Is Kony up to more political tricks in Gulu?

A walk through Gulu town tells it all: Most people are now optimistic, if also a bit skeptic. Still, these residents are giving it the benefit of the doubt. Denis Ocwich reflects on the bumpy road the peace process is taking..

WITH the latest trend of events this stand off between government troops and Joseph Kony’s Lord Resistance Army (LRA) may turn out to be the same old “hide-and-seek” game. Or could one say that the 17-year-old guerrilla war in Northern Uganda is finally on its way out?

At least many people believe the latest announcement of a ceasefire by Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), leader, Joseph Kony is a signal that he is bowing towards round-table negotiation. The hopes are boosted by the fact that the government peace team, including Lt. Gen. Salim Saleh, has thrown its full weight behind Acholi religious and cultural leaders to hold talks with the rebels.

“These people (rebels) have now come out openly to have dialogue with government,” said retired Anglican Bishop of Kitgum Diocese, MacLeod Baker Ochola.

For the past few months or so, Bishop Ochola and Fr. Carlos Rodriquez have been part of the network of Acholi religious and cultural leaders trying to link the rebels with government. Father Carlos is said to be the main linkman daringly combing the bushes to meet the rebels.

But then, mistrust and suspicion is costing the north peace. “We appeal to both sides to be sincere and avoid mistrust,” urged Bishop Ochola. Gulu District Chairman, Lt. Col. Walter Ochora said: “We totally accept the gesture from Kony for peace and ceasefire.” But like other people, Ochora still doubts the willingness of Kony.

Last week, the Acholi leaders were joined by Salim Saleh and some local MPs to meet rebel leaders. But they failed because none of the rebel commanders turned up in the agreed location. Could that be testimony that the rebels are as well just playing tricks? This is what many are asking.

On Saturday, Museveni resounded his long-held military solution to the northern question. He however said if Kony was willing to have dialogue, he was free to contact the Acholi religious and cultural leaders, or the government peace team chaired by Deputy Premier, Eriya Kategaya.

In a one-and-half-hour militaristic speech, Museveni described Kony as “a terrorist and a super criminal” who could be fooling people that he wants dialogue.

“Kony can deceive other people but not me, because I know everything about that group,” he said. “I hear some people say how can we forgive a criminal like Kony who has killed many people? This is nonsense,” added a tough-speaking Museveni, leaving a damn silence among the crowd.

However, some people believe that the President may tone down his hard line stance if Kony stops killing people.

“We are still very optimistic because we know that the President is really committed to solving this conflict by using all stake-holders including Acholi religious leaders,” said Bishop Ochola. He cited enactment of the Amnesty Law and appointment of the Presidential peace team as positive steps by the government.

The bishop, however, pointed fingers at Uganda Peoples Defence Forces (UPDF) commanders for violating Kony’s ceasefire. But those who know the rules of the game say the army is right to keep on alert.

“As soldiers, we operate using command. So long as the Commander-in-Chief has not yet said ceasefire, then the soldier must continue (fighting),” said Walter Ochora.

Museveni put it clearly: “How do you declare a unilateral ceasefire? It should be discussed so that we have an agreed ceasefire, not a unilateral ceasefire.”

Other people instead blame Kony for not being serious towards peace.

“We are yet to see the commitment of the LRA,” said Ochora.

This is based on the fact that the rebel leader has never put in place his negotiating team. And yet the government did so six months ago by naming the Kategaya peace team.

Besides, two years ago the government appointed the Amnesty Commission to help receive and reintegrate rebels who come out of the bush. Optimists had thought that was a “soft-landing” for the rebels. But, unfortunately, few of the fighters have ever taken advantage of that forgiveness.

“It is only Kony who has been a roadblock, otherwise we can even end this war in one day if Kony gives up,” said Gulu-based Amnesty Commissioner, Mary Oker. She was part of the Betty Bigombe team that negotiated the 1994 botched peace talks.

She said Kony changes his character like ex-dictator Idi Amin. “So it is very difficult to predict if the ceasefire is genuine.”

Allegations are also floating that some local leaders and a handful of Acholi sons and daughters in Diaspora were still riding on the back of Kony.

