UN, Chad primed for fresh influx of Sudan refugees

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NDJAMENA - With the last army stronghold in Sudan's western Darfur region having fallen to paramilitary forces on October 26, the United Nations expects a mass influx of refugees, but it is unclear how many will actually make it to neighbouring Chad.

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), fighting a brutal war with Sudan's army for more than two years, claimed full control of El-Fasher, having besieged the capital of North Darfur state for nearly 18 months, causing countless thousands of people to flee.

"We have put in place a national contingency plan with UNHCR, IOM and (UN humanitarian coordination office) OCHA to respond to the massive refugee influx," announced Gassim Cherif, Chad's communications minister and government spokesperson, contacted by AFP.

"We are directing humanitarian stocks and identifying new secure sites to accommodate the refugees," said Cherif.

UNHCR coordinator Jens Hesemann told AFP by phone some 90,000 refugees are expected to reach Chad in the coming three months, but "it could, be many more -- or less".

Abdallah Abakar Saleh, charge d'affaires at Sudan's embassy in Chad, estimated the total at some 60,000.

It is difficult to assess how many could reach a border some 300 kilometres (190 miles) from El-Fasher, where the UN has estimated more than 260,000 civilians are stuck.

In the Tawila displaced persons camp, "6,000 refugees have been registered since October 26," said Caroline Bouvard, country director of the NGO Solidarites International.

"Perhaps 2,000 have passed through other access points without being registered, and with the information we are receiving from other towns and villages around El-Fasher, we estimate between 30,000 and 40,000 people," said Bouvard.

Human shields?

Another humanitarian source at the camp warned that the RSF's fighters may be detaining civilians in the city "to use them as human shields" in the event of a counterattack against the paramilitaries.

"I would be quite surprised if there were massive inflows to Chad in the next two weeks," said Bouvard, given the route toward the southwest is rough and costly, with people-smugglers asking for more than $1,000 for passage.

The route toward the northwest meanwhile has been beset with ongoing clashes near the border.

"No matter the number of arrivals, we are preparing to receive people in catastrophic condition," anticipated a country director of one NGO.

"The quickest will take 10 to 12 days to reach Chad, but if they are children and women suffering from malnutrition, it will take 14 to 17 days" with most travelling by cover of darkness.

Hesemann noted the growing context of aid shortfalls but nonetheless called on the international community to offer added support for Chad.

"We are running out of received funds," warned Dermot Hegarty, country director for the Norwegian Refugee Council NGO.

Another NGO director added that "I am taking money from other projects to cope with this new crisis."

Refugee camps in Chad are already saturated, facing risks such as famine and cholera outbreaks.

Hesemann noted that "more than 1.3 million Sudanese have fled to Chad, and we are only meeting 40 to 60 percent of their needs".

Since the conflict began, "Chad has remained in solidarity with our Sudanese brothers, but we are reaching our limits," warned Cherif.

He urged an "immediate" mobilisation of international aid alongside recognition of his country's key regional role as "you cannot make peace in Sudan without Chad".