Women in short supply in Kampala, 25 districts

A shortage of women has been recorded in 26 out of Uganda’s 147 districts, signalling a potential demographic shift in the country.

According to the final 2024 National Population and Housing Census Report released by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) earlier this year, while women have historically outnumbered men nationwide, the reverse is now true in these districts.

This shift has raised concerns that if the trend continues, some men of marriageable age may struggle to find partners.

The affected districts include Bududa, Ngora, Bunyangabu, Kazo, Kitagwenda, Ntoroko and Rwampara, as well as Gulu, Moyo, Yumbe, Wakiso, Ssembabule, Kampala, Rakai, Nakasongola, Masaka city, Lyantonde, Kiboga, Luuka, Kalangala, Buvuma, Kisoro, Buhweju, Dokolo, Butambala and Nakaseke.

The report further reveals that the sex ratio, which is the number of males per 100 females, has increased by 8.3% compared to the 2014 census, which had identified only 24 districts where men outnumbered women.

Contributing factors

While the report does not provide a definitive explanation for the trend, experts suggest factors such as migration patterns, economic opportunities, and social dynamics could be influencing the shift.

Nationally, the report shows that generally, females outnumber men by 1.2 million. In 2014, when the previous census was done, this number stood at 400,000.

This is due to a sustained decline in the country’s sex ratio over the last five decades, which has seen the population of females outstrip that of the males. According to UBOs, Uganda’s sex ratio reduced from 101.6% in 1969 (about 101 males for every 100 females) to 94.6% in 2024 (about 95 males for every 100 females).

Kampala, Buganda worst hit

However, according to the report, of the named districts, Kampala had the lowest number of females per male.

Kampala had a shortage of 212,046 females compared to males.

Going by the figures, it means that for every 44 females that live in Kampala, there are 100 males.

That would mean that 56% of the males would likely not get wives in Kampala unless they shared existing ones or searched elsewhere.

According to the report, more than three quarters (12) of the districts named were from Buganda region, six (7) from Western Uganda, four (4) from the north and three (3) from the east.

Stella Kigozi, the former director for information at the National Population Council, said: “Buganda is where most hubs of production and employment are found. Because of that, Buganda tends to see more migrations to take advantage of the available opportunities.”

This view is corroborated by the 2024 census report which shows that the Kampala capital city in-migration hit 56.9%. This was followed by Buganda (22.5%), Bunyoro (21.2%) and Toro (20.4%). On the other hand, West Nile at 6.1% and Sebei 6.3% had the lowest in-migration.

She said this perhaps explains why areas with the highest migrations have comparatively fewer women populations. She added that by nature men migrate more because society expects them to be breadwinners for their families.

Dr John Ssekamatte Ssebuliba, a retired population and development consultant, also cited migration as perhaps the main cause of the imbalance in the sex ratio between females and males.

He said, although traditionally it is men who used to migrate more, the trends are changing to include women as well. This has heightened with the growing popularity of house servant jobs in the Middle East, which according to a recent report from the gender ministry, saw at least 120,459 people leave Uganda in search of employment in the two years to December 2023.

The majority (at 77.5% or 109,773) of these were women compared to 10,686 males. About 89.1% (107,448) of them headed to Saudi Arabia.

“That is what is accounting for the reversal,” said Ssekamatte, adding: “Coincidently, for Uganda, there is already a downward trend in fertility.”

He predicted that if the country continues with a heavy migration of females in years to come, Uganda could have a more rapid decline (in sex ratio for females) than what has been seen in some districts.

Dr Jotham Musinguzi, a consultant gynaecologist who also doubles as senior presidential advisor on population affairs said: “There is nothing to worry about; people will always get married and get enough girls (and vice versa).”

He added: “There’s a way nature balances it out; (that is why) you can see the women in Uganda have remained around 50% (of the total Ugandan human population).”

Musinguzi said that for many years, percentages have been oscillating around 48 and 49 (for men) and 50.5 and 52 (for women).

He revealed that this is basically because girl children seem to survive childhood more than boy children.

Similarly, he said women naturally seem to live longer, adding that life expectancy is better for women almost anywhere in the world.

