2026 Elections: Unpredictable weather patterns worry farmers

FARMING HARDSHIPS

In Uganda’s farmlands, hope and hardship now grow side by side. From Bukomero, where rains come too soon and threaten ripening of maize, to Nakasongola’s cattle corridor, where herds trek miles in search of water, the story is the same — farmers are struggling to survive in a climate that no longer follows the seasons. 

This, in turn, is threatening food security in the country, writes Joshua Kato

I had expected my maize to start drying at the end of this month,” says Meridah Kitonsa, as she walks around her 10-acre maize shamba, near Bukomero, off the Bukomero-Kyankwanzi murram road. 

Planted in April, this year, Kitonsa’s Bazooka maize type did well. In the middle of July, the cobs had started drying. But to Kitonsa’s surprise, the rains started. 

“My worry is that I may not be able to dry this maize. This weather is very unpredictable now and it is costing us yields,” she said. Kitonsa says, unfortunately, no body predicted the unusual rain pattern. In Migyera, Nakasongola district, still in July, Steven Kigula accompanied his cows to a watering dam, about 3km away. 

“This is the only area that has water at the moment. The dry season has beaten us hard,” Kigula said. This part of Nakasongola district is in the cattle corridor, which is extremely dry, between June and July. 

“We need help to mitigate these adverse dry seasons. We are making losses because of this,” Kitonsa said.

The survey 

According to the Vision Group citizen survey, poor weather was cited as one of the main challenges affecting farmers across the country.

Other issues included lack of irrigation, limited access to extension services, low market access, poor sources of funding and financing, and fake farm inputs. The survey was conducted between March and May, this year, across 58 districts in 17 sub-regions in the lead-up to the 2026 general election.

It sought to assess voter perceptions on key political, social, and economic issues shaping the 2026 general election. It also sought to identify critical policy issues that citizens expect political parties and candidates to address. 

It covered 6,006 eligible voters (aged 18 and above) through a stratified random sampling method, ensuring demographic and regional balance. 

The survey highlights key challenges and opportunities, emphasising the need to address socio-economic priorities, strengthen democratic participation, combat corruption, and adopt inclusive leadership and media engagement across all regions and demographics. 

According to the survey, farmers face significant climate challenges, especially water stress and pests, but are seeing improvements through adaptation measures like irrigation and balanced rainfall. 

At the same time, they are diversifying how they market produce — shifting from traditional methods to direct and digital channels — with resilience and innovation in both climate response and market engagement. 

The data highlights the most pressing issues affecting communities, with 15% of the respondents mentioning food security as one of the issues affecting them, especially farmers. 

Health emerged as the top concern, cited by 53% of the respondents, followed by education (35%), poverty and road network/transport at (29%), indicating widespread socio-economic and infrastructure challenges and the need for improved public services and livelihoods. 

Other issues were employment (19%), water and sanitation (16%), national security (15%), energy access (13%), and land (8%). Although these were mentioned less frequently, they remain relevant to the community well-being and development.

Uganda: A farming country

Agriculture has long been the backbone of Uganda’s economy, deeply entwined with its history, culture, and livelihoods. 

The recently-concluded national census 2024 affirms this. According to the census, 68% of the population is engaged in agriculture. 

With 61% of households engaged in crop production and 37% involved in livestock farming, agriculture remains the primary source of income and sustenance for the majority of Ugandans. 

Due to this, all politicians campaigning at any level of leadership must give priority to the sector in their manifestos. 

Uganda’s agricultural prominence dates back to the early 20th century, when British administrators like Sir James Hayes Sandler and Sir Hesketh Bell prioritised crop cultivation. Cotton and coffee — introduced during this era — laid the foundation for Uganda’s export economy. 

By Uganda’s independence in 1962, agricultural revenues funded infrastructure projects like the Owen Falls Dam.

However, the sector suffered under subsequent regimes, particularly during the economic turmoil of the Idi Amin era and the Obote II government. The UBOS census reveals that 53% of households are practising subsistence farming and 17% engaging in commercial agriculture. 

Sub-regions, such as Bunyoro, Ankole, Elgon, and Buganda lead in commercial farming (27%), while Karamoja is at 7%. 

Notably, households in sub-regions of Teso (87%) and Lango (83%) demonstrate the highest participation in subsistence agriculture. Analysts believe that these are statistics that politicians from these sub-regions should get interested in. 

According to the Citizens’ Manifesto, agriculture-related issues were highest in Karamoja at 31%, followed by Acholi (25%), Lango (22%), Busoga (14%), Ankole (13%), Buganda (10%), and lowest in Kampala (7%). Livestock farming has seen considerable growth.

Sub-regions like Acholi and Lango boast the highest local chicken ownership (87% and 83%, respectively). 

By region, the central part of the country has the highest hybrid chicken. According to statistics of the 2021 livestock census by the agriculture ministry, there are 3.3 million hybrid/exotic cows in Uganda. 

About 1.1 million (60%) and 1.35 million (45%) herds of exotic cattle are in western and central regions, respectively. 

