African military coups a recipe for violent extremism  — experts

Lawlessness created by military coups across Africa, especially in the Sahel region, risks eroding the continent’s democratic gains and pushing the continent’s youthful population into the ranks of violent extremist groups, governance experts have noted.

In its report titled Conflicts To Watch In 2026, the Global Conflict Tracker of the Centre for Preventive Action based in New York showed that most of the countries at risk are those in the Sahel belt that have been engulfed by military takeovers, resulting in the proliferation and entrenchment of armed groups that have taken advantage of the vacuum left behind by state collapse.

The report, which was released in early December, noted that the continuing collapse of international counterterrorism support, as well as weakening leadership in regional efforts, has created a vacuum in which violent extremism can expand.

“Organisations including Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), Islamic State in the West African Province (ISWAP), and others have already taken advantage of that vacuum, using countries in the region as platforms to launch indiscriminate attacks on government forces and civilians alike. Other non-state actors, such as the Wagner Group, have also capitalised on the absence of foreign involvement to expand their influence,” the report noted.

It also noted that an escalation of the civil war in Sudan leads to further mass atrocities, civilian displacement, and spillover violence in neighbouring countries.

Commenting on the emerging trend, local analysts in Uganda noted that whereas military coups are sometimes popular, they can never be a cure for governance challenges.

Timothy Chemonges, the executive director of the Centre for Policy Analysis, a civil society organisation, said the recent coups in West Africa reflect deep frustrations with governance, insecurity, and economic hardship, but they are unlikely to strengthen democracy in the long run.

“While military takeovers may remove unpopular or discredited civilian regimes, they do not address the underlying institutional weaknesses that sustain poor governance. In most cases, coups entrench militarism rather than democratic accountability,” he said.

Chemonges, however, added if there is any democratic lesson here, it is not that militaries are a solution, but that weak, unresponsive civilian governance creates conditions where democracy becomes vulnerable.

He said in most cases, coups weaken constitutional order, normalise the use of force in politics, and shrink civic space.

“Even where military leaders promise reform or popular governance, power tends to concentrate, dissent is restricted, and transitions back to civilian rule are delayed or tightly controlled,” Chemonges said.

Michael Aboneka, a lawyer and governance expert, said coups are categorised as unconstitutional change of government under the African Union governance architecture.

“The only recognised means of change of government by the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Good Governance (ACDEG) is elections. What we need to study is why people are increasingly welcoming and supporting coups in Africa,” he said.

John Kakande, a retired editor, says military juntas cannot provide solutions to the economic crisis that Africa is facing.

“Africa is facing an economic crisis characterised by serious unemployment amidst high levels of corruption. The military in many countries is only organ that can effect a change! Unfortunately, this amounts to reversal of democracy. The military intervention won't transition to democratic rule in the countries concerned,” he said.

Rights groups and analysts said whereas such military regimes come to power with anti-western rhetoric while promising reforms, many have ended up entrenching themselves, postponing elections indefinitely.

Benin survives

In Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea Bissau and Niger, the new military leaders had vowed to restore civilian rule by 2025, but none has honoured the promise.

Just when the world thought it had seen the last of coups in West Africa, an attempt was made in Benin on December 7, when several soldiers of the Benin Armed Forces led by Lt Colonel Pascal Tigri announced the overthrow of President Patrice Talon of Benin.

Unlike the coups that toppled leaders in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso between 2020 and 2023, masses did not come out onto Benin's streets in support, AFP reported.

The Republican Guard remained loyal to Talon, repelling an assault on his residence and gradually taking back control of the situation.

It was later helped by strikes from neighbouring Nigeria under the auspices of regional bloc ECOWAS, as well as intervention by French special forces.

During the coup that deposed Niger's president Mohamed Bazoum, the bloc had threatened intervention but ultimately did not act.

But in Benin, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu "seized a golden opportunity to underscore Nigeria's opposition to military coups.

Before it was thwarted, military rulers in West Africa's Sahel region may well have celebrated another anti-Western junta in their neighbourhood because Benin lies on the coast and access to ports is crucial for landlocked Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger -- whose rulers formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in 2023.

However, although they would have welcomed like-minded allies in the region, observers point out there is no concrete evidence they had a hand in the coup attempt.

Analysts highlighted an early flood of false information about the swiftly put-down putsch, as well as questions over whether the alleged ringleader is now in exile in one of their capitals.

"It is clear that the attempt to destabilise the regime in Cotonou was pushing Benin directly into the ranks of the AES," a West African diplomatic source said.

Even as the rebel soldiers appeared on national television in Benin's coastal city of Cotonou to announce President Patrice Talon's overthrow, social media accounts friendly to the junta-led trio of countries pumped out coordinated messages in support of the attempted coup.

Among them was pan-Africanist, anti-Western Beninese influencer Kemi Seba, who was quick to rejoice in Benin's "liberation day" with his 1.5 million followers.

Seba, who accused Talon of being too close to former colonial master France, has been an adviser to Niger's strongman general Abdourahamane Tiani since last year and was granted a diplomatic passport.

"This haste speaks volumes: either the man knew, or he received instructions to amplify things well before the outcome," Fiacre Vidjingninou, a Benin expert in political and military sociology, wrote in the French-language Conflits magazine.

Benin has since issued an international arrest warrant for Seba, alleging "advocacy of crimes against state security and incitement to rebellion".

Seba, whose real name is Stellio Gilles Robert Capo Chichi, has said he plans to "see the fight through to the end".

Alleged coup leader Lt. Col. Tigri is on the run and rumoured to be hiding in one of the Sahelian countries.

"If he is in an AES capital he is safe; there's no risk of him being handed over to Benin," said Seidik Abba, head of the International Centre for Studies and Reflections on the Sahel.

Seeking a coastal ally

Tiani seized power in Niger two years ago and has since closed the border with Benin over allegations that it harbours "French bases" bent on destabilising his country.

Benin and France both denied the claim.

"If the coup had succeeded, it's certain that it would have been good news for the AES," Abba said.

Vidjingninou said the "subtlety of the method" was key.

"Moscow does the same in sub-Saharan Africa: shaping environments rather than issuing direct orders," he said.

The leaders of Burkina, Mali and Niger have made sovereignty their watchword, leaving the West African bloc ECOWAS, while turning away from traditional partner France and closer to Russia.

But they lack a foothold on the sea to transport goods, especially uranium from Niger, one of the world's leading producers of the radioactive metal.

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) at its summit on December 14, was careful not to lay blame on the AES.

"The overlapping economic interests between coastal and Sahelian countries remain strong," Abba said.