Opposition should start planning

Jun 03, 2003

IN spite of his statement to the contrary, Vice-President Prof. Gilbert Bukenya is now the frontrunner among the likely successors to President Yoweri Museveni

Mid-week Opinion with John Kakande

IN spite of his statement to the contrary, Vice-President Prof. Gilbert Bukenya is now the frontrunner among the likely successors to President Yoweri Museveni.

Museveni has chosen to leave everybody guessing about his 2006 plan. While he has not stated that he will step down in 2006, his decision to appoint Bukenya as VP is the first clear indication that he may be contemplating retirement.

As early as the 2001 presidential elections, rumours were rife in the corridors of power that Museveni wanted a person from Buganda and a Catholic to succeed him. Two names were mentioned as frontrunners: Prof. Gilbert Bukenya and Prof. Ssemakula Kiwanuka. But Kiwanuka suffered a setback when he was trounced in the 2001 parliamentary elections.

Bukenya was appointed minister for the presidency and reportedly made to undergo military training. Kiwanuka’s appointment as junior minister for Luweero Triangle, however, means he should not completely be written off.

The opposition needs to closely study Museveni’s 2006 strategy to avoid being Outmanoeuvred again. The Cabinet reshuffle has given some signals. Museveni’s main focus is to erode the opposition’s support in Buganda, West Nile and the east, while consolidating the Movement’s firm hold on the west.

This is the time for the opposition to start planning on how to wrestle the presidency and the legislature from the Movement.

The opposition should avoid being bogged down with trivialities and get to serious planning.

If the opposition hopes to take power in 2006, it must form a coalition to field a joint presidential candidate.

The opposition also needs to tactfully woo the Movement dissidents. Unlike the Movement, the opposition lacks resou-rces and does not have a countrywide network.

It would be wishful thinking for any one party to imagine, as the Uganda Young Democrats are arguing, that it can single-handedly dislodge the Movement from power. None has the necessary resources and a countrywide network.

Besides, the opposition has to identify a viable candidate preferably from the central region.

So far two people, namely, former presidential aspirant Hajji Nasser Sebaggala and Gulu Municipality MP Nobert Mao, have declared that they will vie for the presidency.

Neither Mao nor Sebaggala is a viable candidate. Mao’s problem stems from fact that he comes from the north. Any presidential candidate either from the north or Uganda People’s Congress would be a vote loser in the south.

While Sebaggala has some following, his credibility and competency remain in question. The opposition would not accept him as the joint candidate, even if the Democratic Party floated him.

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