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OPINION

By Alex Bashasha

Social media is awash with praises for the young people in Kenya for continuously occupying the streets of various cities and towns in their country.

They are praised for exerting pressure on the government, leading to the dismissal of the entire cabinet and resignation of the inspector general of police. They attacked and burnt part of parliament and set ablaze the Uganda House — the seat of Uganda’s High Commission in Kenya.

Now they want President Samuel Ruto to go. The question is; if Ruto goes, what is next for Kenya?

One thing that has come out clearly in most of these street protests is that the young people do not show any sign of having or being under any kind of leadership. This puts a country at high risk of falling into anarchy. It happened in Somalia and Haiti to mention but a few.

In the 1980s, Somalis in less favoured clans began to chafe under the government’s rule. Mohammed Siad Barre’s ruthlessness could not suppress the opposition, which in 1990 began to unify against him. After joining forces, a combined group of rebels drove Barre from Mogadishu in January 1991.

In 1991, the Somali government was overthrown by opposing clans. The clans failed to agree on a replacement for the national leader and Somalia plunged into turmoil, clan warfare, and lawlessness. Power struggles between clan warlords resulted in thousands of people being displaced, wounded and killed.

The growing civil war only increased the hunger and malnutrition already rampant due to the drought and famine. By early 1992, as many as 350,000 people in Somalia had died from starvation, with another 80,000 people having fled to neighbouring countries. The country stayed for almost 20 years with no government until Uganda and Burundi intervened to create a bit of order, leading to re-establishment of the government.

Recently, Kenya sent a contingent of police officers to Haiti to help restore peace as a prerequisite for re-establishing the government. Here, the protests began in cities throughout Haiti on July 7, 2018 in response to increased fuel prices. Over time, these protests evolved into demands for the resignation of Jovenel Moïse, the then president of Haiti.

Although Haiti has faced instability throughout its history, the current situation stems from Moise’s assassination in 2021. Since then, the country has been without a president or a functioning government. There have been no elections, and the tenure of the members of the last national assembly expired in 2023. The country fell into the hands of criminal gangs. It stems from the boys who exhibited a great deal of courage in confronting the police and army during the protests.

When calling for protests, all are encouraged to take part. This creates an opportunity for street thieves, drug addicts and other criminals to engage in crime.

The protests like the ones taking place in Kenya and Bangladesh currently are not new; they have happened in many other countries and indeed some governments have fallen. But do young people get what they want or achieve their objectives and aims. Those who actively take part in the protests resort to seeking refuge in other countries using their participation in the protests as reasons for applying for visas.

We saw it in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and the question is, did the young people in these countries benefit from the protests and riots that led to overthrow of governments?

In Egypt, the death of Khaled Saeed in June 2010 became a similar rallying point for activists in Egypt. Increasing use of social media among activists centered on plans for a nationwide protest on January 25, 2011. Millions turned out in major cities across Egypt on the 25th, especially in Cairo’s Tahrir Square.

Mubarak initially gave concessions, including the dissolution of parliament, agreeing to oversee a process of reform, and promising not to run for re-election in September 2011. The protesters, however, were not satisfied and by February 8, there were widespread calls for Mubarak’s resignation. By the next day, February 11, 2011, he had resigned.

After the revolution against Mubarak and a period of rule by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, the Muslim Brotherhood took power in Egypt through a series of popular elections, with Egyptians electing Islamist Mohamed Morsi to the presidency in June 2012.

Worsening economic conditions, deteriorating public services, and a string of sectarian incidents exacerbated political polarisation and strengthened opposition to Morsi’s rule. Clashes between Morsi’s supporters and critics in late June 2013 culminated in massive anti-Morsi protests around the country on June 30, the first anniversary of his inauguration.

On July 3, the military made good on its ultimatum, suspending the constitution and removing Morsi from the presidency. Morsi was placed under arrest, along with several other Muslim Brotherhood leaders.

The Muslim Brotherhood was formally outlawed in September. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who had led the ouster of Morsi, left the military to run for president and was elected in 2014. In April 2015, Morsi was sentenced to 20 years in prison for inciting violence against protesters. A month later he was sentenced to death for his alleged role in acts of violence.

In 2016 an Egyptian court overturned Morsi’s death sentence and the life sentence against him for conspiring with foreign groups and ordered a retrial. Morsi remained in prison while the new trial was underway. On June 17, 2019, he collapsed while in court and was pronounced dead shortly after.

In Bangladesh, the initial student protests over job quotas took place in 2018 when students urged the government to cancel the 30% of the available jobs that are reserved for the grandchildren of veterans of Bangladesh’s war of independence in 1971. In the early years following independence, the quotas were reserved for war veterans themselves, then expanded to include their children in 1997 and grandchildren in 2010.

Students argued that was clearly discriminatory and needed to change. Trouble reared its head again in June 2024, when a group of people, including relatives of war veterans, went to the High Court and challenged the government’s 2018 order to cancel the quotas. The court ruled that the government order was illegal and restored the quotas in their entirety. On one hand, the young generation claims to be victims of joblessness. Despite the government’s proof of economic growth, they have nothing to show when it comes to job creation.

All over Africa the population continues to grow and many young people continue to graduate yet there is uncertainty as to whether they will get a job.

On another hand, the government and other employers want “experience” while recruiting. They also argue that it is not feasible to put a less experienced young man in a position that requires responsibility. One legislator in Kenya said that these young people have totally nothing apart from their phones and data. How can we trust the country into hands of such people with totally no experience?

Let’s ask ourselves, do constitutions still make meaning in protests/riots and what lessons do we learn from some of these protests? Does it mean that the young people are setting a precedent that whenever we want anything, we should mobilise ourselves, go to street and possibly get it by force?

In South Africa, the native blacks turned their poverty-driven frustrations and anger onto the African immigrants, the majority of whom do odd jobs for a living. The media reported several cases of murder of foreigners and the looting of foreigner-owned business such as convenience shops; is this what we want to see in all countries? Or should we conclude that it is becoming a war between the rich and the poor?

The young people need another approach to address their grievances other than occupying streets. When you mobilise groups of people to go onto the streets you give an open cheque to criminals to openly operate while hiding under your umbrella. Innocent traders are also affected.

Dialogue would be the best option to discuss the challenges, make suggestions towards policy change and also think about the education system that provides for seeking employment other than creating jobs.

Like I wrote before, a handshake between Ruto and Odinga could be the solution to the problem in Kenya.

Prof. Alex Bashasha (PhD) is the Director General of TABKEN Consults on Development and a Fellow of Unicarribean Business School and Patron 2024