Fears grow of renewed conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray

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Infighting between rival factions in the northern Ethiopian region of Tigray has raised the spectre of a fresh war between Ethiopia and neighbouring Eritrea, analysts and residents said Thursday.

The region's embattled administrator has appealed for help from the federal government as a rival faction has challenged his power and international embassies called for "urgent dialogue" to de-escalate tensions.

Tigray was the scene of one of the most devastating wars of the century between 2020 and 2022, having claimed as many as 600,000 lives, according to some estimates.

It pitted local forces against the federal government, allied militias and Eritrean soldiers.

Despite a November 2022 peace agreement, the region has not found stability.

Disputes between rival factions have intensified recently, with deteriorating relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia coming soon after the deal.

The federal government appointed veteran Tigray politician Getachew Reda as head of an interim regional administration.

But he has been challenged by his former ally, the leader of the Tigray People's Liberation Front, Debretsion Gebremichael.

On Tuesday, forces loyal to Debrietson took control of Adigrat, Tigray's second-largest city.

"The town is under renewed tension, the population fears a return to the bad old days of the war," one local resident told AFP on condition of anonymity.

'Close' to new conflict

Getachew ordered the suspension of three generals of the Tigray Defence Forces, accusing the rival faction of trying to "take over the whole of Tigray" in an interview with Tigrai Mass Media Agency.

There is growing fear that Ethiopia's neighbour and historic rival, Eritrea, may take advantage of the situation to launch an invasion.

"We have been close to a new conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia for the past two years," Kjetil Tronvoll, Oslo University professor specialising in the region, told AFP.

"We just do not know what will be the triggering factor."

Afwerki's dissatisfaction with the 2022 peace agreement, Abiy's ambitions for a Red Sea port, and geopolitical interest from the Middle East have all played into the deteriorating tensions, he argued.

A damaged tank stands on a road north of Mekele, the capital of Tigray on February 26, 2021. Infighting between rival factions in the northern Ethiopian region of Tigray has raised the spectre of a fresh war between Ethiopia and neighbouring Eritrea, analysts and residents said on March 13, 2025.

That has left the "two countries inching closer to a new war", he added.

"The situation in Tigray can be the triggering factor."

Rising tension

Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have seen extreme highs and lows since the latter's independence in 1993.

A bloody two-year war pitted the countries against each other over territorial disputes, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths between 1998 and 2000.

Abiy was lauded, including winning the Nobel Peace Prize, for finally reaching a peace agreement with Eritrea when he came to power in 2018.

It briefly allowed borders to reopen to the isolated country, which Afeworki has ruled virtually unchallenged since 1993.

However, relations have strained since the end of the Tigray war in 2022.

Eritrea claimed in February that Ethiopia was waging an "intense campaign" against it.

"A war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could break out at any moment," said General Tsadkan Gebretensae, senior strategist for the Tigray forces in Getachew's administration, in remarks published earlier this week.

'Ongoing clashes'

A group of Western embassies, including the United States, Britain, Japan and the European Union issued a statement saying there must be "no return to violence".

"We strongly urge all parties to protect the (2022) Agreement by de-escalating and engaging in urgent dialogue," they said in a post on the US embassy X account.

France earlier called on its nationals in Tigray to "stock up on emergency supplies (food, water, medicine, and possibly fuel) and to exercise utmost caution."

"Given the ongoing internal clashes in Tigray, particularly in Adigrat and in the regional capital, Mekele, all travel throughout the Tigray region is now formally discouraged," its foreign ministry said.

Getachew's administration asked the Ethiopian government on Wednesday to "provide necessary assistance", though he told reporters that the assistance he had requested was not military.

Federal authorities in the capital Addis Ababa have not yet commented.