The Deputy RDC, Semei Okwir said: “There are people who may be having personal interests, definitely they may not want the war to end.”

At the Women’s Day function, Museveni landed a heavy punch on some local leaders for giving solace to Kony. This, he said, was confusing people and encouraging the rebels to keep fighting. “I really must condemn this type of leadership.”

Basing on testimonies by rebels who either surrender or abducted children rescued by the UPDF, Oker said most of the rank and file of the LRA were willing to lay down their arms. But the hardcore top commanders were a hard nut to crack.

There are reasons advanced for the LRA’s unwillingness to stop fighting. First is that the rebels have committed a lot of atrocities, so they fear revenge from the community, and prosecution by the state.

Second, some of them no longer have any homes to fall back to. So the only means of survival now is in barrel of the gun.

“Unless the government addresses these critical concerns, it will be very difficult for us to achieve peace,” said one analyst.

But Museveni insists some of the concerns are addressed by the Amnesty Act 2000, which gives privileges — including immunity from prosecution — to fighters who voluntarily hand in themselves. “I signed the Amnesty Act. But to say on top of that we should be begging Kony is not acceptable to me.”

It is a well-known fact that Kony and his deputies, Vincent Otti and Tabuley are shrewd and rigid commanders who would not let out their secrets to anybody, even their fighters.

But Gulu Municipality MP and chairman of Acholi Parliamentary Group (APG), Norbert Mao believes that the LRA was getting a lot more serious towards clinching a piece deal with government. So far, Kony has called Mao on his phone twice — last week and last year — and discussed with his fears and demands.

“For us in the APG, we are convinced that it is now possible to hold meaningful peace talks with the LRA and we will do everything to make sure the process is constructive,” Mao said, adding that any more attacks carried out by the rebels were unfortunate because they undermine the confidence.

Since Kony verbally announced the unilateral ceasefire on March 1, his forces have mounted several attacks, and killed many people in Gulu, Pader, Kitgum and Lira. And skeptics have been quick to cite these acts as testimony of Kony’s reluctance to peace.

But Acholi MPs who are part of the government peace team believe that the attacks must not be outrightly condemned. This is as long as the rebels were just looking for food.

At the same time there are also those who suspect the attacks are being blamed on the rebels and yet the crimes are being perpetuated by a group called “Boo Kec”. These thugs often operate under the cover of rebels.

“We can’t be sure these are rebels,” said Ochola.

As Santa Okot, the Woman MP for Pader put it, “the attacks could be expected because the LRA are split in very smaller groups (of between 5 — 10 people each), so its very difficult for them to communicate to each other to halt operation. And they need food from wananchi (local people), so the attacks are inevitable.

“We are optimistic that the rebels are now serious,” Okot said, adding that they were about to meet the President and come out with a standpoint on the ceasefire and peace talks.

On why the LRA has never named their peace team, Minister Henry Oryem Okello argued that a lot of factors have to be considered, including the informality of the LRA command structure.

“The LRA is not a modern army. We are prepared to talk to anybody (whether they are top commanders or not).”

The other pertinent factor to be considered is the relocation of the rebels. President Museveni has proposed that the LRA assemble in Owinykibul or Panyikara in Southern Sudan before any talks can proceed. But the rebels are reluctant to assemble in one particular place for fear that the government troops can easily round them up.

But Oryem assured that if the rebels assemble at one place, it would be easy for the government to provide them with food, water, medicine and other necessities - as negotiations get underway.

In the meantime, the government has also tried to contact some international observers to mediate the process and monitor which party is violating the terms.

Museveni last week named some of international organisations as the US-based Carter Centre and Italian St. Egidio. A number of other Non Governmental Organisations (NGOs), European Union, UN agencies and foreign governments are also willing to help in resolving the insurgency.

For now everyone is only guessing what will come out of the latest developments, if at all both sides are committed to peaceful settlement. About the rebels, Oryem said, “We want to give them the benefit of doubt. After two weeks, we will be sure whether the LRA is serious or not.”

Otherwise, eventually the ceasefire gimmick will only end up being a trick to achieve a different ends.