Is the oil pipeline project asking for too much to stay alive?

The latest battle in the oil region is not over land grabbing. It is about floods that are threatening to swallow Buliisa district where most of Uganda’s oil has been discovered.

But the investors in the oil sector and Government are punching far below their weight in addressing the drivers of climate change, writes Gerald Tenywa.  

Children with distended stomachs hold their hands at Wanseko landing site in Buliisa. They look frustrated because there is nowhere to play after their homes and playing grounds went under water about three months ago.

“We do not know when the water will ago,” said Olive Kutegeka, a resident of Wanseko. “We have been held captive by the floods.”

The floods in this part of the world, according to Kutegeka and her peers, were last experienced in the 1960s. This has been associated with climate change and the destruction of forests and wetlands which used to act as breaks for the water.

Climate Change is caused by emissions such as carbon dioxide from production processes, which trap heat escaping to the atmosphere thereby causing global warming.

The warming of the earth disrupts rainfall patterns and also melts the ice on mountain tops like the Rwenzori.

Wairindi Oil Well submerrged by floods in Kityanga cell Buliisa town council

Revocatus Twinomuhangi of Makerere University in a recent presentation pointed out that three of quarters of Uganda can grow coffee but this is going to be restricted to a few highland areas due to climate change effects.

In the last 60 years, Uganda’s temperature has increased by 1.3 degrees Centigrade meaning that climate change is taking place in Uganda, according to Scovia Akot, a climate change officer at the Climate Change Department in the Ministry of Water and Environment.

Also, the changing climate has caused increased frequency in floods and droughts in the last three decades.

“We have to adapt and mitigate the impacts of climate change,” said Akot, pointing out that climate is changing and that it will continue changing and that adaptation and mitigation should become the living reality for the population.

The floods in Buliisa have also covered some of the oil wells something that should be a grim reminder that the oil sector will not be spared from bearing the brunt of the impacts of the changing change.

However, the National Environment Management Authority (NEMA) has ruled that the impact from the construction and operation of the oil pipeline on climate change will be insignificant.  

“The impacts of the oil pipeline on climate change are insignificant,” said Dr Tom Okurut, the executive director of NEMA in a recent interview with New Vision.

This is contrary to the spirit behind the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change, according to Dickens Kamukama, the executive director of Africa Institute of Energy and Governance (AFIEGO).

“We expect EACOP to release more than 30 metric tonnes of carbon every year,” said Kamukama, adding that fossil fuels are not clean sources of energy.

He said that Uganda’s oil is waxy and that the oil pipeline will have to be heated up to 50 degrees Centigrade in order to transport the oil.

However, clogging is expected to happen because the waxy material will keep on building on the walls of the oil pipeline.

“This is a waxy oil is going to be heated and there is going to be clogging the oil pipeline,” said Kamukama, adding that most of the climate change impacts will come from clogging and transportation.

“What will be their impact on the clogged material? How will it be disposed of?” Kamukama wondered.

According to Kamukama, cleaning out the clog of waxy materials is going to be the biggest source of emissions that contribute to the changing climate. 

He also pointed the developers and NEMA which is the top Government watchdog on the environment have concluded that the impact of the oil pipeline is insignificant without any data.

“They deliberately ignored the impacts of the EACOP on climate change because quantifying them in monetary terms; it would render the oil pipeline project unprofitable,” said Kamukama.

“The reason why they are not factoring in impacts of climate change into the oil pipeline is that the oil pipeline will not make economic sense.”

He added, “In the Environment and Social Impact Assessment, they (NEMA and developers) are saying that emissions will be insignificant in terms of climate change. But they have not evaluated the carbon emissions and social economic impacts.  They say they will come up with a mitigation plan. But if you have not evaluated you will not have adequate mitigation plan in terms of skills, resources and timelines.”

ELAW (Environmental Law Alliance Worldwide) conducted a critique of the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment study on East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP). This was undertaken on request by the Africa Institute of Governance and Oil.

An understanding of the EACOP must also begin with the fact that world’s temperature has increased by an estimated 0.9 degrees Centigrade as atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide have risen from 290 parts per million (ppm) in pre-industrial times to more than 415 ppm in 2019, an atmospheric level of Carbon dioxide that has not existed since at least three million years ago.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is warning that a further increase of the world’s temperature by more than another 0.6 degrees Centigrade, a consequence of Carbon dioxide levels exceeding 450 parts per million, would have far-ranging catastrophic consequences on humanity, including food security and livability of cities.

Significance of Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. It was adopted by 196 Parties at COP 21 in Paris, on 12 December 2015 and entered into force on 4 November 2016, according to UNFCCC.

“Its goal is to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels”, stated UNFCCC (United Nations Framework to Combat Climate Change).

It added, “to achieve this long-term temperature goal, countries aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible to achieve a climate neutral world by mid-century.”

The Paris Agreement is a landmark in the multilateral climate change process because, for the first time, a binding agreement brings all nations into a common cause to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change and adapt to its effects.

How it works

According to Gloria Namande of UNDP, the contracting parties to the Paris Agreement on climate change including Uganda are obliged to put in place plans for climate action known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs).

The NDCs are five-years plans starting 2015 and Uganda is in the process of updating its NDC. This will continue up to 2030.

In their NDCs, countries communicate actions they will take to reduce their Greenhouse Gas emissions in order to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Countries also communicate in the NDCs actions they will take to build resilience to adapt to the impacts of rising temperatures, according to UNFCCC.

Long-Term Strategies

To better frame the efforts towards the long-term goal, the Paris Agreement invites countries to formulate and submit by 2020 long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies.

The emissions from oil and the potential impact on climate change have not been included in Uganda’s policy on climate change-NDC that ended in 2020.

It remains to be seen whether the emissions will be included in the coming five years NDC and the 2020 long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies or not.

Both policy documents on climate change are being drafted by the Government with support from UNDP.

Photo caption: Houses Submerged at Butiaba landing site in Buliisa