Belgium votes...and it's going to be complicated

Belgium goes to the polls Sunday in national and regional elections set to see a surge for far-right Flemish separatists that could make forming a new government even more difficult.

The linguistically divided country -- split between Dutch-speaking Flanders in the north and French-speaking Wallonia in the south -- took 493 days to hash together a seven-party governing coalition after the last ballot in 2019.

Now there are fears that figure -- or even the record of 541 days set in 2010-2011 -- could be topped as support grows for the far right in Flanders and far left in Wallonia.

When the results are tallied from the votes, held the same day as EU parliament elections, most eyes will be on how the far-right Vlaams Belang fare.

Three men take part in the set up at a polling station in Enghien, on June 7, 2024, two days ahead of the European Parliament election.

Opinion polls have put them on course to overtake right-wing rivals N-VA to become the biggest party in Flanders -- and also pick up the largest share in the 150-seat federal parliament with 26.

Their rise follows a broader pattern of gains for the far right across Europe and the victory of ally Geert Wilders in neighbouring Netherlands last year.

Headed for a break?

A win for the hardline party pushing for Flanders to become an independent country has fuelled talk that Belgium could be heading for a break-up.

But the doomsayers who have been predicting its demise as a country for years could be proved wrong yet again.

Other parties in Flanders -- including N-VA -- have a long-standing agreement not to let the extreme right into government in the region.

And N-VA leader Bart De Wever, who is angling to be the next prime minister, has repeatedly insisted he will not do a deal with Vlaams Belang this time around either.

"If he did, that would render involvement by N-VA in a federal government impossible in the eyes of French-speaking parties," said Pascal Delwit, an expert at Belgian university ULB.

As things stand, it appears likely that the current seven-party governing coalition of Prime Minister Alexander De Croo will not do well enough to keep a majority in parliament.

The liberal Flemish leader's party and the Greens look set to be particularly hard hit.

De Croo has left the door open for a potential link-up with the N-VA, which would likely struggle to win over leftist French-speaking parties opposed to its push to curb unemployment benefits.

Shift left?

While Dutch-speaking voters look set to lurch to the right, more of their French-speaking compatriots could turn to the far left.

The Socialist Party -- led by another prime ministerial hopeful Paul Magnette --- could have its long-standing dominance in French-speaking areas chipped away by the communist Workers' Party.

According to the latest Ipsos poll, the Workers' Party could score close to 20 percent in the Brussels region and 15 percent in Wallonia.

That means its number of seats in the federal parliament would rise to 19, compared to 12 currently.

If that is coupled with the 26 seats predicted for Vlaams Belang, it means some 45 seats will be taken by radical parties who look set to be excluded from any governing deal.

Playing key roles in forming any government would likely be the French-speaking liberals of the Reformists Movement (MR) and centrist The Engaged, which have both seen upticks in the polls ahead of the vote.