security apparatus against him. That harassment brought huge electoral benefits to Besigye which gave him 37%, but without a corresponding level in parliament and local councils thus keeping FDC a minority opposition party to effect any meaningful democratic challenge to NRM.

That electoral frustration led FDC and Besigye in particular, to extremely desperate measures like fighting nearly every state institution, which he saw as obstruction to his misguided quest to be Uganda’s president.

As Besigye spent most of his energy, time, and resources on the above, using foreign political interests, he and FDC had little mapping, profiling, marking and targeting NRM’s key constituencies for electoral victory.

As a result, Besigye ranted with implausible policy option leaving the field and his backyard in Teso and Acholi wide open to NRM political machinery, which reduced Besigye’s performance to 26% and FDC failure to field credible parliamentary candidates in half of the available seats.

The net result of that failure was that in the last general elections, NRM knocked out 10 FDC MPs including the former leader of opposition in Parliament, Prof. Morris Ogenga Latigo and again keeping out FDC vice president Salaamu Musumba, secretary for research Augustine Ruzindana and Maj. John Kazoora from the ninth Parliament, for which NRM is grateful to the voters across the country.

And so, Besigye’s resignation from FDC is more like an aggressive hunter running away serial misfortunes and daunting efforts. Besigye in now politically shirtless and no amount of political and media posturing can resuscitate him.

Pundits need to know that although he is the leader of FDC in the country, Besigye has neither firm control nor guidance of FDC MPs and district local council leaders, and as such he is a lame duck. Just look at similar leaders in the past, Ben Kiwanuka, Paulo Ssemogerere, Mayanja Nkangi, Ssebaana Kizito, Milton and Miria Obote.

It is mainly for this reason that when he vowed he would tally and announce his own results and perhaps victory, he shied away when it downed on him that it would be an exercise in futility since his own purported tally had given him zero chance of victory.

In the aftermath of which he went to try his political luck with the yet again misguided “walk-to-work,” riotous demonstrations, which did not garner much support from across Uganda except hoodlums, who terrorised law abiding citizens.

That has left Besigye’s ambitious political project and himself dead in the water and hence the resignation. Now, Besigye the turn-coat messiah from NRM had promised in 2000 great reforms to topple NRM before 2006 and then the tsunami by 2011 during which he had said he would not participate in elections and so really his words should not be trusted.