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OPINION

Last month, the National Resistance Movement (NRM) updated its members register, disagreements in the National Unity Platform (NUP) reached breaking point, the Democratic Party (DP) announced plans for internal elections and the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) split deepened as the Katonga faction contemplated forming a new party. The Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) launched a mobilisation programme and Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) won a byelection.

The ruling NRM seems to have taken the lead in preparing for the 2026 elections.

It updated the membership register from March 13 to 17 and came up with 18.3 million members, including 16 and 17-year-olds. The absence of a credible register opened the party primaries to non-members in 2020, affecting the results in some places. Consequently, claims of irregularities were raised, forcing some to contest as independents in the national elections.

With the register updated, NRM is set to hold the internal elections as per the roadmap released last year.

An estimated four million officials are to be elected and these will lay the foundation for the main party primaries next year.

If each official is assigned to convince at least three people to turn up and vote, this will translate into 14 million votes.

Against the national voters roll at 18 million this would give NRM a 77.8% victory. The party has to find a formula to achieve this amidst internal squabbles.

The rise of the MK Movement in April 2022, headed by Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the first son, was a concern to the ruling party. It looked like an offshoot of the NRM, but also a competitor of the party.

On one hand, its followers from across the political divide praised Gen. Muhoozi as the next president of Uganda and would be on the ballot in 2026.

On the other hand, NRM firmly stated that President Yoweri Museveni who is also the chairman of the party would be on the ballot. The MK Movement was an emerging power centre worrying the NRM.

It was not clear, whether President Museveni had given his son the nod to mobilise and eventually get on the ballot in 2026. Although in early February, MK Movement had rebranded as the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU) and registered as a civil society organisation, its momentum was intact.

It looked like a party, ready to field a presidential candidate, and braced for the contest in the next polls. This prompted NRM cadres, in late February, to meet at Kati Kati Restaurant in Kampala and call on the Central Executive Committee to address the contradictions and come clear about the 2026 presidential flagbearer.

With the appointment of Gen. Muhoozi as Chief of Defence Forces (CDF) and appointing key PLU leaders as cabinet ministers, the NRM internal contradiction may have been addressed.

As CDF, Gen. Muhoozi is back as a full-time soldier and is legally barred from participating in partisan politics. His lieutenants in PLU, Balaam Barugahara and Lillian Aber have been plucked from the day-to-day activities of the organisation as they have to focus on state duties.

NUP is locked in an internal upheaval pitting party president Robert Kyagulanyi (Bobi Wine) and former Leader of Opposition in Parliament (LOP) Mathias Mpuuga, who is the MP for Nyendo-Mukungwe, Masaka.

Kyagulanyi and those leaning to his side want Mpuuga to resign as a commissioner of Parliament because he accepted a sh500m service award. He has been stripped of this position as NUP deputy president — Buganda.

By taking the money, Mpuuga is accused of corruption, which he denies. The party is tearing apart with members and MPs taking either side.

Going by the attendance at a meeting convened by Kyagulani last month, out of 57 MPs only 27 attended, showing the split.

Harsh words have been exchanged as the NUP president is determined to contain Mpuuga who was an emerging power centre in the party. When he was LOP, Mpuuga became the face of the party because of the position that left Kyagulanyi by the wayside.

The fight is not over. So far, it has played out as an act of washing dirty linen in public. Revelations including the absence of a constitution, structures and a National Executive Committee constituted mostly by the Kyagulanyi former stage team are out.

The Firebase that was his back-up team during his days as a musician has transformed into his political unit and is dreaded by most NUP legislators. Also revealed during the fights is the role of Mengo and the Catholic Church.

The two have not appealed for reconciliation when it comes to the fights in the other political parties the way they have publicly done in the case of NUP.

Forum for Democratic Change is split and there is no call for them to reunite. The Najjanankumbi faction is now increasingly looking as the legitimate one with Patrick Amuriat Oboi as president. FDC-Katonga under the tutelage of Kizza Besigye, the party’s founding president is now a splinter group. Last month, some of its members started openly talking about the possibility of forming a new party or merging with any of the existing ones except NRM.

Uganda People’s Congress proved it still exists after it won the Dokolo Woman MP byelection. The seat was previously held by FDC’s Cecilia Ogwal before her death. But the party remains with two factions contesting Jimmy Akena’s presidency.

The Democratic Party though still fractious, released a roadmap to 2026. Today, NEC is expected to convene in Mbale and in August the national delegates conference will meet to elect the presidential candidate. In addition, last month the party embarked on updating its members register.

The Alliance for National Transformation is in the field mobilising supporters. It is a little-known, small but stable party with no conflicts. The stage for 2026 is taking shape.

X: @dmukholi1