Ethiopia's megadam: energy revolution and diplomatic crisis

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ADDIS ABABA - Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD), Africa's largest hydroelectric project being inaugurated Tuesday, promises an "energy revolution" for the country but has been a source of deep tensions with neighbouring Egypt for more than a decade.

For Ethiopia, the dam is a national project of historic scale and a rare unifying symbol in a country torn apart by ongoing internal conflicts.

Towering 145 metres high and stretching nearly two kilometres across the Blue Nile near the Sudanese border, the $4 billion megastructure is designed to hold 74 billion cubic metres of water and generate 5,000 megawatts of electricity -- more than double Ethiopia's current capacity.

Some 45 percent of Ethiopia's 130 million people lack electricity, according to World Bank data, and frequent blackouts in Addis Ababa force businesses and households to rely on generators.

Images of the dam are widely shared on Ethiopian social media, the only disagreement being over who should take credit: Tigrayans from northern Ethiopia say former prime minister Meles Zenawi launched the project prior to his death in 2012, while fans of current premier Abiy Ahmed say he was the man who made it a reality.

Analysts argue the GERD, under construction since 2011, could transform Ethiopia's economy, boosting industrial production, enabling a shift toward electric vehicles, and supplying power-hungry neighbours through regional interconnectors that stretch as far as Tanzania.

▪️Ethiopia's multi-billion-dollar dam promises economic boost

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is seen here in February 2022

The dam also promises to bring in much-needed foreign currency from increased electricity exports, tourism and fishing.

"This is an energy revolution," said energy expert Tigabu Atalo.

'Existential threat'

But neighbouring Egypt, dependent on the Nile for 97 percent of its water, sees a looming disaster.

With a population of 110 million and little rainfall, Egypt's reliance on the river is absolute.

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has repeatedly called the dam an "existential threat" and vowed Egypt would take all measures under international law to defend its water security.

"Whoever thinks Egypt will turn a blind eye to its water rights is mistaken," he told reporters last month.

The standoff has sharpened regional rivalries. Egypt has strengthened ties with Eritrea and Somalia -- both of which have tense relations with Ethiopia -- and coordinates closely with Sudan, which also worries about reduced flows.

Attempts at mediation by the US, World Bank, Russia, the UAE, and the African Union have all faltered over the past decade.

"For the Egyptian leadership, GERD is not just about water, it is about national security. A major drop in water supply threatens Egypt's internal stability. The stakes are economic, political and deeply social," said Mohamed Mohey el-Deen, formerly part of Egypt's team assessing GERD's impact.

The tensions have not been all bad for Ethiopia's government.

"Ethiopia is located in a rough neighbourhood and with growing domestic political fragility, the government seeks to use the dam and confrontation with neighbours as a unifying strategy," said Alex Vines, of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

'Not a threat'

While experts say a direct military strike on the dam is unlikely, Egypt is expected to intensify diplomatic efforts.

"All-out conflict is unlikely, but... access to Nile waters is an existential strategic priority for Cairo (and) this is a region where proxy conflict flourishes," said Vines.

Ethiopia's prime minister has repeatedly sought to reassure neighbours, insisting the project poses no harm downstream and comparing it to Egypt's own Aswan High Dam.

"The Renaissance Dam is not a threat, but a shared opportunity," Abiy said in July.

Abel Abate Demissie, of British think tank Chatham House, agreed.

"The Nile is sufficient for all upstream and downstream countries if it is managed properly," he told AFP.

"The only solution is diplomacy... We have a long journey ahead to achieve that."