Why Nkurunziza's withdrawal from next elections doesn't guarantee stability in Burundi

By Dr Charles Kiiza

Burundi plunged into a political crisis in 2015 after President Pierre Nkurunziza sought a third term in office, which his opponents claimed was unconstitutional. Although, according to sources, Nkurunziza championed a referendum to change Burundi's Constitution to enable him run for the 2020 presidential elections, on a number of occasions, he has been heard saying that he was not going to run for president in the forthcoming elections.

In a sense, this lowers the ‘political tensions' and has the effect of building some confidence in the return of stability both in people inside or outside the country. However, the pertinent question is, does Nkurunziza's absence from the 2020 presidential ballot guarantee peace and stability in Burundi?

Although Nkurunziza has been largely seen as the stumbling block to the efforts aimed at resolving Burundi's political crisis, according to credible sources in Burundi, three power centres; one headed by President Nkurunziza, another by the chief of the armed forces and the other headed by the Minister of Security, who is also charged with national Police, are responsible. Sources argue that the three power centers are not accountable to each other; each does whatsoever seems fit to them including committing atrocities against Burundians with impunity. Until such power dynamics at play within the ruling party are addressed, it is difficult, if not impossible, to find the good will necessary to engage positively with the opposition in the Diaspora. This largely explains why efforts by EAC under the facilitation of former President Benjamin Mkapa to bring the Burundi government into dialogue with the opposition in the Diaspora have continued to experience a deadlock.

Moreover, whether or not Nkurunziza stands in the 2020 elections in as long as the ruling party CNDD-FDD retains power, the status quo is likely to prevail or even the situation may likely go from bad to worse. This argument is partly premised on the fact that the controversial 2018 Constitution was a culmination of a controversial and unpopular referendum that was organised under undemocratic circumstances.

While the Arusha Peace Agreement for Burundi had insulated Burundi against violent ethnic conflict, especially between the Hutus and Tutsis by providing for proportional power sharing, the new controversial Constitution of Burundi provides for a review of this guarantee in five years. This poses a great danger over a society whose political sensibilities are still fresh and whose democratic credentials are at a minimum. Therefore, unless a new government is formed and reverses Burundi's constitutional order, the country's stability is far away in sight in as long as the status quo is maintained in the 2020 elections.

The UN investigators have warned that crimes against humanity and other serious rights violations were continuing unabated in Burundi. With such seeds of violence sown in the Burundians and in the event that the guarantee for ethnic stability between the Hutus and Tutsis alluded to above is scraped from the 2018 Burundi Constitution, the country will most probably return to a full-blown civil war.

What then should the international community do in the face of such challenges? Mediators in Burundi's political conflict ought not to tire of searching for a workable solution to address Burundi's political crisis. Any meaningful effort to bring Burundi's warring parties to a negotiating table or into dialogue has to begin with reconciling the factions within the ruling party. It is after when this is done that there will be a unified position by the major players in Burundi's political spectrum, which is necessary to lay a soft ground for meaningful negotiations with the opposition in the Diaspora.          

The writer is an international relations expert on conflict in Burundi and a Senior Lecturer at Kampala International University.