Experts warn Sudan faces fragmentation as peace efforts falter

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Sudan's conflict risks irreversible fragmentation amid collapsing diplomatic initiatives and escalating internal divisions, analysts have warned, citing the failure of enforcement mechanisms and withdrawal of domestic political engagement as critical obstacles to peace.

As of mid-2025, the conflict between Sudan's Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) remains intense.

The SAF has gained significant ground in central and eastern Sudan, recapturing key territories including the capital Khartoum. The RSF controls large parts of western and southern Sudan, including Darfur and South Kordofan.

On July 26, the Sudan Founding Alliance, led by the RSF, announced the formation of a parallel government. A day later, the Sudanese government rejected the parallel government, urging other countries not to recognize it.

The Quad meeting on the Sudan conflict, comprising the United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt, was scheduled for July 30, 2025, in Washington.

On July 29, multiple media reports said the meeting was called off. It is reported that the sticking point was the language concerning the role of SAF and RSF in a post-war transitional government, highlighting deep divisions over power-sharing arrangements and the political future of Sudan.

Political science professor Amal Ibrahim Al-Sheikh underscored the structural weakness of past agreements, such as the Jeddah Declaration signed in May 2023. She told Xinhua that the Jeddah Declaration "focused on a ceasefire without any enforcement guarantees, which rendered it merely ink on paper."

"The conflict has shifted from a military confrontation into a war of interests among tribal, political, and economic alliances, which hinders any prospects for a comprehensive resolution," Al-Sheikh said, voicing alarm over potential territorial rupture following the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)'s establishment of parallel governance in Darfur and Kordofan.

"There is now a serious fear of Sudan's actual division," she noted.

Meanwhile, political analyst Khaled Al-Fahal emphasized the vacuum in domestic leadership.

"The decline in domestic political engagement has played a major role in the failure of all political settlement efforts," he told Xinhua.

Urging unified global intervention, particularly from the United Nations and the African Union, political analyst Abdul-Khaliq Mahjoub said, "There must be an effective mechanism to compel the warring parties to an immediate ceasefire."

"An international monitoring body is also essential to separate forces, open humanitarian corridors, and lift sieges on key cities," he told Xinhua, adding that "the longer peaceful solutions are delayed, the more complex the situation becomes, creating new obstacles to negotiations."

Without urgent action and clearly-defined initiatives, Sudan risks becoming a "failed state" fueling regional instability for decades, he said.

Sudan remains gripped by a conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the RSF, which erupted in April 2023. The fighting has killed tens of thousands of people and displaced millions, both internally and across borders, deepening the country's humanitarian crisis.