“Biologically, we say the X-chromosome, which is the chromosome for women, is stronger than the Y-chromosome, which is the chromosome for men. So, in other words, to put it more crudely, you can say women are the stronger (of the two sexes),” he said.

However, unlike Musinguzi, Ssekamatte believes the dwindling sex ratio for females (in some districts), can hurt the country. He said one of Uganda’s strategies as highlighted in the National Development Plan III is to harness the demographic dividend that results from of a rapid “decline in fertility to change the population structure from a dependent-heavy structure to a workers-heavy structure.”

“The reason why it should be a concern is, have we invested enough in especially young people to equip them with skills?” he said, adding that on evidence of the high number of young women going out of the country to do odd jobs, that may not be the case.

“If we have not invested enough in them (girls), then it is a big concern.”

He called for an end to practices that encourage migration for low skill jobs such as housemaids, adding that this runs counter to Uganda’s strategy to harness the demographic dividend. He said harnessing the demographic dividend means that the young people must be skilled enough to take up jobs and become wealth creators.

“That (housemaid jobs) is not the kind of employment we had in mind,” said Ssekamatte, a former head of population and social sector planning at the National Planning Authority (NPA).

He added that the migration is not bad for any country if it is for high value jobs because it is a key driver of economic growth in many nations, especially through remittances from citizens living abroad.

“What we need is to equip these young people with marketable skills where they will be productive in high-end jobs not as housemaids and things like that,” he explained. This will help them in creating sizable wealth not only for themselves but also for the country.

“We need as a country to seriously engage our young people and make sure they acquire capable skills in high-end jobs.”

Pastor Solomon Male, the head of Arising for Christ Ministries, says although the numbers of women are dropping in some districts, he believes this does not portend social repercussions when it comes to finding suitors.

Male said this is being “balanced out” by the lack of commitment on the part of men when it comes to marriage.

“If you were to sample men who have women, you would be shocked that although men are many, the number of women who have men are very few. Many are single; they don’t want entanglements with women,” he said, adding that many simply want short-term gratification from women such as sex.

He said the reason it is so is because many are financially unviable, adding that as a result, some men see women as an extra expense which they cannot afford. He said unless the Government practically fights poverty, the country will continue seeing the challenge.

He said the Church can also help by intensifying their cardinal duty of shepherding the flock.

Male’s opinion resonates with Jonas Kasule’s situation. Kasule, 30, a teacher in Kampala, is still unmarried.

Asked why he was yet to settle down, he cited the lack of money to look after a family.

“In Africa, a real man will not allow you to financially take care of him,” he said, adding that although he is seeing some woman in his life he is not ready because of the high cost of living.

Dr Abdul Hafiz Walusimbi, the head of the Shariah department at the Islamic University in Uganda, said there is a need for further investigation about the triggers for the declining numbers in the named districts to better address the consequences of the problem.

“Are the women migrating to other districts or are we seeing more deaths of men in there?” he said.

He said, however, from the perspective of Islam, there should be no worry for men if the number of women are not enough, adding that they can venture out and marry from other areas.

“There is no problem because even according to the Prophet Muhammad’s last speech, all of us descend from Adam. There is no distinction among us irrespective of race and culture and so on,” he said.

When contacted, Tom Lero Aza, the MP for West Moyo in Moyo district, one of the affected districts, said he was aware of the findings. He said the development could be one of the effects of the 1979 war when President Idd Amin was deposed, causing many people to flee and thereby causing an imbalance.

“Whenever there is a war, it is women and children who suffer the most,” he said. He also said Moyo is by nature a hard-to-reach place, adding that as a result many parents could be sending their daughters outside the district to places where they can find better study opportunities. He said in the end these could end up staying there after their studies.

The global picture

Globally, the number of males has exceeded the number of females since the mid-1960s. As of 2021, there were about 44 million more males than females in the global population.

However, this ratio is expected to even out, according to World Population Prospects 2022 that was released by the UN.

In 2021, women comprised 56% of the global population ages 65 and older, including 59% in Europe and Northern America. Their share of the global 65-and-older population is projected to be 54% by 2050.

As populations age, they are more likely to become majority female.