How Al-Shabaab can be defeated

Jun 17, 2012

MILITARY strategists will tell you the criteria for victory in counter terrorism operations are manifold. In no particular order, the benchmarks could include the loss of people’s support

By Paddy Ankunda

IS this the end for the Al Shabaab terrorists in Somalia?” Following the capture the strategic towns of Afgooye, 30km west of Mogadishu and Afmadow in the south of the country?

This seemed to be the question lurking behind the usual and unceasing phone calls from those interested in these developments. To their surprise, my answer was always an emphatic “No!”

The rush to declare victory, while a source of encouragement to some, can also be deeply misleading.

Military strategists will tell you the criteria for victory in counter terrorism operations are manifold. In no particular order, the benchmarks could include the loss of people’s support, degradation of the enemy’s capabilities to make war, loss of force cohesion and the will to fight, loss of strategic territory and of course, loss of fighters in the overall conflict environment.

True, the Al Shabaab have suffered losses on most of these grounds, but their ultimate defeat will depend on the ability of the Somali leaders to exploit the military successes to deliver an inclusive political reconciliation process cemented by an economic order, which secures the fruits of liberation for all.

Recent history gives good reason for hope. Barely a month after the defeat of Al Shabaab in Mogadishu, representatives of most of the various competing Somali political factions came together in the city and agreed on a road map to ending the transition process.

Principles governing the reform of Parliament and the adoption of a provisional constitution have also been agreed at follow-up conferences in Galkayo, The process has been expanded to include much of Somali civil society.

Somali clan elders are meeting in Mogadishu to select the members of a National Constituent Assembly which will debate and adopt the provisional constitution, as well as the members of a much-reduced Federal Parliament who will elect a new President by August 20.

As the process unfolds, the Somali people will need to develop and entrench state institutions that can protect civilians and deliver on social services. They will also demand a leadership that derives its legitimacy through the ballot.

During his meeting with Somali leaders in Istanbul conference in Turkey, President Yoweri Museveni cautioned that Uganda’s involvement in Somalia was meant to show solidarity with the people of Somalia and to support the process so they regain their sovereign rights.

He added that it is through elections that leaders will know what their people want. By this he meant that no system or leadership can be legitimate without the explicit endorsement of the people.

While the security situation does not allow for general election to be held at the moment, it is gratifying to note that the political process is indeed moving in that direction. As security across the country is improved, we hope to see the peace process expanded to include those in areas formerly controlled by Al Shabaab.

Fortunately, among both the Somali people and much of the international community, there seems to be consensus that the Somali conflict has reached a point where military objectives must get properly integrated into an overall political strategy.

While the Al Shabaab are fighting a losing battle, defeating terrorism will be a tall order if the Transitional Government does not show cohesion and unity at this critical moment.

Resources should be committed to invest in rebuilding state institutions that can deliver human rights and services. 

Further, investment in rebuilding Somalia’s dilapidated infrastructure as well as support for the many small businesses being reestablished will help kick-start the national economy, providing jobs and income opportunity to the millions of youth on whose desperation the Al Shabaab preys.

Terrorism can be defeated, when governments invest in people-centred welfare projects that make them feel their vote is of value. In the end, there can be no replacement for development. A people who feel their government is not doing enough to get them out of poverty will always succumb to manipulation.

Therefore, while it is true that the Al Shabaab are losing the battles, the non -conventional war is going to take not only the military genius, but a conscious strategy of political revitalisation, reconstruction and national reconciliation.

The rest will fall in place.

The writer is the AU spokesperson in Somalia

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