Halfway through term, economic, security turnaround eludes Nigeria's Tinubu

ABUJA - Anthonia Bayero does not need the latest central bank statistics to understand the Nigerian economy: it is all there in the "puff puff" she is frying on the pavement.

Two years ago, the crispy, doughnut hole-style snacks sold for 50 naira. Amid rampant inflation, she has kept the price the same but halved the size.

"All we pray for is for God to help us," the 24-year-old told AFP at a market in the capital, Abuja, dough sizzling in the oil.

Her experience has been shared across Nigeria during the first two years of President Bola Tinubu's tenure, marked by the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation as the government carries out reforms supported by many economists, but which in the short term have seen the naira currency plunge.

At the same time, as Tinubu rounds the halfway mark of his term this month, a resurgence of jihadist attacks in the northeast killed more than 100 civilians in April alone, while a governor in the region warned that the armed forces were losing ground.

"Oil production has improved, GDP growth has improved," said Nnamdi Obasi, senior Nigeria adviser at the International Crisis Group, an NGO. "But the man in the street is looking at: has the cost of living improved? Does he feel more secure travelling from point A to point B?"

Continued insecurity

Conflict is not new in Nigeria -- from kidnapping gangs in the northwest to oil theft in the southeast.

But a spate of unsolved massacres this year in Plateau and Benue states -- where herders and farmers often clash over land access -- left more than 150 people dead in a month.

Repeated jihadist raids on military installations in the northeast have left Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province well-armed, while a recent Nigerian intelligence report seen by AFP warned of "mutinies" from soldiers over late payment of salaries.

"Tinubu is not the cause of the security crisis in the country," said Confidence McHarry, lead security analyst at SBM Intelligence, a consultancy in Lagos. At the same time, the president's "handling of security has not seen any improvements".

The economy itself has also proven deadly: a stampede this month in Borno state, at a cash handout by the Red Cross, killed three. Careening gasoline tankers have killed scores -- not from the crashes, but from explosions that rip through crowds gathered to scoop up spilt petrol.

According to Doctors Without Borders, more than a quarter of a million children with severe acute malnutrition were admitted to outpatient facilities supported by the group in 2024, an increase of 38 percent compared to 2023. The numbers are on track to get worse this year, amid a deadly combination of rising food prices, displacement and Western aid cuts.

Oil production up

That is despite macroeconomic indicators rising: oil production recently hit 99 percent of Nigeria's 1.5 million barrels per day OPEC quota, almost unimaginable two years ago when production slumped under one million bpd.

Nigeria recorded 3.4 percent GDP growth last year, while some economists are cautiously optimistic that an economic turnaround is near after the shocks caused by dropping costly fuel subsidies and liberalising the naira exchange rate -- reforms that have caused brutal inflation but are supported by the International Monetary Fund.

Tinubu media adviser Daniel Bwala said that "the president took tough decisions that put Nigerians in a bit of hardship", calling the reforms to the byzantine oil and monetary sectors "the only option on the table".

The president, accepting on Thursday his party's nomination for the 2027 vote, promised that "the resuscitation of the Nigerian economy is on".

On the security front, a new theatre commander has been posted to the northeast's embattled Borno state and the military has promised new material for troops.

Ramentu Ahmed, an Abuja resident, noted that her restaurant had been busy every day even though she has had to continually raise prices.

She added that it was only fair for Tinubu, a southerner, to receive two terms, following eight years in power by northerner Muhammadu Buhari -- a sensitive subject in a country where regional jostling plays an outsized role in politics.

With any eventual economic relief still potentially years away, Tinubu "will suffer politically" in 2027, to some extent, said economic commentator Kelvin Emmanuel.
But two years out from the next vote, the opposition remains fractured, with dozens of politicians defecting to Tinubu's All Progressives Congress.

Push-back from the streets is muted. Recently, cost-of-living protests saw 21 people killed by security forces, according to Amnesty International.

However people may feel about Tinubu, they have not resurfaced.