Consequently, these regions produce about 80% of the milk consumed in Uganda, which also translates to the wealth of farmers in these areas. By sub-region, areas with a high number of exotic herds include Elgon, with 50% of their herd being exotic, Toro, Bunyoro and Kigezi, at 24% each. 

On the other hand, out of a national herd of 17 million head of cattle, Karamoja has an estimated 2.8 million. Only 0.5% of the cattle in Karamoja are exotic, according to the livestock survey. 

By district, the highest concentration of cattle is in Kotido, with nearly 700,000 head of cattle, followed by Kaabong with over 500,000 and Moroto, with around 450,000. 

The most grown crops in the country are maize (49%), beans (44%), sweet potatoes (30%) and bananas (27%). Elgon sub-region leads in sweet banana farming, with 50% of the households engaged in its cultivation.

Farmers still poor

Findings from the 2024 UBOS household survey show that more than 7.3 million Ugandans — nearly one in six citizens — live below the poverty line, defined as earning less than $1(sh3,663) per day, per person. 

Majority of these are found in areas like Karamoja, Teso and parts of northern Uganda (Lango and Acholi), which largely depend on agriculture. 

Although the number of people living in poverty remains high, the survey offers a glimpse of hope. Uganda’s poverty rate has fallen over the past three decades to 16.1% in 2023/24, from 56.4% in 1992/93.

Poor weather  

Unpredictable weather was one of the biggest issues raised by farmers in the Vision Group Citizens’ Manifesto survey. At her farm on the outskirts of Soroti town, Teddy Wabomba Wanzunula has several tanks in which she stores water for her animals and crops. 

This means she does not depend on rain for farming. “But there are hundreds of other farmers who cannot afford to do this,” Wanzunula says. 

Also a farmers’ trainer, Wanzunula says if they can irrigate, then food security can be improved. Jennifer Katumba and five other women grow cabbages on half an acre in Kanamba village, Mityana district. 

Recently, irrigation sprinklers were installed to provide water, thanks to the Government mini-irrigation project. 

“We used to wait for rain to cultivate, and whenever it stopped, that was all. But now, we shall keep on producing crops, even in the dry spell,” Katumba says.
 
Another group of 19 women under Agali Awamu Farmers Group, led by Florence Nantale in Kanamba, is destined to produce more onions on their plot measuring half an acre, thanks to irrigation.

“We expect to produce over 10 sacks of onions. Our work has been boosted with the sprinklers,” Nantale said. In Kapchorwa district, Stephen Chemonges, an Irish potato grower, believes irrigation is no longer a luxury, but a necessity in farming. 

“I have so far invested about sh7m to bring piped water from the main water source to my farm,” Chemonges said. Most of the expenditure went into acquiring sprinklers and installing irrigation lines across his fields. 

“Fortunately, we already had piped water in the area. So, I didn’t have to spend much on water access itself. My focus was mainly on the distribution system within the farm.” 

Rowland Abaho, the owner of Joyrows Innovations Farm located in Rwenkuba, Ibanda district, said weather challenges come in form of droughts. 

“We have a challenge of drought and we have started installing irrigation systems, now covering 70%, such that we stay in business all year round,” Abaho says. 

Terezia Nsabimaana, a farmer in Kabende village, Kabarole district, says lack of water is a major obstacle. 

Although her farm is near River Sogayi, she lacks the funds to buy the equipment needed to pump water to her gardens.

According to the National Irrigation Policy 2017, irrigated land produces 40% of the national food. However, Uganda’s ratio of cultivated area under irrigation to the irrigation potential is currently at only 1.5%. 

Stephen Juma, a farmer, waters his vegetable garden using the irrigation system.

The comfort of receiving rains to sustain two cropping seasons in a year has provided little impetus to the Government to invest extensively in irrigation. 

“Despite the advantages that the country holds in the ease of undertaking irrigation development, the potential has not been harnessed,” the policy said. 

Uganda’s rain-fed agriculture has progressively been constrained by frequent threats and actual occurrence of droughts and floods, affecting efforts for increased production. 
This is worsened by the increased pressure on natural resources (mainly wetlands and forest covers), leading to environmental degradation. 

“Uganda has one of the highest irrigation potentials in the world, with over 15% of her surface area covered by fresh water resources. The sum of the external and internal renewable surface water resources (the average annual river flow generated from precipitation) in Uganda amounts to 43.3 billion cubic metres per year, while the dependence ratio (proportion that originates outside the country) was about 69%,” the policy said. 

There is a water source in every region of the country. For example, the central region has River Nile, River Mayanja, River Kafu, River Sezibwa plus Lake Victoria as the main water body. 

Western Uganda has rivers like Rwizi in Ankole, Mubuku in Kasese, Lakes Mburo and Albert, which can offer water for irrigation. 

The north has River Aswa, River Nile while the Bukedi sub-region has River Mpologoma confluence. The National Irrigation Policy says the present utilisation rate of the internal renewable water resource is low, at just 2.8%. 

