What high dependency population ratio means to the economy and security of the country

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OPINION

By Brig. Gen. F. Kulayigye

Titus 3:14 says, “And let our people learn to devote themselves to good works, so as to help cases of urgent need, and not be unfruitful.” And 2 Corinthians 9:6 says, “But this I say, whoever sows sparingly will also reap sparingly, and whoever sows generously will also reap generously.”

The recently concluded National Population and Housing Census 2024 conducted by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics has revealed a higher dependency ratio of children between the ages of 0-17 basing on the preliminary results released. With 50.5% of the country’s population as children and 5.0% as the elderly of 60+, this demographic landscape is bound to have far[1]reaching implications for the economy and security of the nation.

Economic implication

The high dependency ratio, where a smaller working population supports a larger non-working population, contributes to the increased stress and strain on the active producers or working population. A dependent population means little to zero productivity, for it is assumed this age group does not work, neither does it participate in any production process, but rather, are consumers.

While it is true that a large young population can lead to an age structure advantage or population bonus, where a significant workforce drives economic growth, it is also true that if this advantage is not managed properly, it can result in high unemployment rates, which in turn will result in a strain on the economy. The strain on education and healthcare from the large number of children will put immense pressure on the education and healthcare systems, which will require significant investments to ensure quality services, increasing the budget burden on the Government and this will in turn affect the security budget.

Security implications

Because of the budget strain on the Government in its quest to provide quality social services to this less productive population that gives little to no revenue returns, the security budget will be lesser than required yet it must provide for this, “vulnerable,” population.

Since the security budget is unable to cater efficiently for all of the country’s security needs, we are bound to face social unrest, instability and increased crime rates from the unemployed youths, which in turn will compromise the security stand of the nation.

With such ratios, recruitment of these young individuals by extremist groups is more likely to happen as we have witnessed in the past. Since the youth are idle and disillusioned, they may be vulnerable to such recruitments into criminal organisations, cults and extremist groups, thus posing a threat to national security.

The answer to all these lies in putting more emphasis and investing in economic sectors, agriculture, industries, service provision and tourism. With the expansion of these sectors, jobs for the population as it comes of age will be available, ensuring full employment and productivity. This in turn will lessen the financial burden on the Government as there will be revenue returns from the population in form of taxes. We should invest in quality education and skills development for the youths as we focus on vocational training and skill development to prepare the young population for the workforce and equip them with the necessary skills and mindset required for the world of employment and productivity.

We need to encourage entrepreneurship, create job opportunities, and support small and medium-sized enterprises in order to absorb the growing workforce. Emphasis and priority should be placed on the Parish Development Model (PDM). We cannot allow the PDM project to falter in view of the aforementioned. Emphasis on effective family planning programmes to manage population growth and reduce the dependency ratio should be implemented.

We also need to invest in tourism by providing ample security, the necessary and up-to-date infrastructure, community mobilisation of the population on tourism attraction sites, increasing co-ordination between the stakeholders in the sector and the Government.

Youth engagement and empowerment: Engage the youth in decision-making processes, promote their participation in civic activities, and empower them to become positive contributors to society.

The writer is Director Defence Public Information