Nigerian parties pick candidates for 2027 presidential race

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LAGOS — Nigeria's nearly two dozen political parties begin holding their presidential primaries starting from Saturday to choose their candidates for national elections in January next year.

The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is expected to field incumbent President Bola Tinubu, 73, to run for a second term.

Widespread discontent with Tinubu's economic reforms, which the government and analysts say have revived the economy and attracted investors, as well as worsening security, may hamper his bid for re-election.

But the opposition is in disarray, and the disunity among them may just hand Tinubu an easy victory.

AFP looks at the state of play with eight months to go:

What are Tinubu's re-election chances?

A fractured opposition, personal influence, the advantage of being the incumbent and geographical spread of his ruling APC make Tinubu a favourite to win the January 16 election.

Regarded as one of Nigeria's shrewdest political strategists and dealmakers, Tinubu has maintained a tight grip on the political field since coming to power in 2023.

From controlling 21 of the country's 36 states in 2023, the party now controls 31.

Who are the leading opposition figures?

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which ruled Nigeria for 16 years, and the Labour Party were the main threats in the last polls. They lost to the APC, which has held the presidency since 2015.

Now the PDP is splintered into two factions, while the Labour party has all but collapsed in recent years.

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) have in the past months emerged as the new and loudest opposition voices.

Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar and Rabiu Kwankwaso, who all challenged Tinubu in the last election, initially banded together in an ADC-led grouping.

But it has since disintegrated.

What happened last time?

Tinubu won the 2023 poll with 36.6 percent of the vote. Abubakar took 29 percent, Obi 25 percent and Kwankwaso just over six percent.

Analysts said a repeat was possible.

The wheels came off the idea of a united opposition a few weeks ago, when Obi and Kwankwaso switched parties to join the NDC, as their supporters rallied around what they have dubbed the "OK" movement.

"The opposition has spent their energy fighting themselves rather than building a synergy," Remi Aiyede, political scientist at the University of Ibadan, told AFP.

Who the opposition blames?

The PDP, ADC and Labour Party are currently in court over internal leadership tussles.

The opposition figures have blamed the infighting on alleged infiltration of their ranks by the APC.

"Nigerian state and its agents" have deliberately weakened the opposition through "endless court cases, internal battles, suspicion and division", Obi has said.

There is no proof of such subterfuge in a country with dramatic and conspiratorial politics and politicians that jump parties at the drop of a hat.

Femi Gbajabiamila, House of Representatives ex-speaker-turned Tinubu's chief of staff, was caught on camera urging a legislator, Leke Abejide, to "stay in the ADC, fight them and scatter them".

Although Abejide said the comments were made in jest, he has since defected to the ruling APC.

The PDP, which was in power between 1999 and 2015, has been the hardest hit. It is down to just one governor, having had 13 in 2023.

But analysts say some of the legal struggles were self-inflicted, citing lack of internal democracy .

Tinubu once mocked the opposition's troubles, saying it is "indeed such a pleasure to witness you in such a disarray".

What roles do religion and ethnicity play?

Opposition efforts have also been hampered by religion, ethnicity and geography -- powerful forces in Nigerian politics.

Africa's most populous nation is roughly divided between a Christian-majority south and a mostly Muslim north, with politicians often whipping up fears of unfair domination by one side or the other.

Tinubu, a southerner, took up the presidency following northerner Muhammadu Buhari's two terms. For some, that passed power back to the south -- though Tinubu, like Buhari, is Muslim.

Given that many see it as still the south's "turn" after Buhari's eight years in power, analysts say the opposition stands a better chance if they unite behind a southern candidate.