“If the full irrigation potential was to be exploited, the demand for water would increase by over 400% by 2030, translating into a utilisation rate of renewable surface water resource of 0.05%,” the policy said. Data shows that there is more usage of water by farmers in western Uganda, especially among cattle keepers, the central region, and Elgon areas — compared to Teso and Karamoja.

Government intervention 

The Government has invested in irrigation in order to boost agricultural production. This is because the provision of water for irrigation reduces the likelihood of crop failure, on account of water scarcity. 

Although Uganda’s irrigation area has increased from 22,976 hectares to 23,141 hectares, the country has an irrigation potential of 3.03 million hectares. 

In order to achieve this goal, the Government is accelerating the construction of solar-powered irrigation schemes, medium-scale irrigation schemes, earth dams, communal and individual valley tanks and large-scale irrigation schemes across the country. 

According to data by the water ministry, construction of 92 solar-powered irrigation schemes has been completed, and these will cover an area of 900 acres. 

These are in the districts of Apac, Buhweju, Buikwe, Bukomansimbi, Buliisa, Bushenyi, Butambala, Buvuma, Gomba, Hoima, Isingiro and Kakumiro. 

The new solar-powered irrigation schemes have benefited 111,600 farmers, and the production yield from 112 schemes has increased to 3,600 tonnes per season.

The major crop enterprises in these irrigation schemes include green pepper, onions, Irish potatoes, watermelon, tomatoes, apples, cabbages, pineapples, coffee, eggplants, vanilla, grapes, mangoes, and pumpkins. 

According to the water ministry, construction works are also ongoing for 22 solar-powered irrigation demonstration sites in the districts of Kabarole, Kyenjojo, Kole, Gulu, Napak, Abim, and Nakaseke. 

In Nakaseke district, for example, construction works for Kirema Phase I, a medium-scale irrigation scheme, has been completed, adding a total of 124 hectares and benefiting 50 farmers engaged in growing coffee, passion fruits, maize, and bananas.
 
Construction works for Wadelai irrigation scheme (1,000 hectares) in Pakwach district stand at 93.5%, works at Namaitsu medium-scale irrigation scheme in Bududa district are at 70%, while Kawumu irrigation scheme is at 90%, among others.

Government interventions 

The Government has invested in irrigation in order to boost agricultural production. This is because the provision of water for irrigation reduces the likelihood of crop failure on account of water scarcity.

Although Uganda’s irrigation area has increased from 22,976 hectares to 23,141 hectares, the country has an irrigation potential of 3.03 million hectares.

In order to achieve this goal, the Government is accelerating the construction of solar-powered irrigation schemes, medium-scale irrigation schemes, earth dams, communal and individual valley tanks, and large-scale irrigation schemes across the country.

According to data by the water ministry, construction of 92 solar-powered irrigation schemes has been completed, and these will cover an area of 900 acres. These are in the districts of Apac, Buhweju, Buikwe, Bukomansimbi, Buliisa, Bushenyi, Butambala, Buvuma, Gomba, Hoima, Isingiro, and Kakumiro.

The new solar-powered irrigation schemes have benefited 111,600 farmers, and the production yield from 112 schemes has increased to 3,600 tonnes per season.

The major crop enterprises in these irrigation schemes include green pepper, onions, Irish potatoes, watermelon, tomatoes, apples, cabbage, pineapples, coffee, eggplants, vanilla, grapes, mangoes, and pumpkins.

According to the water ministry, construction works are also ongoing for 22 solar-powered irrigation demonstration sites in the districts of Kabarole, Kyenjojo, Kole, Gulu, Napak, Abim, and Nakaseke.

In Nakaseke district, for example, construction works for Kirema Phase I, a medium-scale irrigation scheme, has been completed, adding a total of 124 hectares and benefiting 50 farmers engaged in growing coffee, passion fruits, maize, and bananas.

Construction works for Wadelai irrigation scheme (1,000 hectares) in Pakwach district stand at 93.5%, works at Namaitsu medium-scale irrigation scheme in Bududa district are at 70%, while Kawumu irrigation scheme is at 90%, among others.

Citizens speak out

Moses Byangwenyima, the chairperson of Rukoma cell in Birere sub-county, Isingiro district: A lot of focus should be put on irrigation programmes. Weather conditions are no longer predictable, and because of that, our production is reducing season after season.

Once farmers are empowered with irrigation schemes, this can help us to have better harvests, at least twice a year, like it used to be when seasons were normal.

Businge Ahumuza, youth leader in Kikuube district: The Government should support the farmers with farm inputs at subsidised prices so that they can be able to benefit from their produce. “Many of our farmers are using fake inputs, which give them low yields.”
 
Shakirah Nakato Kalumba, a woman leader from Bukomansimbi district: The Government should protect farmers by constructing and improving roads, especially in rural areas, a matter that determines prices and costs. Also, counterfeit drugs and agricultural inputs should be stopped to protect farmers. 

Silver Mugarura, the chairperson of the NRM in Nyamuyanja parish, Isingiro district: Our district used to be Uganda’s food basket, but it is now prone to drought. In seasons when there is drought, we cannot have better yields. Much funding should focus on supporting districts like ours, that are contributing greatly to the country’s food production.