Experts urge focus on reproductive rights as Uganda launches global fertility report
Muvawala warned that Uganda must act proactively to avoid what he called the "2.1 child crisis," referring to the global replacement fertility rate necessary to maintain a stable population.
Dr Joseph Muvawala, the Executive Director National Planning Authority (NPA) addressing journalists during a press conference at the Uganda Media Centre on July 1, 2025. (Photos by Nancy Nanyonga)
By John Masaba
Journalists @New Vision
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Experts are calling for greater investment in reproductive rights and personal agency, warning that the country could face a new kind of fertility crisis, not of overpopulation, but of unmet reproductive goals.
The appeal was made during the launch of the State of the World Population Report 2025, released globally and in Uganda on July 1, 2025, at the Uganda Media Centre in Kampala.
The report, titled: The Real Fertility Crisis: The Pursuit of Reproductive Agency in a Changing World, shifts focus from population control to reproductive freedom, highlighting the growing mismatch between people’s reproductive intentions and their ability to act on them.
While Uganda’s population currently stands at 45.9 million, according to the 2024 National Housing and Population Census, it is projected to grow to about 66 million by 2035, 78 million by 2045, and between 100 and 110 million by 2075, based on medium-fertility projections.
However, despite these projections, the country's fertility rate is steadily declining—from 6.9 children per woman in 2000 to 4.5 in 2023—a trend experts attribute to economic pressures and limited reproductive choices, especially in urban areas.
“In the past, people had large families because they relied on land and farming. Today, in towns and cities, everything requires money—school fees, rent, food,” National Planning Authority (NPA) executive director Dr Joseph Muvawala said.
“That changes how people plan their families.”
L-R; Ivan Lule Deputy Chairperson NPA, Joseph Muvawala Executive Director National Planning Authority (NPA), Gift Malunga UNFPA Country Representative and Pamela Mbabazi board chairperson National Planning Authority (NPA) launching the World Population Report at the Uganda Media Centre on July 1, 2025. 
Muvawala warned that Uganda must act proactively to avoid what he called the "2.1 child crisis," referring to the global replacement fertility rate necessary to maintain a stable population.
“What we’re seeing globally is not just falling fertility—it’s a widening gap between what people want and what they can achieve. That’s why reproductive agency matters,” he said.
The UNFPA report supports this view, drawing from a global survey conducted in 14 countries representing more than one-third of the world's population. It reveals that many people—regardless of gender—are unable to meet their reproductive goals due to barriers such as lack of access to reproductive healthcare, gender inequality, financial insecurity, and pessimism about the future.
UNFPA executive director Dr Natalia Kanem underscored the report’s key message: “The real fertility crisis isn’t about overpopulation or underpopulation. It’s that too many people still can’t make decisions about their own reproductive lives.”
She added, “One in ten women globally cannot decide whether to use contraception. One in four cannot say no to sex. One in four cannot make decisions about their healthcare. That is the crisis.”
In Uganda’s urban areas, many young couples say they would like to have more children but cannot afford them due to the rising cost of living. The expense of education, healthcare, and basic needs is forcing many to delay or reduce family size, often not by choice, but out of necessity.
To address this, the report calls for a shift in population policy toward a rights-based, people-centred approach. It recommends investing in sexual and reproductive health services, universal education, childcare support, economic security, and gender equality to create enabling environments for empowered decision-making.
Muvawala praised Uganda’s community-level development efforts, such as the Parish Development Model (PDM), which he said helps bring essential services closer to the people.
He also emphasised the importance of keeping children in school until at least age 16 and promoting competence-based education to prepare young people for stable jobs and incomes.
“We must build an ecosystem that supports people’s choices, not pressure them to have more or fewer children based on political or economic agendas,” Muvawala said.
As Uganda prepares to commemorate World Population Day on July 11, the message from this year’s report is clear: the future of population and development lies not in controlling numbers, but in expanding freedoms—especially the freedom to choose.